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Introduction To IMS555
Introduction To IMS555
Introduction To IMS555
Course Description
This course is intended to cover two
distinct disciplines of decision theory (DT)
and expert systems (ES). In the first part,
some non-technical overviews on decision
theory are discussed. In the remaining part,
expert system concepts, issues and
technologies are conversed. By combining
these two disciplines, students would be
able to apply concept of expert systems as
mechanism for decision support.
Course Outcome
At the end of the course, students
should be able to:
i.
Course Content
First 8 weeks: Discuss on decision
theory
Another 6 weeks: Discuss on expert
system
Assessment
Attendance/ Exercises:
10%
Assignment 1 (Decision Theory) :
15%
Assignment 2 (Group) (Expert System):
15%
Midterm Test:
20%
Final Test:
40%
Reference/Text Books
Peterson, M. (2019). An Introduction to
Decision Theory, Cambridge University
Press. Cambridge.
Resnik, M. D. (1987). Choices: An
Introduction to Decision Theory.
University of Minnesota Press.
Minneapolis, London.
Jackson, P. (1999). Introduction to
Expert Systema. 3rd Ed. Addison-Wesley.
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12
Discussion
i. Classify the following as individual
or group decisions.
a. Two people decide to marry each
other.
b. The members of a club decide that the
annual dues will be RM5.
c. The members of a club decide to pay
their dues.
d. Two gas stations decide to start a price
war.
e. The citizens of the Malaysian decide to
Old Period
Began in ancient Greece
The Greeks did not develop a theory
of rational decision making
The Greeks were not familiar with the
concept of probability
No formulated any precise decision
rules
They practise about what to do and
not to do
Pioneering Period
Began in 1654
Used mathematical solution to the problem
This led to the creation of modern
probability theory
Port-Royal Logic were introduced:
formulation of the principle of maximising
expected value
Decision theory rule that the alternative with
largest expected value (EV) should be chosen
Axiomatic Period
Lead to modern decision theory
Truth and probability concept (Frank
Ramsey, 1926)
Proposed a set of eight axioms for how rational
decision makers have to choose among uncertain
prospects
Decision Model
Three Models:
Condorcet / Traditional
Modern sequential models
Non-sequential models
22
1. Condorcet Model(Condorcet,
1793)
He divided the decision process into 3 stages:
Principles
Discusses the principle that will serve as basic for decision in general
issue.
Examine the various aspects of this issue & the consequences of
different ways to make the decision.
The opinions are personal, no attempts are made to form a majority.
Clarification
Clarify the question & issue.
Combine with others to a small number of more general opinions.
Decision is reduced to a choice between a manageable set
alternatives.
Actual choice
Actual choice between these alternatives
2. Modern Sequential
Models
Three models have been introduced:
Problem-solving orientation
Herbert & Simon model
Brim et al model
ii. Design
iii. Choice
3. Non-sequential Models
1. Mintzberg Model. Used the same three major phases
as Herbert & Simon model:
i.
Identification phase
a) Decision recognition problems & opportunities are identified
b) Diagnosis - the tapping of existing information channels and the
opening of new ones to clarify and define the issues
3. Non-sequential Models
1.
Explanation of Diagram 1
The relation between these phases and routines is
circular rather than linear.
The decision maker "may cycle within identification to
recognize the issue during design,
he may cycle through a maze of nested design and
search activities to develop a solution during evaluation,
he may cycle between development and investigation
to understand the problem he is solving,
he may cycle between selection and development to
reconcile goals with alternatives, ends with means".
Typically, if no solution is found to be acceptable, he will
cycle back to the development phase.
Diagram 2: Models
Comparison
Class exercises
Consider the following two examples of
decision processes:
The family needs a new kitchen table, and decides
which to buy.
The country needs a new national pension system,
and decides which to introduce.