Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Statistics For Business and Economics: Bab 8
Statistics For Business and Economics: Bab 8
JOHN S. LOUCKS
St. Edwards University
Chapter 8
Interval Estimation
[---------------------
x
x
---------------------]
[--------------------- x ---------------------]
[--------------------- x ---------------------]
Sampling Error
Probability Statements about the Sampling
Error
Constructing an Interval Estimate:
Large-Sample Case with Known
Calculating an Interval Estimate:
Large-Sample Case with Unknown
Sampling Error
Probability Statements
About the Sampling Error
Probability Statements
About the Sampling Error
Precision Statement
There is a 1 - probability that the value of
a
sample mean will provide a sampling
errorzof
or less.
/2 x
Sampling
distribution
of x
/2
1 - of all
x values
/2
x
With Known
x z /2
where: x
is the sample mean
1 - is the confidence coefficient
z/2 is the z value providing an area of
standard
With Unknown
In most applications the value of the
population standard deviation is unknown. We
simply use the value of the sample standard
deviation, s, as the point estimate of the
population standard deviation.
s
x z /2
Precision Statement
There is a .95 probability that the value of a
sample mean for National Discount will provide
a sampling error of $1,470 or less.
determined as follows:
x sample means that can be
95% of the
observed are within + 1.96
of the
population mean .
x
x s
4,500
750
n
36
If
, then 1.96
= 1,470.
10
11
t Distribution
13
Interval Estimate
x t /2
s
n
14
t Value
At 95% confidence, 1 - = .95, = .05, and /2
= .025.
t.025 is based on n - 1 = 10 - 1 = 9 degrees of
freedom.
Degrees
Area in Upper Tail
InFreedom
the t distribution
we see that
=
of
.10
.05table .025
.01 t.025.005
2.262.
.
.
.
.
.
.
7
1.415
1.895
2.365
2.998
3.499
1.397
1.860
2.306
2.896
3.355
1.383
1.833
2.262
2.821
3.250
10
1.372
.
1.812
.
2.228
.
2.764
.
3.169
.
16
x t.025
550 2.262
or
s
n
60
10
550 + 42.92
$507.08 to $592.92
We have
E z /2
n
Solving for n we have
( z / 2 ) 2 2
n
E2
18
19
z /2
500
n
At 95% confidence, z.025 = 1.96.
Recall that = 4,500.
Solving for n we have
(1.96)2(4,500)2
n
311.17
2
(500)
We need to sample 312 to reach a desired
precision of
+ $500 at 95% confidence.
20
Interval Estimation
of a Population Proportion
Interval Estimate
p z / 2
where:
p (1 p )
n
of
21
where:
1.96
n = 500,
p
p (1 p )
n
= 220/500 = .44,
z/2 =
. 44 (1. 44 )
. 44 1. 96
500
.44 + .0435
PSI is 95% confident that the proportion of all
voters
that favors the candidate is between .3965
and .4835.
23
( z / 2 ) 2 p (1 p )
n
E2
24
25
1817
2
2
E
(. 03)
Note: We used .44 as the best estimate of p in
the
above expression. If no information is
available
about p, then .5 is often assumed because it
provides
the highest possible sample size. If we had
used
p = .5, the recommended n would have been
26
1843.
End of Chapter 8
27