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    Ict Summit 2010 17 February 2010

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    The document summarizes the key points from the OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010 report. It discusses: 1) The macroeconomic outlook has improved since mid-2009 but is still slow, while Asia is experiencing stronger growth. Unemployment is expected to rise in 2010. 2) The OECD ICT sector growth is projected to be 2-3% in 2010 after declining in 2009, and employment in the sector is also expected to fall in 2010. 3) ICT markets are shifting to non-OECD economies, which now account for around a quarter of global ICT markets. It is uncertain if these economies will remain decoupled from slower growth in OECD countries.

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    Ict Summit 2010 17 February 2010

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    The document summarizes the key points from the OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010 report. It discusses: 1) The macroeconomic outlook has improved since mid-2009 but is still slow, while Asia is experiencing stronger growth. Unemployment is expected to rise in 2010. 2) The OECD ICT sector growth is projected to be 2-3% in 2010 after declining in 2009, and employment in the sector is also expected to fall in 2010. 3) ICT markets are shifting to non-OECD economies, which now account for around a quarter of global ICT markets. It is uncertain if these economies will remain decoupled from slower growth in OECD countries.

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    The document summarizes the key points from the OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010 report. It discusses: 1) The macroeconomic outlook has improved since mid-2009 but is still slow, while Asia is experiencing stronger growth. Unemployment is expected to rise in 2010. 2) The OECD ICT sector growth is projected to be 2-3% in 2010 after declining in 2009, and employment in the sector is also expected to fall in 2010. 3) ICT markets are shifting to non-OECD economies, which now account for around a quarter of global ICT markets. It is uncertain if these economies will remain decoupled from slower growth in OECD countries.

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    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    40 views12 pages

    Ict Summit 2010 17 February 2010

    Uploaded by

    api-25902745
    The document summarizes the key points from the OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010 report. It discusses: 1) The macroeconomic outlook has improved since mid-2009 but is still slow, while Asia is experiencing stronger growth. Unemployment is expected to rise in 2010. 2) The OECD ICT sector growth is projected to be 2-3% in 2010 after declining in 2009, and employment in the sector is also expected to fall in 2010. 3) ICT markets are shifting to non-OECD economies, which now account for around a quarter of global ICT markets. It is uncertain if these economies will remain decoupled from slower growth in OECD countries.

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    of 12

    ICT SUMMIT 2010

    17 February 2010

    International ICT Industry


    Summit on ICT Economic
    Stimulus, Employment
    and Investment Policies
    Information Technology
    Outlook 2010
    Graham Vickery OECD
    2010 Outlook Overview

    • Macroeconomic outlook improved since mid-


    2009, OECD slow and hesitant, Asia “boom”
    • Macroeconomic and ICT sector projections
    successively revised upwards
    • Business confidence picking up but still low
    • Unemployment up in 2010 - pressure on
    consumer expenditures, business sentiment low
    • Government budget deficits are historically high

    2
    2010 Outlook Overview
    • OECD ICT sector near-term outlook: 2009 negative,
    2010 2-3% growth, 2011 improve more
    • ICT employment: production and markets fell in 2009
    => employment falling 2010
    • ICT markets shifting to non-OECD economies - around
    one-quarter of global markets, and top 250 ICT firms
    increasingly non-OECD
    • Will non-OECD economies remain decoupled from
    OECD countries?
    • Long-term performance: new goods and services for
    business and consumers, e.g. mobile services

    3
    ICT goods – output growth
    December 2007-September 2009
    Year-on-year percentage change, 3-month moving average

    Canada Germany Sweden United Kingdom United State


    %
    China Korea France Chinese Taipei Japan
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    -10
    -20
    -30
    -40
    -50
    -60
    ec
    D

    ec
    D
    ct
    O
    g
    u
    A

    g
    u
    A
    r
    p
    A

    r
    p
    A
    Jan

    Feb

    ep
    S

    ov
    N

    Jan

    Feb

    ep
    S
    ay
    M

    ay
    M
    n
    Ju

    l -0
    Ju

    n
    Ju

    l -0
    Ju
    ar
    M

    ar
    M
    -0

    -0
    -0

    -0

    9
    -0
    -0

    -0
    -0

    -0

    -0

    -0
    -0

    -0
    -0

    -0
    8

    -0

    9
    8

    9
    -0

    -0
    8
    -0

    -0
    8

    9
    8

    9
    7

    8
    8

    9
    8
    8

    9
    8

    9
    Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010. 4
    Top 250 ICT firms’ revenue trends by sector
    2000-20091
    Index 2000 = 100
    Communicationsequipment Electronics&components ITequipment ITservices
    Semiconductors Software Telecommunications
    300

    250

    200

    150

    100

    50

    0
    Note: Figure20does
    00 not include
    2001 Internet firms
    2002 which had a revenue increase
    2003 2004 by more
    2005than 800%20in
    062008 compared
    2007 to 2000. 2008 2009
    1. Data for 2000 to 2004 are based on the ITO 2008 panel of 250 firms. Values for 2009 are estimated based on firms’ interim
    reports.
    5
    Source: OECD, Information Technology database, from annual reports, SEC filings, market financials.
    Top 250 ICT firms’ revenue growth
    by economy of registration, 2000-2008
    Average annual growth, percentages

    70%
    60%
    50%
    40%
    30%
    20%
    10%
    0%
    -10%
    -20%

    1. 2004-2008 average annual growth rates.


    Source: OECD, Information Technology database, from annual reports, SEC filings, market financials.
    OECD ICT spending by market segment, 2009
    C om puter H ardw are C om puter Softw are C om puter Serv ic es C
    1 000 000

    900 000 175 000

    800 000
    150 000

    700 000

    125 000
    600 000

    500 000 100 000

    400 000
    75 000

    300 000
    50 000
    200 000

    25 000
    100 000
    Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010.
    0 0 7
    Share of ICT goods in total merchandise
    exports, 1996-2008
    percentages

    1996 2008

    35

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010.


    8
    OECD broadband subscribers per 100
    inhabitants, by technology, June 2009

    40
    O the r Fib re/L A N Ca ble DS L
    35

    30

    25

    20 O ECD

    15

    10

    Source: OECD Broadband Portal January 2010.


    9
    What are OECD governments doing in
    turbulent times?
    Policy area Crisis priority

    1. ICT skills and employment 15


    2. Broadband diffusion 14
    3. Enabling environmental impacts of ICTs 11
    4. Innovation networks and clusters 10 each
    Technology diffusion to businesses
    R&D programmes
    Venture finance
    Basis: 23 countries indicating at least one ICT policy area with increased focus for
    economic recovery.

    Increased
    Policy area High priority
    priority

    1. Security of information systems and networks 23 11


    2. Broadband diffusion 21 9
    3. Government on-line 21 8
    4. ICT R&D programmes 17 11
    5. Innovation networks and clusters 17 8
    Enabling environmental impacts of ICTs 10 15
    Basis: 27 responding countries.
    How is Turkey performing?
    ICT policy priorities, OECD and Turkey, 2010

    Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010. 11


    Did the crisis change anything?
    ICT priority responses
    • Areas where Turkey indicated increased priority
    in response to the economic crisis:
    • ICT skills and employment
    • Broadband diffusion

    • Most prioritised areas across OECD countries:


    • ICT skills and employment
    • Broadband diffusion
    • Enabling environmental impacts of ICT (“Green ICTs”)
    • R&D programmes, Venture finance, Innovation
    networks and clusters, Technology diffusion to
    businesses

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