Ebola Crisis: More Than

A Health Crisis
A comparative study between the
severity of Ebola and the economic
impact on the Western economies.
Fabian Wanders
1523929
Group 43
Configuring the World
Ms. Kelch

Background
As

of November 30th, 17,145 cases and

6,070 deaths had been reported worldwide. (
The Economist)

Projected

2014 growth rates in the afflicted

economies has declined significantly (World
Bank):
Liberia: 2.2 percent (versus 5.9 percent before the
crisis).
Sierra Leone: 4.0 percent (versus 11.3 percent
before the crisis).
Guinea: 0.5 percent (versus 4.5 percent before the
crisis).

Hypothesis
Hypothesis = There will be a strong correlation between the
consumer confidence in the U.S. and the E.U. and the
amount of Ebola infections and deaths.

The concern for the Ebola epidemic is significant in the

contemporary economy.

Epidemics are often connected with a higher amount of

death rates and infections

High death rates and infections tend to have a negative

effect on the economy of a country.

Hence, it is important to study the correlation between

economy and the rates on Ebola infections.

The case studies

Areas with widespread transmission of
Ebola:
Guinea
Liberia
Sierra Leone

Areas, which are economically significant

in the global economy, and are therefore
easily effected by foreign affairs.
U.S.
E.U.

Variables of comparison
Determinants of
Determinants for
economic
impact:
Unemployment Rate
Consumer
Confidence Index
Inflation rate

severity of Ebola
epidemic:
Amount of cases
(cumulative)
Amount of HIV/
AIDS cases
Amount of
Respiratory
infection cases

The Economic Determinants

Explained
Consumer

Confidence Index

A survey by the Conference Board that measures how

optimistic or pessimistic consumers are with respect
to the economy in the near future. (Investopedia)
Unemployment rate:
The percentage of people who are not working but
who are actively seeking employment.
Inflation

rate

The rate at which the general level of prices for goods

and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing
power is falling.(Investopedia)

The determinants of severity of

the Ebola epidemic
Amount

of Ebola cases

The number of infected people, being

confirmed by patient databases in the
afflicted countries.
As

a comparison 2 other widely

transmitted diseases are used to signify
the severity:
Amount of HIV/ AIDS cases

Cumulative number of Ebola cases in Guinea (2014)

6000
5000
4000
3000

Guin
ea

2000
Cumulative number of Ebola cases

Liber
ia

1000
0

Source: World Health Organization

Notes:
There

are some flaws in the measurement

because a certain amount of cases hasnt
been confirmed by patient databases.
Missing data:
Liberia: From 24 Feb. to 23 March, 14 April to 4
May, 17 Nov to 30 Nov
Sierra Leone: From 24 Feb to 4 May

There seems to be a significant rise in

the amount of cases from 11 August
onwards.

Sierra Leone has to deal with the

highest transmission of the Ebola
Virus, and multiple speculations tend
to say that the country will be the
most economically affected by the
epidemic.

Consumer Confidence Indicator For E.U.

0.0

Notes:

From March to
November 2014, the
CCI decreased by 1,6
points.

The strongest
downward movement is
situated in the third
quarter of 2014,
dropping 4,2 points
between May and
September.

The drop took off at the

start of the Ebola
epidemic.

-5.0

-10.0

-15.0

Consumer
Confidence E.U.

-20.0

-25.0

Source: European Commission services

The CCI for the E.U. is registered on the basis of consumer

survey data from all member countries.
The Consumer Confidence Indicator measures consumer
confidence on a scale of -100 to 100, where -100 indicate
extreme lack of confidence, 0 neutrality and 100 extreme
confidence. (Trading Economics)

Consumer Sentiment Index(CSI)in the

United States

90

Index (December 1964= 100)

Notes

The CSI has

fluctuated
considerably over
the past years

Analytics have
been concerned
that Ebola could
scare consumers
and lead them to
cut back on
spending, though
there is happening
the opposite.

The CSI rose in

November to its
highest level since
July 2007.

85
80
75
70
65

Source: Reuters/ University of Michigan

The CSI is calculated on the base of a survey, which

questions how people are getting along financially.

