GHACOF24

Food Security Outlook Scenarios

(2009/10)

Gideon Galu, Andrew Odero & Network Partners

ggalu@fews.net & aodero@fews.net

http://www.fews.net
Food Security Outlook Forum (FSOF):

1. To serve as a dynamic decision support tool in

contingency and response planning – RISK
MANAGEMENT

2. Integrate Climatic and Non-Climatic information into

the food security analysis process.

3. Create a Regional Forum for sharing Food Security

issues and concerns (pre- and post-season) among the
early warning and response agencies in the region.
When do we need Contingency Plans?
1.When there is uncertainty and prediction errors;

2.When there are major data gaps and errors;

3.High probability and/or high impact hazards

4.Where there is no access;

5.Before the event, not during or after;

6.When response capacity is uncertain.

“In Kenya, we make contingency plans for these high-probability -

high-impact hazards: Drought, flooding, refugee influxes, diseases
and local natural resource conflicts”
(WFP-Kenya/2003)
FSOF Process:
1. Accurately understanding the current Food Security Situation
(through field assessments) in ALL countries within the region
and the underlying CAUSES.

2. Contextual understanding the Climate Forecasts and their

potential implications to Food Security.

3. Reviewing underlying NON-CLIMATIC factors (civil war,

policies, markets/trade, diseases) and their projected trends.

4. Developing Food Security Outlook Scenario’s (most-likely and

worst-case scenario’s) based on (2) and (3) above and their
impact on livelihoods.
Translating Seasonal Climate Forecasts to
Develop Food Security Scenarios:
Defining the Problem:

Crop losses
Forage and browse availability
Livestock production losses
Drought
Food availability and access (prices)
Water availability
Changes in levels of conflict

Destruction of property and assets

Impacts on infrastructure
Flood Impacts on markets
Disease incidence
Labor markets
 Food Security Situation : Over 17M Food
Insecure
Transitory Causes :
(Mainly Climatic)
Djibouti: 0.15M 1. 4-5 prolonged drought seasons
2. Drought extended into highly
populated areas
Ethiopia 2. Escalating food prices & poor
S.Sudan
(6.2M) terms of trade
(1.3M)
3. Resource-based conflicts
Somalia 4. Trans-boundary Disease outbreaks
Kenya
3.8M (PPR)
Uganda (3.8M+)
(1.15M) Underlying Causes:
(Mainly Non-climatic)
A. Chronic poverty
B. Civil war/insecurity
C. IDP / Returnees
Tanzania
D. Poor marketing mechanisms
(1.2M)
E. Environmental degradation
G. Constrained income opportunities
due to Global Economic Crisis…
Source (Sept. 2009): www.fews.net
 Emerging Drought Trends in Densely
Populated.
(Rapid increase in food insecure population)

1 Feb. – 22 Aug. 2009 Population distribution proxies - 2007 (Landscan data)

Rainfall failure in parts of agric areas, which are also densely populated areas…
 Emerging Drought Trends…
(Drought-axis in the Great Rift Valley areas & surrounding)
2007 Landscan

Drought in the Great Rift Valley &

Surrounding areas
 2009 Consensus Seasonal Forecast
1. Moderate – Mild El-Nino event
Sept. – Dec. 2009
2. Analog years (1982, 2002 & 2004)

3. Timely onset

4. Rains to intensify in November

extend into early 2010

5. Need to monitor closely the

developing situation, especially the
Indian & Atlantic Oceans

6. Normal-to-above Normal in short-

rains dependant & also drought
affected areas…

7. Relatively high confidence levels on

the Sept.-Dec. rainfall season due to
Source: ICPAC the El-Nino signal..
 Seasonal Rainfall
Forecasting and
Interpretation (FIT)
Most-likely scenario

Translating prob.
into rainfall anomalies
 2009 Forecast Interpretation:
(Beneficial rains with Flood risks….)
Maize/Sorghum crop > 300mm Floods(?) > 500mm

Areas with increased

probabilities of attaining the
given thresholds
 Recent past El-Nino Impacts & Analogue Year(s)
Moderate (2006) to Mild (2002) El-Nino

Extreme (1997/98) Moderate (2006/7) Mild (2002/3)

Rainfall Deficits Enhanced rainfall

 2009 Forecast Implications:
Timely Onset – rains spilling into Early 2010

2002/3 2006/7

1. Timely onset for most of the short-rains dependant areas

2. Some delays over Rift Valley areas and parts of eastern sector
3. Extended length of the crop growing season (early 2010)
2009 Forecast Implications:

2002/3 2006/7

1. Favorable prospects for agric

production …

2. Rains expected to extend into early

2004/5 2010..
Adverse El-Nino Impacts on Floods Risk
(Areas to watch for potential flood risks)

2006/7 Floods

1. Recharge of major Dams..

2. Transportation is likely to be affected in
flood prone areas.. could also constrain
relief supplies…
3. Environmental degradation a threat…
Adverse El-Nino Impacts on Floods, RVF & Malaria
(RVF and Malaria Risks)

RVF threat exists but with relatively less impact than in 2006/7 El-Nino event
 Rain-fed Agriculture ≠ Food Security
Food Security = fn (Availability, Accessibility, Utilization)

Opportunities Challenges/Risks
(How to?)
1. Rainfall ≥ Average 1. Maximize Agric
prod
2. Extended Length 2. Reduce post-
of Growing Period
harvest losses
3. Ensure price
stability
4. Flooding &
Diseases (RVR)
As usual, they will be drought after the El-Nino event……………
 2009/10 Projected Food Security Scenario’s
Current: Jul. – Sept. 2009
Mid - term: Sept. - Dec. 2009(?)
(TBD)
COF24 Implications :
(Mainly Climatic)
1. Gradual recovery of Food Long - term: Jan. - March. 2010
Security status in marginal agric
& pastoral areas.
2. Recharge of water resources
& Hydro-power
3. Improving Terms of Trade in
Pastoral Areas..
4. Flood risk
5. Trans-boundary Disease
outbreaks (RVF) & Malaria
6. Reduced resource-based
conflicts
Underlying Causes:
(Mainly Non-climatic)
A. Environmental degradation
B. Chronic poverty Gradual improvement…?,
C. Civil war/insecurity Depending on Govt. &
D. IDP / Returnees partners interventions
E. Global recession… response to the forecast
rains..
 Current FS Situation: Feb. 2010
Food Security Conditions, Oct 2009 Food Security Conditions, Feb 2010

Modest improvement in food security since 2009.

Attributed largely to the El Nino rains especially in
the pastoral areas and marginal agricultural areas
in the eastern sector
http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/
http://www.fews.net
Thanks…