Modeling of infectious disease and its

control
BY:
SATHISH G
VINAY KUMAR
PREETI SINGH

Some important terms required for modeling

Proliferation:
The activated B-cell starts to divide by mitosis
to form a clone of plasma cells.
Plasma cells are activated B-cells with a very
extensive network of rough endoplasmic
reticulum.
Plasma cells synthesis large amounts of
antibody, which they excrete by exocytosis.


Proliferation of plasma
Cells.
The Secondary Response: Memory Cells
If an antigen invades your body a second time,
a much faster response occurs which produces
much larger quantity of the required antibody.
When activated B-cells are dividing during the
primary response, some cells stop dividing
and secreting antibody and become memory
cells.
Large numbers of memory cells remain in the
body for a long time
they are capable of producing large amounts
of antibody very quickly when stimulated.
Contains
V(t)= Concentration of antigen at time t .
C(t)=Concentration of plasma at time t.
F(t)= Concentration of antibody at time t .
C = baseline production of plasma
= Antigen within-host growth rate
= Rate of destruction of antigen
= Plasma proliferation rate
= Plasma death rate
=Production rate of antibody per plasma cell
=Death rate of antibody
=Immigration rate of antibody
Basic equations

Equation no.:-1
Rate of change of antigens can be considered
as
( -F)
As is the growth rate of antigens and is
rate of destruction of antigens which itself
depends on the concentration of antibody at
time t.
Therefore rate of change of concentration of
antigens at time t within the host body is
dV/dt = ( -F)V

Equation no.:-2
As C is the baseline production of plasma
therefore active concentration of plasma at
time t is (C-C).
Rate of decrease in plasma concentration can
be given as (C-C).
As is the rate of plasma proliferation and
the rate of change of plasma concentration
depends on concentration of antigens and
antibodies
Therefore the rate increase of plasma
concentration is F(t-)V(t-).

Here is the initial time.
Therefore the rate of change of concentration
of plasma can be given as
dC/dt = F(t-)V(t-)-(C-C).
Equation no.:-3
As is the production rate of antibody per plasma
cell therefore it will help in increasing the
concentration of antibodies.
Rate of increase in concentration of antibodies
can be given as CV
As is death rate of antibodies and is the
immigration rate of antibodies.
Therefore the rate of decrease in concentration of
antibodies can be given as
(F-F) + FV
Therefore rate of change of concentration of
antibodies can be given as
dF/dt= CV - (F-F) - FV
Complete model

Mathematical Formation


dV/dt = ( -F)V .(1).

dC/dt = F(t-)V(t-)-(C-C) .(2).

dF/dt= CV - (F-F) - FV (3).

for t<0 , V=0
C= C
F=F

at t=0, V=V
C=C
F=F
Conditions
For the subclinical form dv/dt<0
Thus - F <0
< F

In all other cases: > F
For lethal outcome and chronic form
<
Limitations of Models:
The two classic models presented assume that
the total population size remains constant.
They assume that the population is uniform and
homogeneously mixing. Mixing depends on
many factors including age.
Different geographic and social-economic groups
have different contact rates.
These models ignore random effects, which can
be very important when s or i are small, e.g.,
during early stages.
Thanks for your attention