This document provides an overview of key concepts related to population geography, including:
- The five stages of population change in the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), from high birth/death rates to low birth/death rates.
- How population structures differ at each stage of the DTM, with changing birth and death rates impacting population pyramids.
- Historic views on the relationship between population growth and resources, from Malthus' pessimism to Boserup and Simon's optimism.
- Factors like migration, wars, and development that influence population structures and change over time.
This document provides an overview of key concepts related to population geography, including:
- The five stages of population change in the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), from high birth/death rates to low birth/death rates.
- How population structures differ at each stage of the DTM, with changing birth and death rates impacting population pyramids.
- Historic views on the relationship between population growth and resources, from Malthus' pessimism to Boserup and Simon's optimism.
- Factors like migration, wars, and development that influence population structures and change over time.
This document provides an overview of key concepts related to population geography, including:
- The five stages of population change in the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), from high birth/death rates to low birth/death rates.
- How population structures differ at each stage of the DTM, with changing birth and death rates impacting population pyramids.
- Historic views on the relationship between population growth and resources, from Malthus' pessimism to Boserup and Simon's optimism.
- Factors like migration, wars, and development that influence population structures and change over time.
KEY WORDS Population Structure; the breakdown of a countrys population into groups defined by age and sex Death Rate; the number of deaths per thousand population per year. Expressed as deaths per thousand (%) Birth Rate; the number of life births per thousand population per year. Expressed as births per thousand (%) Infant Mortality; a measure of the number of infants dying under one year of age, usually expressed as the number of deaths per thousand live births per year. Natural Increase/Decrease; the difference between the numbers of births and deaths for every hundred people per year. Expressed as a percentage. Dependency Ratio; shows how many young and old people depend on people of working age. 100( % 15 + % 65 % 15 64 ) Life expectancy; the average age to which the population lives. Expressed in terms of years. Male and female figures often given separately. Optimum Population; the population at which the quality of life of the people of a country or a region is the highest possible, at a given level of technological development. Overpopulation; when any increase in population reduced the average quality of life of the population. Under Population; when an increase in population could increase the average quality of life. KEY WORDS Famine; a time when there is so little food that many people starve. Starvation; a state of extreme hunger resulting from lack of essential nutrients over a prolonged period. Green Belt; an area defined by Act of Parliament which surrounds a conurbation. It is very difficult to obtain permission for development on a green belt. This acts to stop the sprawl of conurbations. Studentificiation; large family houses too expensive to run are sold and sub divided and let to students. Nature of area starts to change (more noise, gardens untended, cars parked on road etc.) Pressures remaining residents to move out. Area deteriorates. Gentrification; families buy up run down property and improve it, adding to its value. As more people do this it attracts a richer population. The whole area may improve. Conurbation; one large, more of less continuous area created as a city grows and spreads to absorb other cities, towns and villages in the surround area. Infilling; the use of open spaces within a conurbation to build new housing or services, often close to where a green belt restricts outward growth. Brownfield Sites; sites that have been built on before but that have become available for new building because of demolition or redundancy of the old buildings. Social Welfare; the well being of communities. It refers to the access that groups of people or individuals have to job opportunities, education, an unpolluted environment, a safe environment and freedom to practise ones culture, religion etc.
POPULATION INDICATORS Birth rate Death rate Fertility rate Infant mortality rate Life expectancy Net migration rate Differences between the number of immigrants and emigrants Population density Number of people per unit area Natural increase POPULATION CHANGE THE DTM DTM Describes how the population of a country changes over time. It gives changes in birth and death rates and shows that countries pass through five stages of population change Advantages; Universal in concept, therefore can be applied to all countries Timescales are flexible Easy to understand Enables comparisons to be made demographically between countries Proves helpful to government Disadvantages; Eurocentric, assumes that all countries will follow the same progress in terms of socio economic change Doesnt include the role of governments Doesnt include the impact of migration Assumes stage 2 follows industrialisation, but has been seen in many countries to be as a result of imported medical care, better sanitation etc. Doesnt account for countries that have slipped back into past stages due to disease Doesnt have a timescale! Doesnt include the impact of wars, or natural disasters POPULATION STRUCTURES AT STAGE 1 OF DMT Period of high birth and death rate High birth rate; Limited birth control High infant mortality rate Children are future source of income In many cultures children are a sign of fertility Some religions encourage large families High death rate; High incidence of disease Poor nutrition and famine Poor levels of hygiene Underdeveloped and inadequate health facilities POPULATION STRUCTURES AT STAGE 2 OF DMT Period of high birth rate and falling death rate Falling death rate; Improved public health Better nutrition Lower child mortality Improved medical provision POPULATION STRUCTURES AT STAGE 3 OF DMT Period of falling birth rate and continuing fall in death rate Falling birth rate; Changing socioeconomic conditions, eg greater access to education for women Preferences for smaller families Changing social trends and fashions, and a rise in materialism Increased personal wealth Compulsory schooling, making the rearing of children more expensive Availability of family planning, often government supported POPULATION STRUCTURES AT STAGE 4 OF DMT Period of fluctuating low birth and death rates
POPULATION STRUCTURES AT STAGE 5 OF DMT Death rates exceeds birth rate slightly, decline in natural population (Natural decrease) Very low birth rate; Rise in individualism, linked to emancipation of women in the labour market Greater financial independence of women Concern about the impact of increased population on resources Increase in non traditional lifestyles Rise in the concept of childlessness POPULATION STRUCTURES POPULATION PYRAMIDS A population pyramid or age-sex structure is a composition of a population according to age groups and gender. The vertical axis of a population pyramid has the population in age bands of 5 years The horizontal axis shows the number or percentage of males and females. The pyramid shows longevity by its height.
