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Morning View 24 Feb 10
Morning View 24 Feb 10
Back on December 11th , I posted a thread entitled: “Is Erin Burnett Putting a Top in
Brazil?” At that time I noted her amazing ability to “top tick” various countries and regions
with her mere presence, as she is the ultimate lagging indicator to a “hot story.” Check out
what the Brazilian ETF has done since that showed air. This looks like a market that has
peaked. It has broken through the 23.6% retracement level and has suffered the most
severe decline since the Mar ’08 lows. It’s probably time for “investors” to get out of this
“hot sector.” It could be a better buy down in the 40’s…
I’ve highlighted this Agricultural ETF a few time in the past as good example of a horrible
looking chart. This sort of sideways choppy price action is the ultimate “tell” of a market
that is biding it’s time before the next wave down. As of this moment, this looks like a chart
that’s breaking down out of a triangle pattern. The main hope for bulls is that this has been
a bullish triangle development of some kind and we get one more (C) Wave thrust which
WILL conclude the entire corrective pattern. Either way, this is not an ETF that longer term
investors should be holding. A break below 23.624.07 would look very bearish.
Alt: ( A )
(C)
-B-
(A) ( E )?
Alt: ( B )
24.07
23.6 (D)
(B)
-A-
[2]
[.4]
[1]
[.1]
[4]?
[.2]
These shorter term wave counts can get a bit silly--it’s virtually
impossible to accurately measure such things as an “overnight”
session and see a wave count that makes sense. However, it
does look like “something” concluded at 1112.75. So far, all I
see is three waves down and a fourth being formed overnight.
It will be interesting to note if this turns into a “five.” Breaking
[3]?
above 1101 will be our clue that this is NOT an impulse, but
rather a micro [abc] lower.