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Pertmaster Training
Pertmaster Training
Pertmaster Training
Pertmaster
Day 1
Learning Activity:
Introduction to Project Risk Management
Pertmaster software
Schedule and Cost risk analysis software
Suretrak, P3,
Primavera Enterprise
For
Primavera users
MS Project users
OpenPlan users
MSP 98,2000,2002,
2002/3 Server
Pertmaster
Project Risk
Pertmaster
Risk Expert
Risk Register
Run only
Extend functionality
Interfaces
Reports
Macros,
e.g. conditional branching
Overview of Pertmaster
CPM vs. Schedule Risk Analysis
Further results
--/--/--
--/--/-8d
10d
15d
Single-Path Schedule
CPM schedule finishes on December 10,
relies on combinations of durations that equal 70 days
Key facts
Accuracy of results improves with more
iterations
Convergence statistic is only at mean
More extreme statistics require more
iterations to converge
Iterations can be more random by
choosing a random seed
Risk Analysis Options | More, then clear Set Own Seed
option
50%
Therefore:
With skewed distributions the chance of
hitting a schedule end date will be less
than 50%
More risky
+
Parallel Paths
=
Typically less than 20%
chance of hitting completion
date
8d
10d
15d
Schedule types
2. Aggressive schedule
9d
8d
10d
15d
Activities have durations that are less than their most likely durations
The risk analysis will tell us about the chance (if any!) of hitting the
aggressive schedule date
Any advantages or disadvantages to working to an aggressive schedule?
3. Cautious schedule
12d
8d
10d
15d
Parkinsons Law
12d
10d
15d
Produces a report in
MS Word
Can be summary or full report
Content can be customised
Can be badged
Schedule checker
Checks schedule quality
Constraints
Open-ended tasks
Start to Finish links
Negative lags
Positive lags
Long lags
Broken logic
Calendars on lags
Link on summary tasks (MS Project)
Quick Risk
We want to get a feel for the chance of
completing the New Store project on
time
Quick Risk can be used to assign 3 point
estimates based on the deterministic
activity duration
(1 of 1)
Exercise (Optional)
Divide into groups.
Take responsibility for some of the tasks in the
project.
In your group discuss and enter more realistic
maximum, minimum and most likely durations
for the tasks your group is responsible for.
Make a note of any assumptions to justify your
estimates.
P-Schedules
Pertmaster calculates the percentile date
(e.g. P50, P80, P90) for each activity in
the schedule
Selected percentile dates can be
assigned to each activity and then
displayed on the barchart
P80 Bar
Deterministic Bar
P50 Bar
Summary P-Schedules
Chosen percentiles can be calculated for
each activity in a schedule
The P-Schedule dates are often used as
a risked baseline
The P50 to P90 range are typical
p-schedules used. E.g. Setting client
expectations
The p-schedules can be plotted on the
barchart as bars or markers
Mitigating risk
If the contract has already been signed,
we need to improve chances of meeting
the contracted date (currently 6%)
The tornado helps us:
Risk | Tornado Graph View
Mitigating risk
As Locate Premises is the biggest driver to the project
duration, this is the best place to mitigate the risk
We can reduce its worst case by obtaining a guarantee
from the agency
Change Maximum Duration from 23 to 18
Mitigating risk
Re-run the risk analysis
Chance of meeting deterministic finish has improved
from 6% to 9%
The tornado shows a new top driver
Duration Sensitivity
What makes an activity have a high duration
sensitivity?
On the critical path
Long duration
Relatively large uncertainty on duration
(1 of 1)
Warnings
Progress issues (actuals in the future, or no actuals in the past)
Links to other projects
Planning units
Project in P3 database
P3 v3.1
Can feed back analysis results
Warnings
Links to other projects
Planning units
View in Primavera
Import
Navigate to C:\Program Files\Pertmaster Software\Pertmaster78x\Others
Choose layout file: Risk Output - User Dates.plf
Estimate Uncertainty
We cannot give an exact duration for an activity. Unpredictable
things can happen that increase or reduce an activity duration
Risk Events
There maybe events that have a probability of occurrence and
when they do occur they have an impact on the schedule
(1 of 1)
Risk Register
The risk register
Project schedule
(e.g. Primavera, MSP)
Project Prism
Entire Plan : Finish Date
100% 26/Dec/05
95% 07/Nov/05
230
90% 20/Oct/05
85% 14/Oct/05
80% 07/Oct/05
70% 29/Sep/05
65% 23/Sep/05
60% 21/Sep/05
138
Hits
55% 19/Sep/05
50% 14/Sep/05
45% 12/Sep/05
40% 07/Sep/05
92
35% 05/Sep/05
Cumulative Frequency
75% 04/Oct/05
184
30% 01/Sep/05
25% 30/Aug/05
20% 23/Aug/05
46
15% 23/Aug/05
10% 23/Aug/05
5%
23/Aug/05
0
23/Aug/05
17/Sep/05
12/Oct/05
06/Nov/05
01/Dec/05
26/Dec/05
Risk Scoring
Edit | Risk Scoring
Create suitable: PID, wording, ranges and scoring
Importing risks
Copy and Paste
Risk data can be quickly copied and pasted to and from the
risk register grid.
From Excel
Risk data can be stored in Excel and imported into the risk
register.
Pertmaster format export a template from Pertmaster
(File | Export Risk Register, choose XLS file type)
Use template to put risks into template format
Import into Pertmaster Risk Register (File | Import Risk
Register, choose XLS file type)
Other
Import from ARM, Sharepoint, Deltek and create custom
imports
Cost Risk
Costs can be assigned to individual
activities and WBS items in a project
A cost assignment can be dependent or
independent of an activitys duration:
Dependent Engineer
Independent Material
Cost uncertainty
So far the cost variation in our analysis is
due to the uncertainty of the task durations.
