world population current

scenario and future trends

World Population
Current Scenario
Population Yesterday
(21 May 2014)

7.2 billion

Yearly Growth

1.10%

Yearly Birth Rate

1.90%

Yearly Death Rate

0.80%

Daily Increase

0.21 million

Increase/second

2.3

World Population
Future Trends

World Population
Future Trends

World Population
Future Trends

Population Pyramid

Age

Population in age class

Factors affecting Growth Rate

Growth rate = Birth Rate - Death Rate
1.1% = 1.9% - 0.8% (as of 2012)
Of these the Birth Rate is the most important
contributor, specifically the Fertility Rate
(#children/woman)

Where people live

Population growth rates

Why Population is so important

Thomas Malthus (1798)
Organism populations increase
exponentially, whereas the
environment is fixed
(actually decreases).
Factually correct, but a complex
problem...
Modern example: high populations
AND high quality of life

UN Millennium Development Goals

UN Millennium Declaration, Sept. 2000
Adopted by 189 countries
By 2015:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Eradicate extreme poverty & hunger

Universal primary education
Gender equality, empower women
Reduce child mortality
Improve maternal health
Combat HIV/AIDS and other diseases
Environmental sustainability
Global partnership for development

Whats Behind Population Growth

Three Factors
Fertility
Infant Mortality
Longevity

Animal Domestication
and Agriculture
Provided for a few to
feed many

Industrial Revolution
Growth of Cities and
Infrastructure
Water
Energy
Transportation

Increased
Productivity
Nutrition
Sanitation
Medicine

Initiatives to control population

in Pakistan

Resource Limits - Land (7)

Deforesting to
acquire more
arable land
Would run out in
next century at
current yields
Probably need to
double yields

Resource Limits - Water (8)

In 1950 people
used half of
accessible water
Are now dependent
on dams
Pollution loses 33%
of potential water
Getting close to
limits

Energy Consumption (9)

Energy growth
very high last
fifty years
Mostly
hydrocarbon
fuels
Nonrenewable
resource
consumption
and climate
change issues

Fossil Fuel Reserves (9)

Lots of coal - but heavy CO2 contributor

Look for alternative forms of energy to
emerge

Biodiversity is in Danger (13)

Humanity has spawned a species
extinction to rival the 5 great extinctions
of 65 - 440 million years ago
Recovery times from the great
extinctions took 10s of millions of years
Biodiversity is essential to life on Earth
and holds untold treasures for the future
An ecological ethic is emerging

Global Warming - A Good Example

Atmospheric CO2 is increasing, and creates
greenhouse effect.(14)
3-5C rise predicted by computer models
for this century would have major
environmental impact. (15)
Observed change of 0.25-0.4surface and
0.0-0.2C troposphere rise in last 20 years
doesnt agree with models and may or may 0.6C rise in last 100
not be due to CO2.(16)
years
Humans - 6 billion tons/year of CO2 (up
500% from 1950, and increasing) (17)
Other sources 200B tons/year
Total atmosphere load - 775B tons
Total earth load with oceans - 42,000B tons

interesting
http://www.worldometers.info/worldpopulation/

Summary
Major increases are occurring in human
population and affluence.
Major stresses result in our society, natural
environment, and ecology.
Technology and engineering are central to
the creation and the mitigation of problems.
Predicting the future is difficult (17). The next
twenty five to fifty years will be decisive.