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Lecture 2 NH & DM
Lecture 2 NH & DM
Disaster Management
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E. J. Peters
Hazard
Hazard: A potentially damaging physical
event, phenomenon or human activity,
which may cause the loss of life or injury,
property damage, social and economic
disruption or environmental degradation.
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E. J. Peters
Hazards
Hazards can include latent conditions that may represent
future threats. They can be natural in origin (geological,
hydro-meteorological and biological) and/or induced by
human processes (environmental degradation and
technological hazards). Hazards can be single,
sequential or combined in their origin and effects. Each
hazard is characterized by its location, intensity and
probability.
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E. J. Peters
Natural Hazard
E. J. Peters
Natural disaster
A natural disaster is the consequence of
the combination of a natural hazard (a
physical event e.g. volcanic eruption,
earthquake, landslide) and human
activities.
Associated with great
losses and suffering
Human
Economic
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Natural disaster
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Catastrophe
An event resulting in great loss and misfortune
ISO defines a catastrophe as an event that
causes $25 million or more in insured property
losses and affects a significant number of
property/casualty policyholders and insurers.
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E. J. Peters
Read:
An Increasing Vulnerability to Natural
Disasters
By Kofi A. Annan
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E. J. Peters
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E. J. Peters
May 7, 1902:
Volcanic eruption buries Caribbean city
On this day in 1902, Martinique's Mount Pele begins the deadliest volcanic eruption of the 20th century. The
following day, the city of Saint Pierre, which some called the Paris of the Caribbean, was virtually wiped off the
map.
Mount Pele, the name meaning bald in French, was a 4,500-foot mountain on the north side of the Caribbean
island of Martinique. On April 2, 1902, new steam vents were spotted on the peak, which overlooked the port city
of Saint Pierre. Three weeks later, tremors were felt on the island and Mount Pele belched up a cloud of ash.
Caught up in the midst of an important election, residents of Saint Pierre failed to heed the mountain's warnings
and evacuate. The nearby residents mistakenly believed that the only danger from the volcano was lava flow and
that if lava started to flow, they would have plenty of time to flee to safety. In fact, some people came from outside
the city to view the action, even after ash from the eruption began to block roads.
On May 7, activity on the volcano increased dramatically and the blasts grew significantly stronger. Overnight,
there were several strong tremors and a cloud of gas with a temperature of more than 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit
spilled out of the mountain. Finally, a tremendous blast in the early morning hours sent an avalanche of boiling
ash down the side of the mountain.
The city of Saint Pierre was buried within minutes and virtually everyone died instantly. There were only two
reported survivors--one was a prisoner held in an underground cell. Legend has it that he went on to be a circus
attraction. In addition, 15 ships in the harbor were capsized by the eruption. One ship managed to stay afloat with
half the crew surviving, although most suffered serious burns.
Vulcanologists are still unsure about exactly what causes volcanic eruptions and how they can be predicted.
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Reading
https://suite101.com/a/1902-eruption-ofmt-pelee-west-indies-a74962
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Montserrat volcano
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Montserrat
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Impacts
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Impacts
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Photograph by
Richard Fiske, April
22, 1979
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St VincentSuofriere
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1979 Eruption
St Vincent
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2005 Sulphurous
Odours
In February 2005
sulphurous odours and
haze was reported on the
island of St. Vincent and
as far as the Grenadines
50-75 km south. This
resulted from changes in
wind patterns rather than
increased gas output
E. J. Peters
1718.
1640 50, 1550 50, 1480 150, 1395 75,
1325 75, 905 AD 75, 530 BC 75, 750 BC
100, 1600 BC 75, 2020 BC 75, 2135 BC 50,
2200 BC 150, 2310 BC 100, 2380 BC 100.
http://www.volcanolive.com/stvincent.html
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E. J. Peters
Earthquakes -Jamaica
http://jamaicagleaner.com/page
s/history/story001.
html
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Impacts to humans
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Impact -tourism
Source:http://www.bing.com/images/search?
q=jamaica+earthquake+1692&qpvt=jamaica+earthquake+1692&FORM=IGRE#vi
ew=detail&id=6C9397FB5AF7331961C9A1D3778C8204B958405F&selectedInde
x=31
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Earthquake impacts
suffering
Damage to infrastructure/buildings
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E. J. Peters 2014
31
2013 Xmas
storm SVG
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St Vincent 2013
E. J. Peters 2014
33
Impacts Xmas St
Vincent 2013
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Risks indicies
In order to improve understanding of the
relationship between development
and disaster risk at the global level, UNDP
has begun development of a
Disaster Risk Index (DRI).
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Risk
The chance that harm will actually occur
a hazard exists where an object (or substance)
or situation has a built-in ability to cause an
adverse effect. Risk, on the other hand, is
the chance that such effects will occur: the
risk can be high or negligible
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Quantifying risks
LIKELIHOOD is expressed as either a frequency or a probability.
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Risk
Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability
Capacity
Risk: The probability of harmful consequences,
or expected loss (of lives, people injured,
property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted
or environment damaged) resulting from
interactions between natural or human induced
hazards and vulnerable/capable conditions.
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Hazard analysis
Specific risk
Acceptable risk
Risk assessment /analysis
Risk reduction
Risk management
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Analysis /Assessment
HAZARD ANALYSIS is the identification of
material properties, system elements or
events that lead to harm or loss. The term
hazard analysis may also include
evaluation of consequences from an event
or incident.
RISK ANALYSIS is the study of risk in
order to understand and quantify risk so it
can be managed.
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Assignment:
1. Find and the paper by Kofi Anan
2. Look for the main components in
computing DRI
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