The index rises when consumers regain confidence in the

economy, which portends increased consumer spending
and thus economic growth. (Investopedia)

Correlation between U.S. Consumer Confidence index and the

total amount of Ebola cases in the three afflicted countries

Notes

Consumer Confidence Vs. Ebola Cases

90
88
86

f(x) = 0x + 82.32
R = 0.27

From March to
November 2014,
A higher amount
of Ebola cases is
correlated with a
higher consumer
confidence in the
U.S.

R=. 522, it can be

stated that there
is a weak
correlation
between the two
variables.

84
82

Consumer Confidence Index (0- 100)

80

Consumer Confidence
Vs. Ebola Cases
Linear (Consumer
Confidence Vs. Ebola
Cases)

78
76
74

500 1000150020002500300035004000
Amount of Ebola Cases

Source:
1. Reuters/ University of Michigan
2. World Health Organization

Correlation between E.U. Consumer Confidence index and the

total amount of Ebola cases in the three afflicted countries

E.U. Consumer Confidence Vs. Ebola Cases

E.U. Consum er Confidence (-100 - 100)

E.U. Consumer
Confidence Vs. Ebola
Cases

Notes

From March to
November 2014,
A higher amount
of Ebola cases is
correlated with a
lower consumer
confidence in the
E.U.

R=. 722, it can be

stated that there
is a mediocre
negative
correlation
between the two
variables.

Sources:
1. European commission services
2. World Health Organization

Amount of Ebola Cases

Notes
The

correlations between CCI and the amount of

Ebola Cases do not show a strong causal
relationship, therefore speculations are made on
the base of consumer fear caused by Ebola, which
tend to be the consequence of the increase or
decrease in consumer sentiment.
Multiple researchers and analytics believe thatthe
impact of Ebola on US and E.U. Consumer
confidence can be controlled by governmental
institutions. Their focus should be on the control of
newspaper headlines and minimizing the
importation of Ebola cases into the U.S. or E.U..

U.S. Inflation Rate Vs. The Amount of Ebola Cases

2.5
2
f(x) = - 0x + 1.94
R = 0.2

1.5
Inflation Rate

U.S. Inflation Rate Vs.

The Amount of Ebola
Cases
Linear (U.S. Inflation
Rate Vs. The Amount of
Ebola Cases)

higher amount of Ebola

cases is correlated with a
lower inflation rate in the U.S.
R=. 445, it can be stated that
there is a minor negative
correlation between the two
variables.

0.5
0
0 1000200030004000
Amount of Ebola Cases

E.U. Inflation Rate Vs. The Amount of Ebola Cases

Source:
1. US inflation calculator
2. WHO

higher amount of Ebola

cases is correlated with a
lower inflation rate in the E.U.
R=. 778, it can be stated that
there is a mediocre negative
correlation between the two
variables.

0.8
0.7

0.6
0.5
Inflation rate

0.4

E.U. Inflation Rate Vs.

The Amount of Ebola
Cases

f(x) = - 0x + 0.54
R = 0.61

Linear (E.U. Inflation

Rate Vs. The Amount of
Ebola Cases)

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Amount of Ebola Cases

Source:
1. European Central Bank
2. WHO

E.U. Unemployment Rate Vs. The Amount of Ebola Cases

10.5
10.4
10.3
f(x) = - 0x + 10.29
R = 0.76

10.2
unemployment rate

E.U. Unemployment Rate

Vs. The Amount of Ebola
Cases
Linear (E.U.
Unemployment Rate Vs.
The Amount of Ebola
Cases)

10.1
10

higher amount of Ebola

cases is correlated with a
lower unemployment rate
in the E.U.
R=. 874, it can be stated
that there is a strong
negative correlation
between the two variables.

9.9
9.8
0

2000

4000

Amount of Ebola Cases

U.S. unemployment rate

6.8
6.6
6.4

higher amount of Ebola cases

is correlated with a lower
unemployment rate in the U.S.
R=. 732, it can be stated that
there is a mediocre negative
correlation between the two
variables.

f(x) = - 0x + 6.33
R = 0.54

6.2

unemployment rate

U.S. unemployment
rate
Linear (U.S.
unemployment rate)

5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
0

2000 4000

Source:
Amount of Ebola Cases
1. US Department of
Labor

Notes
The

inflation rate is not

significantly affected by
the amount of Ebola
cases.
However, between
March and October,
there is a mediocre
correlation between the
two variables in the
U.S.
The inflation rate in the
E.U. is to a minimal
extent influenced by
the amount of cases.

