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State Retrenchments and Class Dynamics: The "New" Middle Class Under Strain
State Retrenchments and Class Dynamics: The "New" Middle Class Under Strain
State Retrenchments and Class Dynamics: The "New" Middle Class Under Strain
Site : http://louis.chauvel.free.fr
chauvel@sciences-po.fr
1
European constitutional
treaty referendum
29 may 2005
Change
66
67
Self employed
49
55
47
37
-10
43
30
-13
Tot = 51%
Tot = 46%
Diff = 23%
53
46
Diff = 37%
4
-9
Source : My own computation of CEVIPOF 1995 microdata and CSA postelectoral survey 2005.
2
Plan
Europe as a middle-class exception in the world
Objective degree of inequality and class consciousness:
paradoxical dynamics
The middle class dynamics and welfare state retrenchments
Conclusion: post-affluent societies and the middle class(es)
60
Lesotho
Bolivia
Inequality
(Gini coeff)
Honduras
55
Nicaragua
(World
Income
Inequality50
Database)
Brazil
Paraguay
Panama
Ecuador Colombia
Guatemala
El Salvador
Chile
Data 2000
Latin America
Gambia
45
Philippines
Mexico
Peru
Costa Rica
Georgia
y = -5,6712Ln(x) + 88,851
Dom.Rep.
Venezuela
R2 = 0,3085
Thailand
Ghana Cote d`Ivoire
Jamaica
Malaysia
Cameroon
Guyana
Iran
Cambodia
Sri Lanka
Moldova
Russia
Kyrgyz R.
Tunisia
China
Tajikistan
Turkey
Morocco
Mauritania
Estonia Korea R.
Egypt
U.S.
Portugal
India
Israel
Ukraine
Lithuania
SpainU.K.
Bulgaria
Azerbaijan
Italy
Latvia
Greece
Japan
Macedonia Croatia
Bangladesh Indonesia
Ireland
Kazakhstan
Australia
Taiwan
Canada
Switzerland
Hungary
Pakistan
Poland
France
Romania
Belgium
Germany
Belarus
Austria
Luxembourg
Czech R.
Sweden Netherlands
Denmark
Slovenia
Norway
Slovak Rep.
Liberal and
Mediterranean countr.
40
35
Corporatist countr.
30
Nordic countries
25
Finland
(Penn World
Tables Database)
100000
The strobiloid
Income
100
median income
50
Lower income class = poor
6
Brazil :
Median
disposable
income per
year per capita
: 6.900
$PPP/an
Gini coef.:
25.2 %
Gini coef.:
34.5 %
Gini coef.:
59.8 %
Median class =
84 %
Median class =
58 %
Median class =
44 %
Sweden :
Median
disposable
income per year
per capita :
23.000 $PPP/an
Median
national income
US :
Median disposable
income per year
per capita : 32.000
$PPP/an
Brazil :
Median
disposable income
per year per
capita : 6.900
$PPP/an
Gini coef.:
25.2 %
Gini coef.:
34.5 %
Gini coef.:
59.8 %
Median class =
84 %
Median class =
58 %
Median class =
44 %
Sweden :
Median disposable
income per year per
capita : 23.000
$PPP/an
60
Lesotho
Bolivia
Inequality
(Gini coeff)
Honduras
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
Nicaragua
Gambia
Brazil
Paraguay
Panama
Ecuador Colombia
Guatemala
El Salvador
Chile
Data 2000
Philippines
Mexico
Peru
Costa Rica
Georgia
y = -5,6712Ln(x) + 88,851
Dom.Rep.
Venezuela
R2 = 0,3085
Thailand
Ghana Cote d`Ivoire
Jamaica
Malaysia
Cameroon
Guyana
Iran
Cambodia
Sri Lanka
Moldova
Russia
Kyrgyz R.
Tunisia
China
Tajikistan
Turkey
Morocco
Mauritania
Estonia Korea R.
Egypt
U.S.
Portugal
India
Israel
Ukraine
Lithuania
SpainU.K.
Bulgaria
Azerbaijan
Italy
Latvia
Greece
Japan
Macedonia Croatia
Bangladesh Indonesia
Ireland
Kazakhstan
Australia
Taiwan
Canada
Switzerland
Hungary
Pakistan
Poland
France
Romania
Belgium
Germany
Belarus
Austria
Luxembourg
Czech R.
Sweden Netherlands
Denmark
Slovenia
Norway
Slovak Rep.
Finland
20
1000
100000
45
Malaysia
Inequality
(Gini coeff)
y = -16,122x + 101,38
R2 = 0,3387
Russia
Data 2000
Tunisia
Turkey
40
Korea R
Portugal
35
Israel
Spain
Greece
30
Taiwan
Hungary
Poland
U.S.
U.K.
Italy
Ireland
Japan
Australia
Canada
France
Switzerland.
Belgium
Germany
Czech R. Sweden Austria
Norway
Slovenia
Denmark
Slovak Rep.
Finland Netherlands
Romania
25
Development
log10(per capita GDP PPP)
20
10
3,6
3,7
3,8
3,9
4,1
4,2
4,3
4,4
4,5
4,6
45
Costa Rica
Inequality
(Gini coeff)
Mexico
Malaysia
Russia
Tunisia
Venezuela
Tunisia
Turkey
40
Korea, Republic of
Greece
Korea, Republic of
Portugal
U.S.
