Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Quantitative Techiniques
Quantitative Techiniques
Problem 1
Use quantitative forecast methods for the data shown below.
a.
Compute for:
PERIOD
OBSERVATION
24
34
36
37
41
44
45
i.
NAVE METHOD
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
b. Plot the original time series and comment on the appropriateness of linear trend.
NAVE
Forecast
THREE-PERIOD
MOVING
AVERAGE
THREE-PERIOD
WEIGHTED
MOVING
AVERAGE
FOUR-PERIOD
MOVING
AVERAGE
FOUR-PERIOD
WEIGHTED
MOVING
AVERAGE
PERIOD
Demand
24
34
24
36
34
37
36
31
33
41
37
36
36
33
35
44
41
38
39
37
38
45
44
41
42
40
41
(Period 5) 24 + 34 + 36 + 37 / 4 = 33
(Period 6) 41 + 37 + 36 + 34 / 4 = 37
Solution (Three-Period
Weighted Average)
(Period 4) 36(3)+34(2)+24(1) / 6 = 33
(Period 5) 37(3)+36(2)+34(1) / 6 = 36
(Period 6) 41(3)+37(2)+36(1) / 6 = 39
(Period 7) 44(3)+41(2)+37(1) / 6 = 42
(Period 5) 37(4)+36(3)+34(2)+24(1) / 10 = 35
(Period 6) 41(4)+37(3)+36(2)+34(1) / 10 = 38
(Period 7) 44(4)+41(3)+37(2)+36(1)
/ 10 = 40
Solution (Four-Period
Moving
Average)
Demand
Three-Period Moving Average
Four-Period Moving Average
Nave Forecast
Three-Period Weighted Average
Four-Period Weighted Average
Problem 2
Suppose that the University of the West had the following data of its growth of enrollment from
2000-2008.
Year
Enrollment
2000
3000
2001
3200
2002
3600
2003
3650
2004
4000
2005
4200
2006
4300
Requirements:
2007
4410
a.
Forecast the 2009 enrollment
using three-year weighted4520
moving average forecast.
2008
b.
Using smooth a = 0.30, forecast the 2009 enrollment.
c.
Using MAD, solve for the forecasting error at a=0.10.
d.
Use four-year weighted moving average from 2004 to 2009.
Year
Enrollment
2000
3000
2001
3 year weighted
moving average
3 year weighted
moving average
30% Forecast
10% Forecast
Error
3200
3000
3000
200
2002
3600
3060
3020
580
2003
3650
3367
3222
3078
572
2004
4000
3558
3350
3135
865
3480
2005
4200
3817
3545
3222
978
3735
2006
4300
4042
3742
3320
980
3970
2007
4410
4217
3909
3418
992
4145
2008
4520
4338
4059
3517
1003
4294
4447
4197
3617
27786
32084
29327
2009
34880
4411
6170
24035
Solution (30%)
(2002) 3000 + .30 (3200 - 3000) = 3000
(2003) 3060 + .30 (3600 - 3060) = 3222
(2004) 3222 + .30 (3650 - 3222) = 3350
(2005) 3350 + .30 (4000 - 3350) = 3545
(2006) 3545 + .30 (4200 - 3545) = 3742
(2007) 3742 + .30 (4300 - 3742) = 3909
(2008) 3909 + .30 (4410 - 3909) = 4059
(2009) 4059 + .30 (4520 - 4059) = 4197
Solution (10%)
Error
= 6170
8
Four-Year Weighted
Average
= 771.25
MAD
Problem 3
For the 2007-2008 Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) season, Pure Foods James Yap was the
scoring leader with an average of 33 points per game. The following data shows the average
number of points per game for the scoring leader from the 2002-2003 season to the 2007-2008
season.
Season
Average
2002-2003
25
2003-2004
35
2004-2005
29
2005-2006
34
2006-2007
35
2007-2008
33
a.) Use exponential smoothing to forecast this time series. Consider smoothing constant of a = 0.20
and a = 0.30. What value of the smoothing provides the best forecast?
b.) What is the forecast of the leading scoring average for the 2008-2009 season?
c.) Graph the forecast at a = 0.30.