On

the other hand,

the unemployment
rates are
considerably affected
by the amount of
Ebola cases.
There is a mediocre
to strong correlation
between the
unemployment rates
and the amount of
cases.

IS THE FEAR FOR

EBOLA LEGITIMATE?
A comparison between HIV/AIDS and
Ebola
Key facts
Ebola have claimed more than 6300 lives this year
The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in
the human population through human-to-human transmission.
The average EVD case fatality rate is around 50%. Case fatality rates
have varied from 25% to 90% in past outbreaks.
The first outbreaks occurred in remote villages in Central Africa, near
tropical rainforests, but the most recent outbreak in west Africa has
involved major urban as well as rural areas. The change of infection
is therefore much higher because these areas are densely populated
and the chance of expansion is consequently higher.
Early supportive care with rehydration, symptomatic treatment
improves survival. There is as yet no licensed treatment proven to
neutralize the virus but a range of blood, immunological and drug
therapies are under development.
There are currently no licensed Ebola vaccines

Key facts
HIV continues to be a major global public health issue,
having claimed more than 39 million lives so far. In 2013,
1.5 [1.41.7] million people died from HIV-related causes
globally.
There were approximately 35.0 [33.237.2] million people
living with HIV at the end of 2013 with 2.1 [1.92.4] million
people becoming newly infected with HIV in 2013 globally.
There is no cure for HIV infection. However, effective
treatment with antiretroviral (ARV) drugs can control the
virus so that people with HIV can enjoy healthy and
productive lives.

When we are looking to the death rates, there is a sizable difference

between HIV and Ebola. However the fatality rates of Ebola are still high and
transmission to the disease can be disastrous, due to the fact that there is
no licensed vaccine and the infection is concentrated largely in urban areas.
Putting it in perspective, the Fear of Ebola is misplaced, the Ebola virus has
taken more than 6000 lives in 2014, yet the HIV Virus has a much higher

Source: World Health

Conclusion
High Amount of Ebola cases in the three most afflicted countries has a
minor effect on the economy of the E.U. and the U.S.
The Consumer Confidence Index has shown weak to mediocre
correlation with the amount of Ebola cases, and therefore not
significantly influenced by Ebola transmission.
The inflation rate is affected to a minor extent by the amount of Ebola
cases.
However, the unemployment rate is influenced by the Ebola
Transmission and shows a mediocre to strong correlation with the
amount of Ebola Cases.
Thus, Economic downfall or upturns can be to a minor extent be
attributed to the Amount of Ebola cases, possibly more to the fear,
which is created by the transmission

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1.

"Ebola Virus Disease."WHO. World Health Organization, n.d. Web. 08 Dec. 2014.

2.

The Data Team. "The Toll of a Tragedy."The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, 11
Oct. 2014. Web. 08 Dec. 2014.

3.

Harding, Andrew. "Ebola: World Bank Lowers 2014 Growth for Worst-hit Nations."BBC
News. BBC, 2 Dec. 2014. Web. 11 Dec. 2014.

4.

"Finance & Development."IMF. International Monetary Fund, n.d. Web. 11 Dec. 2014.

5.

"Business and Consumer Surveys."European Commission. European Commission

Services, n.d. Web. 11 Dec. 2014.

6.

"Euro Area Consumer Confidence1985-2014 | Data | Chart | Calendar."Trading

Economics. N.p., n.d. Web. 11 Dec. 2014.

7.

"U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index - September 2014 | Statistic."Statista. Statista, n.d.

Web. 11 Dec. 2014.

8.

"2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa - Case Counts."Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. Cen

9.

"US Inflation Calculator."US Inflation Calculator. N.p., n.d. Web. 08 Dec. 2014.ters for
Disease Control and Prevention, 06 Dec. 2014. Web. 08 Dec. 2014.

10.

"Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject."Bureau of Labor Statistics Data. US

Department of Labor, n.d. Web. 11 Dec. 2014.