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Predicting Breach Formation: Mark Morris
Predicting Breach Formation: Mark Morris
Predicting Breach Formation: Mark Morris
Mark Morris
HR Wallingford
The Science of Asset Management
London 9th December 2011
www.floodrisk.o
rg.uk
EPSRC Grant:
EP/FP202511/1
Emergency planning
Flood event management
Emergency repairs
Peak discharge? Flood volume? Rate of flooding?
Time to catastrophic failure? Size of breach?
Formation
Significant erosion of material through embankment body and
down to base
Growth (widening)
Open breach; flow continues to widen the breach
In summary...
Myron has:
1.Reviewed breaching processes and models
2.Chosen to develop simple, physically based equations
needs focus
Breach model review 3 selected for
evaluation (as greatest potential for industry
uptake) = SIMBA / HR BREACH / FIREBIRD
Data review to assist model performance
validation
USDA ARS data / IMPACT project data / 2 dam
failures
( not formal
conclusions)
Zoned embankments
1
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
Effect of Kd versus As
Flat
Hydrograph
Erodible top
layer
Resistant
top
layer
Blame uncertainty
Systems analysis:
Risk models run many thousands of simulations need
simple and / or fast methods of prediction