Forecast
(0.20)
Error
(0.20)
Error
(0.20)
Forecast
(0.30)
Error
(0.30)
Error
(0.30)
35
25
10
100
25
49
2004-2005
29
27
28
2005-2006
34
27
49
28
16
2006-2007
35
28
49
30
2007-2008
33
29
16
32
16
76
Season
Average
2002-2003
25
2003-2004
2008-2009
30
Total
166
32
30
218
175
Solution (20%)
Forecast (0.20):
2004-2005:
F = 25 + 0.20(35-25)
= 25 + 0.20(10)
= 27
2005-2006:
2007-2008:
F = 27 + 0.20(29-27) F = 28 + 0.20(35-28)
= 27 + 0.20(2)
= 28 + 0.20(7)
= 27
= 29
2006-2007:
2008-2009:
F = 27 + 0.20(34-27) F = 29 + 0.20(33-29)
= 27 + 0.20(7)
= 29 + 0.20(4)
= 28
= 30
Error:
Error2:
MAD:
2004-2005: 35 - 25 = 10
2004-2005: 10 = 100
2005-2006: 29 - 27 = 2
2005-2006: 2 = 4
2006-2007: 34 - 27 =7
2007-2008: 35 - 28 = 7
2008-2009: 33 - 29 = 4
2006-2007: 7 = 49
2007-2008: 7 = 49
2008-2009: 4 = 16
30/5 = 6
MSE:
218/5 = 43.6
Solution (30%)
Forecast (0.30):
2004-2005:
F = 25 + 0.30(35-25)
2005-2006:
2007-2008:
F = 28 + 0.30(29-28)
F = 30 + 0.30(35-30)
= 28 + 0.30(1)
= 30 + 0.30(5)
= 28
= 32
= 25 + 0.30(10)
= 28
2006-2007:
2008-2009:
F = 28 + 0.30(34-28)
F = 32 + 0.30(33-32)
= 28 + 0.30(6)
= 32 + 0.30(1)
= 30
= 32
Error:
Error2:
MAD:
2004-2005: 35-28 = 7
2004-2005: 7= 49
2005-2006: 29-28 = 1
2005-2006: 1= 1
2006-2007: 34-30 = 4
2007-2008: 35-32 = 3
2008-2009: 33-32 = 1
2006-2007: 4= 16
2007-2008: 3= 9
2008-2009: 1= 1
16/5 = 3.2
MSE:
76/5 = 15.2
Average
Forecast (.2)
Forecast (.3)
Problem 4
Fill-up the vacant table. Given is as follows:
Week
Sales (1000)
23
36
45
46
55
64
55
58
66
Four-Week Moving
Average
Four-Week Weighted
Moving Average
Week
Sales
23000
36000
45000
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
46000
55000
64000
55000
58000
66000
65000
48000
67000
58000
68000
Four-Week Moving
Average
Four-Week Weighted
Moving Average
37500
45500
52500
55000
58000
60750
61000
59250
61500
59500
41400
48400
55800
56800
58000
61200
62900
57700
6080
59400
Problem 5
Use exponential smoothing with between 0.10 and 0.30 to get the forecast
one period ahead for the following time series.Use the initial value of F1 = 200
and identify which value of is the best
PERIOD
1
DEMAND
250
265
300
350
250
350
265
390
FORECAST
200
10%
30%
Period
Demand
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
250
200
50
200
50
265
205
60
215
50
300
211
89
230
70
350
220
130
251
99
250
233
17
281
-31
350
235
115
272
78
265
247
18
295
-30
390
249
141
286
104
350
263
87
317
33
10
400
272
128
327
73
11
470
285
185
349
121
2620
1020
3023
617
Total
Solution (10%)
Period 2:
Ft = 200 + .10 (250-200)
= 200 + 5
= 205
Period 3:
Ft = 205 + .10 (265-205)
= 205 + 6
= 211
Period 4:
Ft = 211 + .10 (300-211)
= 211 + 8.9
= 220
Period 5:
Ft = 220 + .10 (350-220)
= 220 + 13
= 233
Period 8:
Ft = 247 + .10 (265-247)
= 247 + 1.8
= 249
Period 6:
Ft = 233 + .10 (250-233)
= 233 + 1.7
