Earthquake early warning system

and disaster management concept

for Romania-Bulgaria
Cross-Border area

Dr. eng. Constantin Ionescu

National Institute for Earth Physics

Objectives
Prevention of the natural disasters generated by earthquakes
in cross-border area Romania-Bulgaria, developing the early
warning integrated communication network and capacity
building at local level based on results of research in this field
Assessment of the seismic risk degree and the earthquakes
effects in the Romania Bulgaria cross-border area, based on
the updating of the current database existed in the two
countries specialized institutions and on the geological,
economical and social particularities
To develop and implement an integrated seismic detection
network with IT&C facilities for risk assessment and risk
scenarios
Increase the capacity at local institutions/emergency
intervention units for joint response activities in the case of
disasters based on a efficient preparedness for citizens and
local institutions hospitals, schools, businesses in crossborder area

Vrancea seismicity
Conditions for earthquake warning
system
- High seismic activity
- Small epicenter area: 30 x 70 km2
- Seismic information from long time

Nov. 10, 1940 150km Mw=7.7

March 4, 1977
95km Mw=
Aug. 30, 1986 130km Mw=7.1
Mai 30, 1990 90km Mw=6.9

The 1977, Mw=7.4 Vrancea earthquake,

h=95 km, I=8-9 MSK
High dynamic amplification at long periods, dangerous for high buildings,
that makes Bucharest the most dangerous capital city of Europe. 32 tall
buildings completely collapsed and 1500 people injured in Bucharest.
On the territory of Bulgaria 8470 buildings partially destroyed and ruined.

TIME of Vrancea eathquake

alert

EWS is based on the difference between speed of S and P seismic waves and data
transmission speed. Usually it is a time period ranging from several seconds to a minute.

Vrancea

Traveltime (sec)

60

130km

Bucharest

Max. warning
time: 25 sec

40
40

40
20
H = 100 km

Epicentral distance (km)

H = 150 km

50

100
100

150

200
200

250

300

(After Oncescu et al., 1998)

EWS chain

An informational
flows presentation

Project Area

Romania: Mehedinti, Dolj, Olt, Teleorman, Giurgiu, Calarasi, Constanta;

Bulgaria: Vidin, Vratsa, Montana, Pleven, Veliko Tarnovo, Ruse, Silistra,
Dobrich si Razgrad

Romanian Seismic Network

SELECTED ACTIVE SEISMIC ZONES

Vrancea

Dulovo
Other

Shabla

EXISTING SEISMIC STATIONS IN

CROSS BORDER AREA

PROPOSAL for NEW SEISMIC STATION

in CROSS BORDER AREA
PURPOSE
- cover all active seismic zones
- quick estimate of earthquake
energy

Diagram for Eartquakes EWS

Seismic
Stations

Seismic
Stations

Seismic
Stations

DATA
Detection P-wave

Excedance of trigger value (PGA,ML, I)

EEWS (Vrancea and Bulgaria seismic zones)

Earthquake EWS Products
SiGNAL ALERT

Travel time MAP

Predicted parameters
MMI local, MMI in site

ALERT MAP

EMAIL Notification

Google Map products

Warning time for an exemple of major

earthquake (h=130km) which can
occcur in Vrancea seismogenic zone

Warning time for an exemple of major

earthquake (h=10km) which can occcur
in Shabla seismogenic zone

Earthquake EWS type of messages

Sound - via TETRA, SMS, RDS/TMC, TCP/IP

Text In the next xx seconds following an earthquake with M =
6.5 - via TETRA, SMS, RDS/TMC, TCP/IP

Model of TCP_IP
device
Ip fix
internet, intranet
connection

Model of RDS device

Radio network

SMS

TETRA device

Earthquake EWS type of

Products example
The products will be accesible
until S wave arrive in site.

VII
P and S wave Travel time

Time Alert
Ex. Vrancea eq.
30 seconds before S
Wave arrive in site
Users
ISU, CP, CJ, Infrastr.
Municipatities

VI
V
VI

V-VI
V

V-VI
V

Predicted Alert Map

Google Map parameters

V
V

PRODUCTS for DISASTER

MANAGEMENT
After the eartquake feelt
Parameters of earthquakes
Seismic bbulletin
Shake Map
PAGER, program de estimate and evaluate a disaster
Service de Not
Estimarea pagubelor
Ai simtit cutremurul? Cetatenii raspund la chestionarele
seismice.

