WHY TO MEASURE UNCERTAINTY ?

DOUBT ON A RESULT IS ESTIMATED

MEASUREMENTS ARE BASIS OF ANY CONTROL
ACTION/ PROCESS. UNCERTAINTY HELPS TO
ADJUST IT TO CLOSE TOLERANCES
IT GIVES BEST ESTIMATE OF TRUE VALUE
HELPS FOR INTERCOMPARISON
HELPS TO DECIDE COMPLIANCE
PARTICULARLY IN CRITICAL CASES
IT IS QUANTITATIVE MEASURE OF QUALITY OF
RESULT
1

Types of Errors
Gross Errors
Systematic Errors
Random Errors

Gross Errors
Cannot be treated mathematically
Can be avoided with utmost care
Example:
Mistakes in reading
Recording data
Interpretation of measurement data

Systematic Errors
- Constant throughout the measurement
process
Example:
Selection of improper instruments
Impedance mismatch
Different influence condition
4

Random Errors
Unpredictable
Random in nature
Beyond operators control
Example:
Method of measurement
Instability of M&TE
Personal Judgement of Operator
Uncontrolled environmental conditions
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Estimation of Uncertainty
Identify each component
Estimate standard deviation for each
Also termed as standard uncertainty (U i)
Calculate combined standard uncertainty(U C)
Determine Expanded uncertainty (UE)
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Estimation of Standard Uncertainty

There are two methods of evaluation
Type A evaluation
Type B evaluation

Evaluation of Standard Uncertainty

Type A
Generally arise out of random effects
Follow Gaussian or Normal distribution
Evaluation based on analysis of observations
by statistical analysis

Evaluation of Standard Uncertainty

Type B
Evaluated by means other than statistical
analysis of data
Usually based on manufacturers spec, data
provided on calibration report

Estimation of Type A Standard

Uncertainty
Take repeated measurement under same
condition
Calculate mean and standard deviation
_
Mean (X) = (X1+X2+X3+.+Xn)/n
Standard Deviation () =
_
_
_
1/(n-1)[(X1-X)2+(X2-X)2+..+(Xn-X)2]
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Estimation of Type A Standard

Uncertainty
Standard Uncertainty of n observations is
given by

_
Ui=/ n

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Estimation of Type B Standard

Uncertainty

Identify the uncertainty component and its

probability distribution
Calculate standard deviation depending upon
distribution
For rectangular distribution

standard deviation = A/3

where A= accuracy of instrument
If uncertainty(U) is given,

standard deviation = U/K

where K = coverage Factor

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Combined Uncertainty (Uc)

_____________________
UC = U12+ U22 + U22 +..+ Un2

Expanded Uncertainty (Ue)

UE= k.UC
Where K=Coverage Factor

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Calculation of Effective degrees

of Freedom
Effective degrees of Freedom(Veff)
Veff =

(Uc)4
n

(Ui/Vi)4
i=1
For rectangular distribution Veff = infinity and

For normal distribution Veff = n-1

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EXAMPLE 1
MU OF A PISTON DIAMETER
STD USED MICROMETER; 0-25 mm,
with Accuracy of +/- 4 micron.
Measurement Temp. : + 22.0 deg C.
Temp. coeff.: 11.5E-6 per deg C.
Observed readings of dia - 20.254; 20.234;
20.225; 20.263 and 20.224 mm
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Uncertainty calculations
Source of
uncertainty

Value Ui
(micron)

Type Probabi- Standard

lity
Uncertainty
Distributi (micron)
on

Micrometer
Accuracy

4.0

U1

Rect

2.31

Effect of
Temp.

0.46

U2

Rect

0.23

Repeatability 17.6

U3

Normal

8.8
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Combined Uncertainty
UC = U12+ U22 + U22 +..+ Un2
= 2.312 + 0.23 2 + 8.82
=9.1 micron
Expanded Uncertainty (Ue)
Ue = k*UC Where K=Coverage Factor =2
= 2* 9.1 = 18.2 micron
= 0.018 mm
Final Result : Piston Dia = 20.240 +/- 0.02 mm @CF =
2; CORRESPONDING TO 95.45% CL
17

Combined Uncertainty
UC = U12+ U22 + U22 +..+ Un2
= 2.312 + 0.27 2 + 8.82
=9.1 micron
Expanded Uncertainty (Ue)
Ue = k*UC Where K=Coverage Factor =2
= 2* 9.1 = 18.2 micron
= 0.018 mm
Final Result : Piston Dia = 20.240 +/- 0.02 mm
@CF = 2 CORRESPONDING TO 95.45% CL18

EXAMPLE 2
MU OF A RESISTANCE OF 10 ohm
STD USED MULTIMETER with
Uncertainty of +/- 50 ppm.
Measurement Temp. : + 23.5 deg C.
Temp. coeff.: NOT APPLICABLE
Observed readings of R 10.0043, 10.0047,
10.0044, 10.0041, 10.0043, 10.0049, 10.0045,
10.0043, 10.0050, 10.0046 ohm.
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Uncertainty calculations
Source of
uncertainty

Value
(ohm)

Ui

Type Probabi- Standard

lity
Uncertainty
Distribut (ohm)
ion

uncertainty
Of std.

5E-4

U1

Normal

2.5E-4

Repeatability 2.89E-4 U3

Normal

9.14E-5

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Combined Uncertainty
UC = U12+ U22 + U22 +..+ Un2
= (2.5E-4)2+(9.14E-5)2
= 2.66E-4 ohm
Expanded Uncertainty (Ue)
Ue = k*UC Where K=Coverage Factor =2
= 2* 2.66E-4 = 5.32E-4 ohm
Final Result : Resistance = 10.0045 +/- 5.32E-4
21
ohm @ CF = 2 CORRESPONDING TO 95.45%

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