Task costs / resources can also be assigned
distributions...
Assign distribution
Day 1 Summary
Distributions skewed towards minimum mean chance of hitting
finish is less than 50%
Parallel paths give rise to less chance of completing project on
time
Schedule types: Most likely, Aggressive, Cautious and Scale to Fit.
Key is to assess risk and uncertainty, to give realistic picture
Projects and programmes can be seamlessly imported form
another project tool or built from scratch
Check schedule, quick risk, refine estimates, run analysis
The Risk Register stores additional risk events that impact the
project
Criticality Index identifies tasks likely to be on critical path due to
uncertainty and risks in schedule.
Duration Sensitivity identifies tasks that influence the project
completion
P-schedules can give well-informed schedules to a chosen
degree of risk, and can be fed back to the original project tool
Cost and resource uncertainty can be added to activities
Correlation
Exercise: Measuring and
defining correlation
Measuring correlation
Defining correlation
Other ways to define
correlation
Probabilistic events
and branching
Exercise: Modeling
probabilistic branching
Re-cap of task existence
Modeling probabilistic
branching
Conditional branching
Exercises: Building macros
Conditional branching macro
Management Costs
Exercise: Modeling
Management costs
Management costs
Penalties
Simulation Details
Exercises: Exploring
convergence, seeds and
simulation methods
Number of iterations
Using a seed
Latin Hypercube simulation
deterministic
Rationale
Min
Likely
Max
High uncertainty
75%
100%
200%
Medium uncertainty
80%
100%
150%
Low uncertainty
90%
100%
120%
Rationale
Min
Likely
Max
A020 Preliminaries
75%
100%
200%
A060 - Design
We have some
knowledge
85%
100%
150%
A140 - Fabrication
90%
110%
130%
A180 - Testing
75%
100%
150%
By
By
By
By
qualitative uncertainty:
discipline:
WBS
when the task happens
Correlation
Correlation
Measure correlation
Sensitivity analysis
Measure cost / time correlation
To measure correlation:
Risk | Scatter Plot
Then Format | Scatter Plot to choose what to measure
Define correlation
Define correlation
Link two uncertain elements in the model
Reflect common causes without needing too much detail
Take account of Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
Example:
Time to train new staff is related to time to install
computer systems
To define correlation:
Risk | Correlation
Choose the first uncertain element
Choose Correlation
Choose the second uncertain element, and Add
Choose amount of correlation, and OK
Risk | Correlations
Choose A110, and Set Correlation
Choose A160, and Add
Set the strength to 90%
Define correlation
Other ways to define correlation
Correlate groups of variables together
Show correlations in a column
Estimate Uncertainty
We cannot give an exact duration for an activity. Unpredictable
things can happen that increase or reduce an activity duration
Risk Events
There maybe events that have a probability of occurrence and
when they do occur they have an impact on the schedule
Probabilistic branching
Can express chance of whole groups of tasks
being necessary
Select configuration
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Design frame
Design rocket engine
Design fuel system
Option 2 successors:
Option 3 successors:
Conditional branching
Conditional Branching
Modelling specific project conditions and
consequences
The logic is often simple, but cannot be
expressed using normal project planning
logic
Examples:
If the cost of a task exceeds $10k, an approval delay is
incurred
If configuration selection slips into April, we cannot buy
off-the-shelf
Option 1
Option 2
1st April
Option 3
Design frame
Design rocket engine
Design fuel system
Pertmaster Ltd 2006
Option 3s name
Note: In your plan this may be different
Close the Visual Basic editor. The code will be saved when
you save the Pertmaster plan.
In Pertmaster run risk analysis and step through some
iterations. Check conditional branch is operating as
expected.
Note: The probabilistic branch will still operate when the
conditional branch is not selected.
Macro uses
Conditional branching
Modelling specific project conditions and consequences
Enhancing Pertmaster
Risk Register
Pertmasters risk register is built for:
Efficient quantitative risk analysis that includes specific risk
events
But also:
Qualitative risk assessment
Categorising and organizing risks
Managing risks by ownership
Entering proposed mitigation actions
Tracking risks and mitigation actions
Pre- and post-mitigation cost and schedule benefit analysis
Customizable reporting
Risk Register
Open ExampleRegister-Rocket sample
Think of three risks that could affect it
Add them to the risk register
Risk | Register
Risk Register
Can change the next risk ID
Tools | Edit Next Risk ID
Probability
Schedule impact
Cost impact
Performance impact
Where we
could be
Where we
are now
Optional:
Show the effect of the specific mitigation of your
risk
Colours
Advanced cost options
Default distribution
shapes
Upper limit of VH
impacts
Management costs
Management Costs
There may be activities whose duration is
dependent on the duration of other activities in
the schedule:
Project management
Site supervision
Site security
Equipment hire
(1 of 2)
(2 of 2)
Penalties
There are penalties payable if the new store is
not open within a specified time of signing the
lease
The amount of time we are likely to have to
pay penalties can be modeled with a hammock
During the risk analysis the hammock can
stretch to record the number of days late the
project is:
Penalties
The impact of penalties can be modeled.
E.g. costs associated with exceeding
agreed contract dates in a project
Random numbers
A monte-carlo analysis requires a supply of
random numbers to pick the values from the
input distributions for each iteration
Computers create random numbers using a
Random Number Generator
SEED
RNG
0 to 1
Latin Hypercube
What is Latin Hypercube? It sounds
complicated
Latin Hypercube is a technique that
allows the results of a risk analysis to
converge in less iterations
It was invented when computing time
was expensive and an analysis took
hours rather than seconds
Now it is the default option for an
analysis. If the option is not checked the
then Monte Carlo sampling is used.
Pertmaster Ltd 2006