POPULATION STRUCTURES- WHAT CAN POPULATION PYRAMIDS SHOW? The natural increase in specific groups The effects of migration The effects of events like wars, family or disease An indication of the overall life expectancy of a country We can calculate the population dependency ratio HOW MIGRATION AFFECTS THE POPULATION STRUCTURE OF THE ORIGIN AND DESTINATION Origin; Younger age groups migrate leaving behind an ageing population Males are more likely to migrate causing a contraction on that side of the pyramid Birth rates fall and death rates rise Destination; Proportions of younger adults increase Males are more likely to migrate causing an expansion on that side of the pyramid Birth rates rise and death rates fall POPULATION PYRAMIDS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF THE DTM Stage 1 Wide base and concave shape. Low life expectancy and high death rates so there is a thin area on the top of the pyramid Stage 2 Wide base and a triangular shape. Higher life expectancy due to lower death rate, therefore is wider at the top Stage 3 Thinner base than in stage 1 or 2 and convex shape. Higher life expectancy and higher numbers of elderly people Stage 4 Thinner base than in stage 3 and convex shape. Much lower death rate and a higher life expectancy Stage 5 Thinner base than in stage 4 and convex shape, but curving inwards at the bottom. Small natural decrease MALTHUS Pessimistic Population grows at a geometric rate whilst food supply grows at an arithmetic rate. He said this would inevitably lead to famine (Natural checks) unless we limit population growth
Although population grew rapidly, food supply also grew more rapidly due to Agricultural revolution, increased efficiency due to machines, selective breeding. Trade of new agricultural lands, development of British Empire Emigration and subsequent importation of food BOSERUP Optimistic Increases in population stimulate change in agriculture and therefore we will never run out of food supplies
Model a little too optimistic Over farming can lead to the degradation of farmland soils Might come to a point where no more improvements can be made Degradation of animal habitats and biodiversity => Affect food webs => Effect humans Based on idea of closed society Many people, foreseeing a food shortage in their country, would migrate elsewhere. SIMON Optimistic Argued supply of resources is infinite As a resource runs out, the price increases, so people invest time and thought into in producing technology that will; Find more of it Extract more what is already available Discover alternative resources Change the way society is organised to do without that resource
Model focussed more on the economic rather than scientific stand point
THE CLUB OF ROME Pessimistic/optimistic Computer simulation based on future development of the worlds population. If the present growth trends in world population, industrialisation, pollution, food production and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reach in one hundred years It is possible to alter these trends and establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustainable far into the future SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Principles of sustainability agreed in summits like Rio in 1992 and Kyoto 1997: Environmental People at heart of concerns regarding development States have the right to exploit there own environments but not damage those in other states Laws enacted for liability regarding pollution and compensation States should pass information about natural disasters and notify neighbours of the foreseen and accidental consequences of any activities that may cross frontiers Economic The right of development must be fulfilled to meet the needs of present and future generations States should work cooperatively to eliminate poverty Special needs of LEDCs should be given priority Unsustainable production and consumption should be eliminated Appropriate demographic policies should be promoted
NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE AND MIGRATION AFFECT THE CHARACTER OF RURAL AND URBAN AREAS Effects of Migration Economic Costs:
Source Area Destination Area Loss of young adult labour force Loss of those with skills and entrepreneurial talents Cost of educating Migrants Overdependence in some industries in migrant labour Much of the money earned is repatriated Increased number of people pressures resources NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE AND MIGRATION AFFECT THE CHARACTER OF RURAL AND URBAN AREAS Effects of Migration Economic Benefits
Source Area Destination Area Reduced underemployment Returning migrants bring new skills Many migrants send remittances home There is less pressure on resources Take up less desirable jobs Gains skilled labour at reduced cost Skills gap is qualified by skilled migrants Cost of retirement are transferred to the area of origin NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE AND MIGRATION AFFECT THE CHARACTER OF RURAL AND URBAN AREAS Effects of Migration Social Costs
