Low Flow Calculations

In NPDES permits the permitted industry or municipality must

meet certain requirements with regards to the toxicity of their
effluent. The percent of the effluent being discharged to the
receiving stream that must not be toxic is based on the historically
based low flow conditions of the receiving system. For example,
if under low flow conditions in freshwater the effluent can occupy
65% of the flow of the stream, in the biomonitoring toxicity tests
(Short-term Chronic, 7-day Ceriodaphnia dubia survival and
reproduction test and the Pimephales promelas survival and
growth test) must reveal that the effluent is not toxic at a dilution
of 65% or lower. The rationale is that under low flow conditions
the effluent cannot occupy more than 65% of the stream but can
constitute that much of the flow or lower. Therefore, the effluent
cannot be toxic when diluted to 65% by upstream or laboratory
water.

Depending on the State and the EPA Region, what constitutes the
historic low flow conditions can vary. Most often the low flow is
based on the 7Q10 flow. In Texas the low flow is based on the
7Q2 flow. The definition of 7Q10 is, the lowest average discharge
over a period of one week with a recurrence interval of 10 years.
Since the value of N for the 7Q10 is 10 years, there is only a 10%
probability that there will be a lower flow in any given year.
There is a 90% probability that the flow will be greater than the
7Q10 value. The definition of 7Q2 is the lowest average
discharge over a period of one week with a recurrence interval of
2 years. Since the value of N for the 7Q2 is 2 years, there is a
50% probability that there will be a lower flow in any given year.
Or, in other words, there is a 50% probability that there will be a
flow greater than the 7Q2 in any given year.

Given the following record of stream flow data, estimate the 7Q10
flow for the stream.
Year

Lowest Seven-Day
Average Flow, m3/s

1980

4.4

1981

2.8

1982

4.0

1983

3.4

1984

5.2

Solution: First arrange the flow data in decreasing order of

magnitude and assign a rank or m value to each flow, beginning
with 1 and increasing sequentially. In the case of ties assign the
tied scores the average of the tied ranks.

For example, the following data 2.6, 3.2, 3.2 3.2 and 4.5 m3/s
would be ranked 1 for 4.5, and 3 for each of the 3.2 values and 5
for the 2.6 value. Had there only been two 3.2 values the average
rank would have been 2.5 for each of these values. The
probability of observing an equal or higher flow in any given year
is estimated by dividing the rank m by the number of years of
record plus 1 (n+1); in this example n = 5. In formula form the
probability P = m/(n+1).
Low Flow, m3/s

Rank

Probability

5.2

1/6=0.167

4.4

2/6=0.333

4.0

3/6=0.500

3.4

4/6=0.667

2.8

5/6=0.833

Plot the data on log probability paper with the y-axis as the Yearly
7-Consecutive Day Low Flow, m3/s, and the x-axis as the
Probability of a Larger Flow.

If an industry is discharging 2.53 m3 into the receiving

system represented by the calculations we just made i.e. a
7Q10 of 2.72 and a 7Q2 of 4.0 m3/sec at what percent
effluent does the industry have to pass the WET
requirements in their NPDES permit?

Calculations:
7Q10 2.53 m3 + 2.72 m3 = 5.25 m3 2.53/5.22 = 48%
under low flow conditions the effluent could not
occupy more than 48% the flow of the receiving
system.
7Q2 2.53 m3 + 4.0 m3/sec = 6.53 m3/sec 2.53/6.53
m3/sec = 39% under low flow conditions the effluent
could not occupy more than 39% of the flow of the
receiving system.

Using the methodology given above determine both the 7Q10

and the 7Q2 flow for the data shown in the Table on the next
page. The data represent the lowest seven-day average flow
Generally
the USGS defines a water year as the period from
3
m /s for the year shown. How is this determined?
October 1 to September 30.
Low flow calculations (e.g. 7Q10) are calculated based on data
collected between April 1 and March 31.

Year

Lowest Seven-Day Ave. Flow m3/s

1973

5.6

1974

4.3

1975

2.1

1976

6.7

1977

6.2

1978

6.9

1979

3.1

1980

4.1

1981

5.1

1982

4.9

1983

4.7

1984

3.9

1985

3.1

1986

2.1

1987

2.8

1988

2.1

1989

7.2

1990

7.1

1991

6.4

1992

5.1

1993

4.4

Rank High to Low

Low Flow m3/s

Rank

Probability