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Lecture8-Forecasting Earthquakes
Lecture8-Forecasting Earthquakes
Lecture8-Forecasting Earthquakes
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FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES
Seismic gap
Asegmentofanactiveplateboundarythat,relativetorestoftheboundary,
hasnotrecentlyrupturedandisconsideredtobemorelikelytoproducean
earthquakeinthefutureiscalledaseismicgap.
Theseismicgaptheorystatesthatasegmentofaplateboundarythathasnot
rupturedrecentlyhasthegreatestchanceofrupturinginthefuturerelativeto
othersegmentsthathaveexperiencedlargeearthquakes.Thisisbasedonthe
recognitionthattectonicplatesmoverelativetooneanotheratan
approximatelyconstantspeedandtheassumptionthattheslipofplate
boundaryfaultsoccursprimarilyduringmajorearthquakes.
Someearthquakeforecastingmodelsuseseismicgapforpredictions.
Prediction of Earthquakes
Earthquake prediction is a prediction that an
earthquake of a specific magnitude will occur in a
particular place at a particular time range. Despite
considerable research efforts by seismologists,
scientifically reproducible predictions cannot yet be
made to a specific day or month.
Most useful way of predicting a future earthquake is in
terms of probabilities. For well-understood faults
seismic hazard assessment maps can estimate the
probability that an earthquake of a given size will
affect a given location over a certain number of
years.
Experts do advise general earthquake preparedness,
especially in areas known to experience frequent 5or
Prediction of Earthquakes
First Seismograph
The first seismograph called Di-Dong-Di was
invented by Cheng Heng (132 A.D.) of China.
Source: wikipedia
First Seismograph
The ancient Chinese seismograph consist
of a special vase that had eight sculpted
dragons mounted around the vase in eight
primary directions. Each dragon held in its
mouth a metal ball. When the ground
shook, some of the balls would fall from
the mouths of the dragons into the waiting
mouths of the sculpted frogs to show how
the ground had moved.
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Earlier Seismographs
Vertic
al
Horizon
tal
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Earlier Seismographs
Source: wikipedia
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Principle of Seismographs
Seismographs are designed so that slight earth vibrations move
the instrument. The suspended mass remains at rest as the
spring absorbs some of the motion. The stylus (pen) affixed to the
mass, records the relative motion between itself and the rest of
the instrument, thus recording the ground motion.
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Modern Seismometer
Source: wikipedia
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Seismogram
References
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/scienceenvironment17487482(Article:Could
GPSbeusedtopredictearthquakes?)
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/pressrelease.html(Officialpress
releaseofParkfieldearthquakeprediction)
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/animalssenseearthquakes14375060
(Videoofanimalssensingearthquakesearly)
Rikitake,T.(1966).Afiveyearplanforearthquakepredictionresearchin
Japan.Tectonophysics3:115
Tsunogai,U.&Wakita,H.(1995).Precursorychemicalchangesinground
water:Kobeearthquake,Japan.Science,269(5220):6163
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