Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Hydrology Chapter 7
Hydrology Chapter 7
CHAPTER 7:
Hydrological Forecasting
Introduction
Floods
Flood Formula
Floods
Floods
Probability
A measure of how likely an event will
occur
A number expressing the ratio of
favorable outcome to the all possible
outcomes
Probability is usually represented as P(.)
P (getting a club from a deck of playing cards) = 13/52 =
0.25 = 25 %
P (getting a 3 after rolling a dice) = 1/6
10
Random Variable
Random variable: a quantity used to
represent probabilistic uncertainty
Incremental precipitation
Instantaneous streamflow
Wind velocity
Sampling terminology
Sample: a finite set of observations x1, x2,.., xn of
the random variable
A sample comes from a hypothetical infinite
population possessing constant statistical properties
Sample space: set of possible samples that can be
drawn from a population
Event: subset of a sample space
Example
Population: streamflow
Sample space: instantaneous streamflow,
annual maximum streamflow, daily average
streamflow
Sample: 100 observations of annual max.
streamflow
13
Summary statistics
Also called descriptive statistics
If x1, x2, xn is a sample then
Mean,
Variance,
Standard
deviation,
1 n
X xi
n i 1
1 n
S
xi X
n 1 i 1
2
for continuous
data
2
for continuous
data
for continuous
data
Coeff. of
variation,
14
Graphical display
16
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1905
1900
1908 1900
1918
1927
19001938
1948
1900 1958
1968
1900
1978 1900
1988
Year
Year
1998
1900
Histogram
Plots of bars whose height is the number n i, or
fraction (ni/N), of data falling into one of
several intervals of equal width
30
60
100
90
50
25
No. ofoccurences
occurences
No.
No. of
of occurences
80
Interval = 50,000
cfs
Interval
Interval
==
10,000
25,000 cfs
cfs
70
40
20
60
30
15
50
40
20
10
30
1020
5
10
0
00
0
0 50 50 100100 150
150 200
200 250
250
300
300
350 400
400 450
450 500
500
350
3 3 3cfs)
Annual
ax
flow
(10
Annual
ax
flow
Annualmm
m
ax
flow(10
(10cfs)
cfs)
Dividing the number of occurrences with the total number of points will
give Probability Mass Function 18
20
90
0.8
No. of
occurences
Probability
80
0.7
70
0.6
60
0.5
50
0.4
40
0.3
30
0.2
20
0.1
10
00
0
50
100 100
150
200
200 300
250
300 400350
400500450
500
600
3 3 cfs)
Annualmm
flow(10
(10
Annual
axaxflow
cfs)
Cumulative distribution
function
P (Q 50000) = 0.8
Probability
0.8
P (Q 25000) = 0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Extreme events
Floods
Droughts
1
Frequency of occurence
Return Period
X
Random variable:
Threshold level: xT
X if:xT
Extreme event occurs
Time between ocurrences of X x
Recurrence interval:
E ( )
Return Period:
or
1
P ( X xT )
T
28
29
Hydrologic data
series
Complete duration series
All the data available
600
No. of occurrences = 3
500
2 recurrence intervals
in 106 years
400
300
T = 106/2 = 53 years
200
100
0
1905
1918
1927
1938
1948
1958
1968
1978
Year
1988
1998
7 recurrence intervals
T = 106/7 = 15.2 yrs
Probability distributions
Normal family
Normal, lognormal, lognormal-III
32
Normal distribution
Central limit theorem
if X is the sum of n
independent and identically distributed random
variables with finite variance, then with
increasing n the distribution of X becomes normal
regardless of the distribution of random variables
pdf for normal distribution
1
f X ( x)
e
2
1 x
Standard Normal
distribution
A standard normal distribution is a
normal distribution with mean () = 0
and standard deviation () = 1
Normal distribution is transformed to
standard normal distribution by using
the following formula:
z
Lognormal distribution
If the pdf of X is skewed,
its not normally
distributed
If the pdf of Y = log (X) is
normally distributed, then
X is said to be
lognormally
distributed.
