CMU SCS

Rise and Fall Patterns of

Information Diffusion:
Model and Implications
Yasuko Matsubara (Kyoto University),
Yasushi Sakurai (NTT), B. Aditya Prakash (CMU),
Lei Li (UCB), Christos Faloutsos (CMU)
KDD12, Beijing China
KDD 2012

Y. Matsubara et al.

CMU SCS

Rise and fall patterns in social media

Meme (# of mentions in blogs)
short phrases Sourced from U.S. politics in 2008

you can put lipstick on a pig

yes we can

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

CMU SCS

Rise and fall patterns in social media

four classes on YouTube [Crane et al. 08]
six classes on Meme [Yang et al. 11]
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Rise and fall patterns in social media

Can we find a unifying model, which
includes these patterns?
four classes on YouTube [Crane et al. 08]
six classes on Meme [Yang et al. 11]
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Rise and fall patterns in social media

Answer: YES!

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SpikeM

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We can represent all patterns by single model

Google, June 2013

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Main idea - SpikeM

- 1. Un-informed bloggers (uninformed about rumor)
- 2. External shock at time nb (e.g, breaking news)
- 3. Infection (word-of-mouth)

Time n=0

Time n=nb

Time n=nb+1

Infectiveness of a blog-post at age n:

- Strength of infection (quality of news)

f(n)
- 2013Decay function
Google, June
C. Faloutsos (CMU)
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CMU SCS

Main idea - SpikeM

- 1. Un-informed bloggers (uninformed about rumor)
- 2. External shock at time nb (e.g, breaking news)
- 3. Infection (word-of-mouth)

Time n=0

Time n=nb

Time n=nb+1

Infectiveness of a blog-post at age n:

- Strength of infection (quality of news)

1.5
f(n)
f (n) * 7n
- 2013Decay function
Google, June
C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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-1.5 slope
J. G. Oliveira & A.-L. Barabsi Human Dynamics: The
Correspondence Patterns of Darwin and Einstein.
Nature 437, 1251 (2005) . [PDF]

Prob(RT > x)
(log)

-1.5

Response time (log)

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

Details

CMU SCS

SpikeM - with periodicity

Full equation of SpikeM
n

B(n1) p(n1)U(n)
(B(t) S(t))f (n1 t)

tn

b
Periodicity

noon
Bloggers change their
activity over time

activity

Peak

3am
Dip

(e.g., daily, weekly,

yearly)

p(n)
Time n

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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Details

Analysis exponential rise and power-raw fall

Rise-part

Lin-log

SI -> exponential
SpikeM -> exponential

Log-log
Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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Details

Analysis exponential rise and power-raw fall

Fall-part

Lin-log

SI -> exponential
SpikeM -> power law
Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

Log-log
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Tail-part forecasts
SpikeM can capture tail part

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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What-if forecasting
(1) First
spike

(2) Release
date

(3) Two weeks before

release

?
e.g., given (1) first spike,
(2) release date of two sequel movies
(3) access volume before the release date
Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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What-if forecasting
(1) First
spike

(2) Release
date

(3) Two weeks before

release

SpikeM can forecast upcoming spikes

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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Conclusions for spikes

Exp rise; PL decay
spikeM captures all patterns, with a few
parms
And can do extrapolation
And forecasting

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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Roadmap
Graph problems:
G1: Fraud detection BP
G2: Botnet detection spectral
G3: Beyond graphs: tensors and ``NELL

Influence propagation and spike modeling

Future research
Conclusions

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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Challenge#1: Time evolving

networks / tensors
Periodicities? Burstiness?
What is typical behavior of a node, over time
Heterogeneous graphs (= nodes w/ attributes)

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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Challenge #2: Connectome

brain wiring

Which neurons get activated by bee

How wiring evolves
Modeling epilepsy

Tom Mitchell

Google, June 2013

George Karypis

N. Sidiropoulos

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

V. Papalexakis

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Thanks

Thanks to: NSF IIS-0705359, IIS-0534205,

CTA-INARC; Yahoo (M45), LLNL, IBM, SPRINT,
Google, June 2013
C. Faloutsos (CMU)
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Google, INTEL, HP, iLab

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Project info: PEGASUS

www.cs.cmu.edu/~pegasus
Results on large graphs: with Pegasus +
hadoop + M45
Apache license
Code, papers, manual, video

Prof. U Kang
Google, June 2013

Prof. Polo Chau

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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Cast

Akoglu,
Leman

McGlohon,
Mary
Google, June 2013

Beutel,
Alex

Prakash,
Aditya

Chau,
Polo

Kang, U

Papalexakis,
Vagelis

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

Koutra,
Danai

Tong,
Hanghang
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References
Deepayan Chakrabarti, Christos Faloutsos: Graph
mining: Laws, generators, and algorithms. ACM
Comput. Surv. 38(1): (2006)

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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References
Christos Faloutsos, Tamara G. Kolda, Jimeng Sun:
Mining large graphs and streams using matrix and
tensor tools. Tutorial, SIGMOD Conference 2007:
1174

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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References
Yasuko Matsubara, Yasushi Sakurai, B. Aditya
Prakash, Lei Li, Christos Faloutsos, "Rise and Fall
Patterns of Information Diffusion: Model and
Implications", KDD12, pp. 6-14, Beijing, China,
August 2012

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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References
Jimeng Sun, Dacheng Tao, Christos
Faloutsos: Beyond streams and graphs:
dynamic tensor analysis. KDD 2006: 374383

Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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Overall Conclusions
G1: fraud detection
BP: powerful method
FaBP: faster; equally accurate; known
convergence

G2: botnets -> Eigenspokes

G3: Subject-Verb-Object ->
Tensors/GigaTensor
Spikes: spikeM (exp rise; PL drop)

Original
SpikeM

Value

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Google, June 2013

C. Faloutsos (CMU)

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