Source Area Destination Area More people encouraged to migrate, detrimental effect on population structure Disproportionate number of females left behind Non returning migrants cause an imbalance in population pyramid Returning retired migrants may impose a social cost in the community Dominance of males is reinforced Aspects of cultural identity are lost Segregated area of similar ethnic groups are created and schools are dominated by migrant children NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE AND MIGRATION AFFECT THE CHARACTER OF RURAL AND URBAN AREAS Effects of Migration Social Benefits
Source Area Destination Area Population density is reduced and birth rate decreases Returning retired migrants increase social expectations in the community Creation of multi ethnic/cultural society increases the understanding of other cultures There is an influx of new and /or revitalised providers of local services There is a growth of ethnic retailing and area associated with ethnic food outlets. CONSEQUENCES OF MIGRATION OUT OF RURAL AREAS People left behind are elderly and of limited means Houses are bought as second homes, creating a ghost town for most of the year Deprivation sets in Sense of isolation takes over in the area CONSEQUENCES OF EXPANSION OF RURAL AREAS Creation of new houses which local people cannot afford Increased traffic congestion as infrastructure fails to cope Conflicts between local people and new comers Maintaining rural identity in an increasingly urban environment is a key issue CASE STUDY 1: COUNTRY AT DIFFERENT STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT - CHINA Since 1950s experienced great changes in population Baby booms in 1950-60 increased population from 562 million to over 820 million Increase in population also caused by rapid falling death rates which created a population growth of 2.8% 1970, china has of world population, only 7% of arable land China feared war, disease and famine 1979, one child policy. Regulations that restrict family size and late marriage. Generally illegal to have more than one child, fined if do Strongly controlled in urban areas. Rural families allowed two children if first was female or disabled Increase in the number of forced abortions and sterilizations Underpinned by a system of rewards and penalties, vary hugely from area to area Very successful (Growth rate decrease from 2.8% to 0.628%) Gender ratio in China a problem, as girls not wanted
CASE STUDY 2: COUNTRY AT DIFFERENT STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT - FRANCE End of WW2, population affected by conflict. 40 million people, same as 1840 Government introduced financial incentives to encourage working women to take time off to have children. State funded day care, cheap nursery schools and 3 year job protection for mothers Measurements not enough, The advantages of having children didnt outweigh the disadvantages for many women Cost of children too high Women wanted to return to their careers Even with the policies, Frances population, now 60.7 million will continue to age 1/3 of the countries population over 60 by 2050, up from 1/5 now Immigration wont change this prediction The increase in fertility rate ( to 1.94) wont change this prediction
CASE STUDY 3: INNER CITY BYKER WARD East of city centre Population of 8220 Houses built for people who worked in the port, ship building and engineering industries that lined the riverside Houses had poor amenities and by 1960 had fallen into a poor state of repair House scheme was designed to rehouse many people in the area. Some others were moved out to new council estates on the edge of the city. Redevelopment included the high rise Byker wall which shelters many low rise housing areas from noise Social housing at present 93% people are white Health is good for 54% of people 2094 people are Level E of social grade (State benefit, unemployed lowest grade workers) 2820 people have no qualifications 21.26% of the population are between 30 and 44 years old CASE STUDY 4: SUBURBAN JESMOND WARD North of city centre Population of 11849 Houses built for owners and managers of factories and commercial premises and the clerical workers in better paid jobs in the city centre Houses were large family houses with space fro several servants. Lower middle classes has smaller houses or Tyneside flats which were terraces with upstairs and downstairs flats Middle of 20 th century, families unable to run large houses without servants. People didnt want low wages and restrictions of servant life. Houses nearer city centre taken by solicitors or dentists. Houses further away let to students Studentificiation has taken hold of that area 87% are white Health is good for 78% of people 4240 people are level A/B social grade (higher/intermediate managerial / administrative / professional) 4657 people are level 4/5 qualifications 28.47% are between 20 and 24
CASE STUDY 5: RURAL SETTLEMENT - LONGHORSLEY 30 km north of Newcastle Population of 1495 Was a stopping place for drovers who led cattle down from the hills of Scotland. In 1950 changed to a successful farming village There were 3 farms, a number of small holdings and around 500 inhabitants Has changed into a commuter area. Also used by non agricultural workers who want to keep horses. Farms have been developed into houses and a number of large private house have been built on the edge of the village 97% white Health is good for 74% 422 people are A/B social grade (higher/intermediate managerial / administrative / professional) 391 people have level 4/5 qualifications 21.77% are between 45 and 59 years old