( y )2
1
f ( x)
exp
x 2
y
2
y
x 0, and y log x
35
EV type I distribution
If M1, M2, Mn be a set of daily rainfall or streamflow,
and let X = max(Mi) be the maximum for the year. If
Mi are independent and identically distributed, then
for large n, X has an extreme value type I or Gumbel
distribution.
f ( x)
x u
1
x u
exp
exp
6sx
u x 0.5772
k 1
exp
x 0; , k 0
38
Exponential distribution
Poisson process a stochastic
process in which the number of
events occurring in two disjoint
subintervals are independent
random variables.
In hydrology, the interarrival
time (time between stochastic
hydrologic events) is described
by exponential distribution
f ( x ) e
1
x 0;
x
Gamma Distribution
The time taken for a number of
events () in a Poisson process
is described by the gamma
distribution
Gamma distribution a
distribution of sum of
independent and identical
exponentially distributed
random variables.
x 1e x
f ( x)
( )
x 0; gamma function
x ; gamma function
y log x
42
Frequency Analysis
1)Series of events
-The method of statistics to extend
the available data and hence predict
the likely frequency of occurrence of
natural events.
-Another point for emphasis is the
noncyclical nature of random event
Now
Tr
P(X x)n
1
P(X x)
= 1 [1 (1/Tr)]n
1 - P(X x)n
3)Probability Plotting
Tr = n
m
and Hazen's formula [65]
Tr =
2n
2m 1
1) Normal Distribution
-PDF equation for normal distribution is
(d)
Probability plots
Probability plot is a graphical tool to
assess whether or not the data fits a
particular distribution.
The data are fitted against a theoretical
distribution in such as way that the points
should form approximately a straight line
(distribution function is linearized)
Departures from a straight line indicate
departure from the theoretical distribution
64
Steps
1. Rank the data from largest (m = 1) to smallest (m
= n)
2. Assign plotting position to the data
1. Plotting position an estimate of exccedance probability
2. Use p = (m-3/8)/(n + 0.15)
The pink line you see on the plot is xT for T = 2, 5, 10, 25, 50,
100, 500 derived using the frequency factor technique for normal
66
distribution.
The
PDF
equation
distribution is,
F(z) = e
-e-b(z - a)
for
Gumbel
a = x - /b = 0.5772
b = - /( 6)
Therefore, z value
determined as
for
any
Tr(z)
can
be
x u
1
x u
exp
exp
6sx
u x 0.5772
Define a reduced
variable y
x u
F ( x) exp exp
xu
y
F ( x) exp exp( y )
y ln ln F ( x) ln ln(1 p) where p P(x xT )
1
yT ln ln 1
T
If you know T, you can find yT, and once yT is know, xT can
be computed by
xT u yT
72
Example 12.2.1
x 0.649 in
s 0.177 in
6s
6 * 0.177
0.138
T
5
y5 ln ln
ln ln
1.5
T 1
5 1
x5 u y5 0.569 0.138 *1.5 0.78 in
x50 1.11in
73
Frequency Factors
wherex
KT Frequency factor
T Return period
x Sample mean
s Sample standard deviation
fX(x)
x
KT s
x
74
Normal Distribution
Normal distribution
1
f X ( x)
e
2
1 x
xT x
KT
zT
s
1
0.02; K 50 z50 2.054
50
75
x u
F ( x) exp exp
6s
u x 0.5772
xT u yT
T
6
6
s
s ln ln
T
6
x
s
0.5772 ln ln
T 1
x 0.5772
xT x KT s
KT
6
T
0.5772 ln ln
T 1
76
T
yT ln ln
T 1
Example 12.3.2
0.5772 ln ln
T 1
5
6
0
.
5772
ln
ln
0.719
xT x K T s
0.649 0.719 0.177
0.78 in
77
Quiz
Determine Qp for 10, 50, 100 and 200 year using Gumbel E
Probablity of Qp is > 2500 m3/s for the next 15 years.
Determine the ARI of Qp > 1500 m3/s.
ar
478
252
926
1760 430
10
212 317
11
12
13
14
549
392
631
1320
3/s)
Year
Q
(m3/s)
15
970
16
438
17
954
18
19
20
1220 2040 796
21
22
1500 59
3
23
484
24
347
25
160
0
26
65
4
27
51
3
28
85
8