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Probability Theory: Counting in Terms of Proportions: Anupam Gupta
Probability Theory: Counting in Terms of Proportions: Anupam Gupta
CS 15-251
Spring 2004
Probability Theory:
Counting in Terms of Proportions
A Probability Distribution
Proportion
of MALES
HEIGHT
X
X+1
X-1
X
X-2
X-1
X-3
X-2
X-4
1
5
6
X+1
X
10
15
X+2
X+3
1
10
20
X+4
X+2
15
1
X+1
X-1
X
X-2
X-1
X-3
X-2
X-4
1
5
6
X+1
X
10
15
X+2
X+3
1
10
20
X+4
X+2
15
1
1
1
X
X-2
X-1
X-3
X-2
X-4
1
5
6
X+1
X
10
15
X+2
X+3
1
10
20
X+4
X+2
15
1
1
1
2
1
X-1
X-3
X-2
X-4
1
5
6
X+1
X
10
15
1
X+3
1
10
20
X+4
X+2
15
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
X-2
X-4
1
5
6
3
X
10
15
1
1
1
10
20
X+4
X+2
15
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
1
5
6
3
6
10
15
1
1
1
10
20
4
15
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
1
1
3
6
10
1
1
4
10
5n
Standard
Deviation
Mean
# of X with property Y
# of X
1-p
1-p
1-p
p
1-p
1
p
4
1-p
p
1-p
1
p
4
pn = q n
pn = 1/3 pn-1
and p0 = .
Final count = + 3n
Some puzzles
Another view
W
L
L
5
6
10
15
10
20
4
5
6
15
5
6
3 choices of bag
2 ways to order bag contents
6 equally likely paths.
X X
Language Of Probability
The formal language of
probability is a very
important tool in
describing and
analyzing probability
distributions.
Sample space
A (finite) probability distribution D is a
finite set S of elements, where each
element x2S has a positive real weight,
proportion, or probability p(x).
Sample space
Probability
A (finite) probability distribution D is a finite
set S of elements, where each element x2S
has a positive real weight, proportion, or
probability p(x).
S
x
weight or probability
of x
Probability Distribution
A (finite) probability distribution D is a
finite set S of elements, where each
element x2S has a positive real weight,
proportion, or probability p(x).
0.1
0.17
0.11
0.2
0.13
0.1
0.13
0.06
Events
A (finite) probability distribution D is a
finite set S of elements, where each
element x2S has a positive real weight,
proportion, or probability p(x).
Any set E S is called an event.
The probability of event E is
Events
A (finite) probability distribution D is a
finite set S of elements, where each
element x2S has a positive real weight,
proportion, or probability p(x).
S
Event E
Events
A (finite) probability distribution D is a finite
set S of elements, where each element x2S
has a positive real weight, proportion, or
probability p(x).
0.17
0
PrD[E] = 0.4
0.13
0.1
Uniform Distribution
A (finite) probability distribution D has
a finite sample space S, with elements
x2S having probability p(x).
If each element has equal probability,
the distribution is said to be uniform.
Uniform Distribution
A (finite) probability distribution D has
a finite sample space S, with elements
x2S having probability p(x).
1/9
1/9
1/9
1/9
1/9
1/9
1/9
1/9
1/9
Uniform Distribution
A (finite) probability distribution D has
a finite sample space S, with elements
x2S having probability p(x).
S
PrD[E] = |E|/|S|
= 4/9
A fair coin is
tossed 100 times
in a row.
S = all sequences
of 100 tosses
x
x = HHTTTTH
p(x) = 1/|S|
Uniform
distribution!
A fair coin is
tossed 100 times
in a row.
50
Probability of
exactly half
tails?
Answer:
Probability of
exactly half
tails?
Picture
Set of sequences
with 50 Hs and
50 Ts
100
E 50
100
Probability of event E = proportion of E in S
S
2
Same methodology!
Sample space S =
{ (1,1),
(2,1),
(3,1),
(4,1),
(5,1),
(6,1),
(1,2),
(2,2),
(3,2),
(4,2),
(5,2),
(6,2),
(1,3),
(2,3),
(3,3),
(4,3),
(5,3),
(6,3),
(1,4),
(2,4),
(3,4),
(4,4),
(5,4),
(6,4),
(1,5),
(2,5),
(3,5),
(4,5),
(5,5),
(6,5),
(1,6),
(2,6),
(3,6),
(4,6),
(5,6),
(6,6) }
Pr(x) = 1/36
8x2S
And again!
Sample space = { 1, 2, 3, , 366}23
Pretend its always a leap year
x = (17,42,363,1,, 224,177)
count E instead!
E
.51
proportion
of A B
to B
Sample space S =
{ (1,1),
(2,1),
(3,1),
(4,1),
(5,1),
(6,1),
(1,2),
(2,2),
(3,2),
(4,2),
(5,2),
(6,2),
(1,3),
(2,3),
(3,3),
(4,3),
(5,3),
(6,3),
(1,4),
(2,4),
(3,4),
(4,4),
(5,4),
(6,4),
(1,5),
(2,5),
(3,5),
(4,5),
(5,5),
(6,5),
(1,6),
(2,6),
(3,6),
(4,6),
(5,6),
(6,6) }
event B = {total = 7}
Independence!
A and B are independent events if
Pr[ A | B ] = Pr[ A ]
Pr[ B | A ] = Pr[ B ]
A
Independence!
A1, A2, , Ak are independent events if knowing
if some of them occurred does not change the
probability of any of the others occurring.
Pr[A|X] = Pr[A]
8 A 2 {Ai}
8 X a conjunction of any of the others
(e.g., A2 and A6 and A7)
Staying
we win if we choose
the correct door
Pr[ choosing correct door ]
= 1/3.
Switching
we win if we choose
the incorrect door
Pr[ choosing incorrect door ]
= 2/3.
5
6
10
10