Earthquakes parameters, ShakeMap,

Pager,ShakeCAST and Risk analysing
Raw DATA

Broad Band Data

Strong Motion Data

Seismic Bulletin

ShakeMAP

Population exposure
Building damages
analysing

Email Notification

PGA, PGV

WWW Maps

PSA 0,1:0.5: 3

Vulnerability Map

Intensity Map

Google Map 3D

Other Maps

Risk Analysing

Parameters and Products time table for an exemple

of major earthquake (h=130km) which can
occcur in Vrancea seismogenic zone

90 sec

Seismic
Bulletin

IGSU
Aut,
Population

RDS ?, SMS
Tetra, web
Satelitm IP

120 sec

Shake Map

IGSU
Aut,

RDS ?, SMS
Tetra, web
Satellite, IP

150 sec

Damages
estimation

IGSU
Aut,

RDS ?, SMS
Tetra, web
Satellite, IP

TIP of MESAGEs
1. July 8, 2009 at 19:31:21 (GMT) an earthquake occurred in the Vrancea
region of magnitude 6.6 on the Richter scale at a depth of 90 km, I =
VII, 50 km from Focsani, 40 km Vrancioaia, 40 km Odobesti - to use.
TETRA SMS RDS / TMC
2. Acceleration values at different points, the intensity values.

PRODUCTS
ShakeMap map, PGA, PGV maps, Damage estimation, Maps and table
of damages, MMI using questionary, Pictures with damages.

Alertare

TETRA, SMS, TCP/IP

Internet broadcasting
FM - RDS broadcasting
TV, steaming mesage

PGA si PGV pentru cutremurul din Ucraina,

07 Mai 2008, M=5

ShakeMap

ShakeMap for 2009, 25 April earthquake

Bucharest ShakeMap for 2009, 25 April

earthquake

Instrumental intensity evaluation in different zones

Harti PGA si PGV pentru

cutremurul din Ukraine,
07 Mai 2008, M=5.0

Earthquake vulnerability Map

Fig. 1: Exemplu de harta statica obtinuta pentru o simulare a cutremurului din

Fig. 2: Aceeasi harta, in format GIS pt Google Earth

Did You Feelt It?

Information from population using web interface

Questionary
filled by internet
users

FLOW DIAGRAM OF EARTHQUAKE

DISASTER INFORMATION
DANGEROUS
FACILITIES (SWITCH OFF)

EEWS

NIEP
NDC
Earthquake
parameters

LOCAL AUTHORITY
LOCAL GOVERNMENT
CIVIL PROTECTION

PUBLIC
- Alert
- Information

NETWORK CONECTIONS
Communication Technology is recognized as an
essential point in the disaster management for a long
time, and includes:

Governmental communication system TETRA

Internet
Mobile Phones +SMS
Fax
E-Mail
Radio and Television
Satellite
FM-RDS system

Can be effectively used in mitigation, preparedness,

response and recovery.

TYPE and TIME of MESSAGES

Message sound - to the users via communication systems TETRA, SMS, RDS /
TMC (25 seconds before S wave arrival in site)
Message - "In the next 24 seconds following an earthquake with M = 6.5" - to
the users via communication systems TETRA, VPN, Internet, SMS, RDS / TMC
(23 seconds before S wave arrival in site)
Message Example On 8 July 2009 at 19:31:21 (Romania local time) an
earthquake occurred in the Vrancea region with magnitude 6.6 on the Richter
scale, at a depth of 90 km, I = VII, 50 km from Focsani, 40 Km to Vrancioaia, 40
km to Odobesti - to the users via communication systems TETRA,VPN,
Internet, SMS, RDS / TMC (60-120 seconds after S wave arrival in site)
PGA, PGV and Instrumental Intensity values at seismic stations. ShakeMap
map of Romania territory and Bucharest area to the users via communication
systems TETRA,VPN, Internet, SMS, RDS / TMC (120 - 300 seconds after S
wave arrival in site)
Damage estimate. Map and table of damage to the users via communication
systems TETRA,VPN, Internet, SMS, RDS / TMC 120 - 300 seconds after S
wave arrival in site)
Macroseismic information using internet questionnaire (all time)

Informare/Alertare utilizand RDS-FM

THANK YOU!