Portugal
35
Greece
Ireland
Spain
Israel
Hungary
Poland
30
Hungary
Romania
Poland
Taiwan Russia
25
Israel
Spain
U.K.
Italy
Ireland
Japan
Canada
Australia
Switzerland.
Italy
Canada
U.S.
Taiwan
France
France
Australia
Switzerland.
Belgium
Japan
U.K.
Germany
Austria
Czech R.Netherlands
Denmark Sweden Norway
Slovenia
Netherlands
Germany
Slovak Rep.
FinlandDenmark
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Austria
Belgium
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Czech R.
Development
log10(per capita GDP PPP)
20
11
3,6
3,7
3,8
3,9
4,1
4,2
4,3
4,4
4,5
4,6
45
Costa Rica
Inequality
(Gini coeff)
Mexico
Malaysia
Russia
Tunisia
Venezuela
Tunisia
Turkey
40
Korea R
Greece
Korea R
Portugal
U.S.
Portugal
35
Greece
Ireland
Spain
Israel
Hungary
Poland
30
Hungary
Romania
Poland
Taiwan Russia
25
Israel
Spain
U.K.
Italy
Ireland
Japan
Canada
Australia
Switzerland.
Italy
Canada
U.S.
Taiwan
France
France
Australia
Switzerland.
Belgium
Japan
U.K.
Germany
Austria
Czech R.Netherlands
Denmark Sweden Norway
Slovenia
Netherlands
Germany
Slovak Rep.
FinlandDenmark
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Austria
Belgium
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Czech R.
Development
(per capita GDP - PPP)
20
12
3,6
3,7
3,8
3,9
4,1
4,2
4,3
4,4
4,5
4,6
European Gini
(exchange rate)
European
Gini
(PPP)
29%
28%
12
32%
30%
15
31%
30%
25
42%
33%
28
58%
43%
31
59%
43%
13
14
70
60
50
40
30
20
classes sociales
10
0
1810- 1820- 1830- 1840- 1850- 1860- 1870- 1880- 1890- 1900- 1910- 1920- 1930- 1940- 1950- 1960- 1970- 1980- 19901819 1829 1839 1849 1859 1869 1879 1889 1899 1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999
15
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Older Source : Paper publications : Enqute revenus fiscaux ERF ; Newer source : INSEE reevaluation 16
ERF
Strong degree of
subjectivation of
inequalities
Victory of proletariat
Class Society
Weak degree of
subjectivation of
inequalities
Classless society
Alienation
Older Source : Paper publications : Enqute revenus fiscaux ERF ; Newer source : INSEE reevaluation 17
ERF
Subjectivity of class:
consciousness
movments, and class
struggle
Victory of proletariat
Class society
F 1970
F 1950
Decommodification
F 1982
F 1890
F 1830
F 1989
F 2000
classless society
Recommodification
Alienation
Objectivity of class: 18
Intensity of Inequalities
19
Higher
strata Old higher
middle class
Economic
Ressources
Educational
ressources
New lower
middle class
Old lower
middle class
Lower
Strata
20
Post-affluent societies:
the lost paradise
of the new middle class
Educational
ressources
dominant
Professeurs,
professions
scientifiques
Cadres de la IngnieursCadres
Chefs d'entreprises
fonction
pub.
administratifs
Instituteurs ou
de 10 salaris et plus
d'entreprise
assimils
Professions
Professions
Professions
intermdiaires de laintermdiaires
intermdiaires
sant et du travail administratives
administratives de la
social
entreprises
Economic
Commerants
fonction publique Techniciens Employs
Contrematres,
Employs fonc pub,
Employs
entreprises
agents de matrise
Policiers et militaires
agents de service
Artisans
Personnels des
de
Ouvriers qualifis,Ouvriers qualifisservices
directs aux
particuliers
type
industriel
manutention,
Ouvriers qualifis de
magasinage,
Chauffeurs
Ouvriers non qualif
transport
industriel
artisanal
Ressources
dominant
Ouvriers agricoles
Lower
Strata
21
0,2-0,3
0,1-0,2
0-0,1
-0,1-0
-0,2--0,1
-0,3--0,2
-0,4--0,3
-0,
0,1
0,3
0,2
0
4
3
2
1
-0,
0,1
0,3
0,2
0
4
3
2
1
50 to 59 Years old
30 to 39 Years old
22
Available explanations ?
Decline in the return to educational assets (and not to
economic assets) is it really a knowledge society?
State as an employer is more and more a state as a pension
system for former civil servants (strong decline in hiring for
the newer generations)
The fate of generational dynamics: the newer generations
are the children of a gifted generation (first cohorts of the
baby-boom) which was massively new middle-class, but the
newer generations have little room in the new middle-class
23
30
25
14
Age
30
35
40
45
50
12
10
20
15
10
5
their
parents
first cohorts
of the babyboom
Age
30
35
40
45
50
their
children2
Cohorte
Cohorte
0
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
24
4. Conclusion:
Farewell to the new middle class?
What is ever new with new middle class, 1 century later?
A social backlash after affluence?
Which consequences?
Which are the adequate social policies:
feeding the poor (bread and circuses),
or rehomogeneisation of Europe?
Were are sociologists in terms of new/old higher/lower
middle class : are we the next slice of the salami?
25
Semi-plenary session:
Role of the state in reduction/amplification of inequality
THE END
Louis Chauvel
Pr at Sciences-Po University Paris
and Institut Universitaire de France
Site : http://louis.chauvel.free.fr
chauvel@sciences-po.fr
26