Renewable energy and

sustainable energy balances

Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
@kornelisblok

17/12/2013

The growth of renewable energy .

>What may renewable energy contribute in 2030?

>How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems?
>How to incentivize renewable energy?

ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

What may renewable energy

contribute in 2030?

ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

Renewable energy: 40% in 2030

Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy A 2030 Scenario for the EU

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ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

Renewable energy by sector

Buildings

Transport

Manufacturing
industry

Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy A 2030 Scenario for the EU

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ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

Investments and return-on-investment

(energy efficiency + renewable energy)

Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy A 2030 Scenario for the EU

6

ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

How to integrate renewable energy

in electricity systems?

ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

Germany, business-as-used-to-be

ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Kees van der Leun

Germany, the new world (June 2013!)

ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Kees van der Leun

Germany, prices-as-used-to-be

10

ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Kees van der Leun

Germany, prices in the new world (June 2013!)

11

ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Kees van der Leun

Flexibility options for power systems

12

ECOFYS | 19/09/15 |

The impact of grid constraints

13

ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

Grid constraints and total system costs

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ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

How to incentivize
renewable energy?

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ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

Still diversity of support schemes in Europe but

with some converging trends

Source:
Ecofys based on
Ragwitz et al. (2012). REShaping
Ecofys et al. (2012). RE
progress and biofuels
sustainability.

ECOFYS | 19/09/15 | Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse

The MS are currently on track with their 2011/2012

trajectory but projections do not look good for 2020

Source:
Ecofys based on
Ecofys et al. (2012). RE
progress and biofuels
sustainability.

ECOFYS | 19/09/15 | Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse

Lessons from MS experience tell us how to design

effective and efficient RES-E support schemes
Lessons learnt

Best practice design criteria

Provide reliable framework: frequent

and unexpected policy changes
undermine investor confidence

Reflect and limit investment risks:

risk-conscious (triple-A) policies
increase growth and reduce support
costs by up to 50%

Adjust level of support to technology

and market conditions

ECOFYS | 19/09/15 | Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse

Policy changes transparent and predictable (e.g.

automatic degression, clear formula for quota
setting, pre-set revision agenda)
No retroactive changes
Long term political commitment
Guarantee support level for long term
Consultation with stakeholders
Tailor support scheme to RE market deployment
status and electricity market readiness
No abrupt or retroactive policy changes
Avoid rigid budget or capacity caps
Simple, transparent permitting process
Priority grid access and dispatch
Quota: long term horizon and serious penalties
Government facilitates access to capital (e.g.
participation, financial guarantees, loans)

Apply technology specific support levels

Calculate level of support based on LCOE, so
support neither too low nor too high
Planned and transparent adjustments based on
technology and market changes

Thank you!

Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

Director of Science
Ecofys
Kanaalweg 15-G
3526 KL Utrecht
Phone: 030-6623399
E-mail: k.blok@ecofys.com
Twitter: @kornelisblok
www.ecofys.com

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ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

sustainable energy
for everyone

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ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

Back-up slides

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ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions

IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation
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ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation
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ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

CO2 emissions from fossil and renewable sources

Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy A 2030 Scenario for the EU

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ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok