Future Earth

Steve Dutch
University of
Wisconsin-Green
Bay

Why Look Ahead?

Usually picture geologic time by looking
back
New Perspective
Can you picture the U.S. in 1000 years?
Thats an instant in geologic time
Human activities are ephemeral compared
to geologic time

1000 Years

5-7 M=8 quakes on San Andreas

New Madrid and Cascadia quakes
10 Cascades eruptions
Mississippi delta shift
Niagara Falls retreats 900 meters
Hawaii moves 90 meters
Probable damaging meteor impact
One or more supernovas

Humans in 1000 years

Probably many cities and nations will still
be extant

10,000 years

50-70 M=8 quakes on San Andreas

100 Cascades eruptions
10-20 Mississippi delta shifts
Niagara Falls retreats 9 kilometers
Hawaii moves 900 meters
Probable meteor impact with regional
effects
Hudsons Bay and Baltic drained
Dozens of Supernovas
Earth axis tilt 22-1/2 degrees

Future Niagara Falls

Past and
Future
Niagara
Falls

Humans in 10,000 years

In 8,000 years we got from proto-IndoEuropean to English, Latin and Russian
Time enough for new languages to evolve
Will any word in any language still
survive?

100,000 years

San Andreas shifted by 2.5 kilometers

1000 Cascades eruptions
100-200 Mississippi delta shifts
Niagara Falls retreated to Lake Erie
Loihi reaches surface
Numerous meteor impacts with regional
effects probable
Next ice age?
New stars may form

The
Future
Gulf
Coast

Stars
Change
Faster
than the
Earth

Humans in 100,000 years

Time enough to develop our civilization
from Paleolithic technology
Fewer natural resources but
Old human deposits may be better
sources than rocks

1,000,000 years

San Andreas shifted by 25 kilometers

Large new Cascades volcanoes
1000-2000 Mississippi delta shifts
Ten ice ages?
Loihi and Kilauea as large as present
Mauna Loa
Several collapses of Hawaiian shields
Several supervolcano eruptions
Meteor impact with global effects probable

The Future San Andreas

Bright
Stars in
the next
Million
Years

Humans in 1,000,000 years

Human race itself may evolve
If society collapses long enough, different
gene pools may speciate

What Will Endure 1,000,000 years?

Steel corrodes
Titanic and Arizona will be gone in 1000
years.
Most likely to survive: no steel, solid
Highway and canal cuts
Earth fill dams
Open pit mines and mine dumps
Large monuments (Mount Rushmore,
Pyramids)

What Will They See of Us?

Pleistocene mass extinction
Rapid global spread of human artifacts,
reduction of forests, and spread of
domestic animals
Sixth Extinction?
Many endangered organisms would never
show up in fossil record
Caution in comparing present extinctions with
past
Our choice

Long-Term Climatic Trends

Brightening of the Sun

Capturing of CO2 by carbonate rocks?
Moist greenhouse effect
Runaway CO2 Greenhouse Effect
Venus conditions

Planetary Habitable Zones

Primarily in the Liquid Water Zone
Cant be too warm
Water Vapor in upper atmosphere broken
down by solar UV and charged particles
(photodissociation)
Hydrogen escapes to space

Planetary Habitable Zones

The Ultimate Long-Term

Forecast
Slow warming trend for the next billion
years
Increasing humidity
CO2 decrease leads to extinction of
plants?
Boiling and evaporation of the oceans

The Oreo Model of Life History

Micro-organism Earth (0-3 billion years)

Multicellular Earth (3-5 billion years)
Micro-organism Earth (5-6 billion years)
The white creamy middle