= 235
Period 9:
Ft = 249 + .10 (390-249)
= 249 + 14.1
= 263
Period 7:
Ft = 235 + .10 (350-235)
= 235 + 11.5
= 247
Period 10:
Ft = 263 + .10 (350-263)
= 263 + 8.7
= 272
Period 11:
Ft = 272 + .10 (400-272)
= 272 + 12.8
= 285
Solution (30%)
Period 2:
Ft = 200 + .30 (250-200)
= 200 + 15
= 215
Period 3:
Ft = 215 + .30 (265-215)
= 215 + 15
= 230
Period 4:
Ft = 230 + .30 (300-230)
= 230 + 21
= 251
Period 5:
Ft = 251 + .30 (350-251)
= 251 + 29.7
= 281
Period 8:
Ft = 295 + .30 (265-295)
= 295 + -9
= 286
Period 6:
Ft = 281 + .30 (250-281)
= 281 + -9.3
= 272
Period 9:
Ft = 286 + .30 (390-286)
= 286 + 31.2
= 317
Period 7:
Ft = 272 + .30 (350-272)
= 272 + 23.4
= 295
Period 10:
Ft = 317 + .30 (350-317)
= 317 + 9.9
= 327
Period 11:
Ft = 327 + .30 (400-327)
= 327 + 21.9
= 349
Problem 6
ANVICOROSE building contracts for a 12-month period are (in million pesos) shown below:
Month
10
11
12
Demand
35
27
37
41
45
38
44
42
39
43
39
40
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Compare a four-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast using
= 0.30. Which of the two provides better forecasts?
What is the forecast for the next month?
Plot the original data and the four-month moving average on the same graph.
Plot the original data and the smoothing forecast on the same graph.
Compute the MAD and MSE.
4 Month
Moving
Average
30%
Forecast
Error
Error
27
35
-8
64
37
33
16
41
34
49
45
35
36
81
38
38
39
-1
44
40
39
25
42
42
41
39
42
41
-2
10
43
41
40
Month
Demand
35
11
39
42
41
-2
12
40
41
40
TOTAL
470
361
419
20
254
Month 9
(42+44+38+45)/4 = 42
Month 6
(45+41+37+27)/4 = 38
Month 10
(39+42+44+38)/4 = 41
Month 7
(38+45+41+37)/4 = 40
Month 8
(44+38+45+41)/4 = 42
Month 11
(43+39+42+44)/4 = 42
Month 12
(39+43+39+42)/4 = 41
Solution (30%)
Month 2:
Ft = 35 + .3 (27-35)
= 33
Month 3:
Ft = 33 + .3 (37-33)
= 34
Month 4:
Ft = 34 + .3 (41-34)
= 36
Month 5:
Ft = 36 + .3 (45-36)
= 39
Month 6:
Ft = 39 + .3 (38-39)
= 39
Month 10:
Ft = 40 + .3 (43-40)
= 41
Month 7:
Ft = 39 + .3 (44-39)
= 41
Month 11:
Ft = 41 + .3 (39-41)
= 40
Month 8:
Ft = 41 + .3 (42-41)
= 41
Month 12:
Ft = 40 + .3 (40-40)
= 40
Month 9:
Ft = 41 + .3 (39-41)
= 40
MAD
MSE
= 16 / 11
= 245 / 11
= 1.45
= 23.09
Graph (Four-Month
Moving Average)
Demand
30% Forecast
Problem 7
The ALCOR Department Store has recorded the following numbers of customers
complaints each month.
Month
Complaints
January
60
February
48
March
55
April
50
MONTH
COMPLAINTS
3-MONTH WEIGHTED
MOVING AVERAGE
FORECAST
January
60
February
48
60
March
55
48
April
May
June
50
55
54
51
53
55
50
55
July
53
53
August
53
53
Solution
April
60(1) + 48(2) + 55(3) / 6 = 54
May
48(1) + 55(2) + 50(3) / 6 = 51
June
55(1) + 50(2) + 55(3) / 6 = 53
July
50(1) + 55(2) + 53(3) / 6 = 53
August
55(1) + 53(2) + 53(3) / 6 = 53
END