Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Decision Making With Ahp
Decision Making With Ahp
Decision Making With Ahp
WITH AHP
1-1
1-2
Maximize profits
Satisfy customer demands
Maximize employee satisfaction
Satisfy shareholders
Minimize costs of production
Satisfy government regulations
Minimize taxes
Maximize bonuses
1-3
Fundamental
Requirements of a Decision Theory
1-9
1-11
1-12
1-14
1-15
1-16
1-17
Decision Making
We need to prioritize both tangible and intangible criteria:
In most decisions, intangibles such as
political factors and
social factors
take precedence over tangibles such as
economic factors and
technical factors
It is not the precision of measurement on a particular factor
that determines the validity of a decision, but the importance
we attach to the factors involved.
How do we assign importance to all the factors and synthesize
this diverse information to make the best decision?
1-20
3001
208
1870
Total 5079
1-22
100
Bad for
comfort
Good for
comfort
Bad for
preserving food
Good for
preserving food
Temperature
1-26
Bad for
comfort
OBJECTIVITY!?
Bias in upbring: objectivity is agreed upon subjectivity.
We interpret and shape the world in our own image. We
pass it along as fact. In the end it is all obsoleted by the
next generation.
Logic breaks down: Russell-Whitehead Principia;
Gdels Undecidability Proof.
Intuition breaks down: circle around
earth; milk and coffee.
How do we manage?
1-27
Making a Decision
Widget B is cheaper than Widget A
Widget A is better than Widget B
1-28
B
V
A
B
V
A
Suppose the criteria are preferred in the order shown and the
cars are preferred as shown for each criterion. Which car
should be chosen? It is desirable to know the strengths of
preferences for tradeoffs.
1-29
Background on AHP
To understand the world we assume that:
We can describe it
We can define relations between
its parts and
We can apply judgment to relate the
parts according to
a goal or purpose that we
have in mind.
1-30
Conflicts
Options
Objectives
Political
Factors
Judgments
Scenarios
Criteria
Priorities
AHP
Allocations
Weights
Preference Ratios
1-31
1-32
TYPES OF DECISIONS
There are at least three types of decisions
Choosing a single best alternative. This includes Zero/One,
Yes/No types of decisions. If there are several alternatives, one
looks for the best one among them.
Ranking alternatives on an ordinal or interval scale without
regard to proportionality among them. It is difficult to use
this information to allocate resources.
Ranking alternatives proportionately on a ratio scale This
makes it possible to allocate resources and choose a best
portfolio. This is the Analytic Hierarchy Process approach and
includes the others.
1-33
GOAL
CRITERIA
ALTERNATIVES
1-34
1-35
Relative Measurement
In relative measurement a preference
judgment is expressed on each pair of
elements with respect to a common property
they share.
In practice this means that a pair of elements
in a level of the hierarchy are compared with
respect to parent elements to which they relate
in the level above.
1-36
1-37
Comparison Matrix
Given:
Apple A
Apple B
Apple C
Apple A
Apple B
Apple C
Apple A
S1/S1
S1/S2
S1/S3
Apple B
S2 / S1
S2 / S2
S2 / S3
S3 / S1
S3 / S2
Apple C
1-39
S3 / S3
Pairwise Comparisons
Size
Apple A
Size
Comparison
Apple A
Apple B
Apple B
Apple C
Apple C
Resulting
Priority
Eigenvector
Relative Size
of Apple
Apple A
6/10
Apple B
1/2
3/10
Apple C
1/6
1/3
1/10
Consistency
In this example Apple B is 3 times larger than Apple C. We can
obtain this value directly from the comparisons of Apple A
with Apples B & C as 6/2 = 3. But if we were to use judgment
we may have guessed it as 4. In that case we would have been
inconsistent.
Now guessing it as 4 is not as bad as guessing it as 5 or more.
The farther we are from the true value the more inconsistent
we are. The AHP provides a theory for checking the
inconsistency throughout the matrix and allowing a certain
level of overall inconsistency but not more.
1-41
Consistency cont.
1-42
Consistency cont.
With the AHP We Can Allow Some
Inconsistency
Because the world of experience is vast and we deal with it in pieces according to
whatever goals concern us at the time, our judgments can never be perfectly
precise.
It may be impossible to make a consistent set of judgments on some pieces that
make them fit exactly with another consistent set of judgments on other related
pieces. So we may neither be able to be perfectly consistent nor want to be.
We must allow for a modicum of inconsistency.
1-43
Consistency cont.
How Much Inconsistency to Tolerate?
Inconsistency arises from the need for redundancy.
Redundancy improves the validity of the information about the real world.
Inconsistency is important for modifying our consistent understanding, but it must not be too large
to make information seem chaotic.
Yet inconsistency cannot be negligible; otherwise, we would be like robots unable to change our
minds.
Mathematically the measurement of consistency should allow for inconsistency of no more than
one order of magnitude smaller than consistency. Thus, an inconsistency of no more than 10%
can be tolerated.
This would allow variations in the measurement of the elements being compared without
destroying their identity.
As a result the number of elements compared must be small, i.e. seven plus or minus two. Being
homogeneous they would then each receive about ten to 15 percent of the total relative value in
the vector of priorities.
A small inconsistency would change that value by a small amount and their true relative value
would still be sufficiently large to preserve that value.
Note that if the number of elements in a comparison is large, for example 100, each would receive
a 1% relative value and the small inconsistency of 1% in its measurement would change its value
to 2% which is far from its true value of 1%.
1-44
Comparison of Intangibles
The same procedure as we use for size can be used to
compare things with intangible properties. For example,
we could also compare the apples for:
TASTE
AROMA
RIPENESS
1-45
1-46
Goal
Satisfaction with School
Learning
School
A
Friends
School
Life
Vocational
Training
School
B
1-47
College
Prep.
Music
Classes
School
C
1-48
Equal importance
Extreme importance
2,4,6,
8
Intermediate values
Use Reciprocals for Inverse Comparisons
1-49
Very Slight
1.3
Moderate
1.5
Strong
1.7
Very Strong
1.9
Extreme
A more effective way for comparing elements that are very close is
to include them in the comparison of a larger set with which they are
homogeneous and allow for their difference when comparing them
with other elements. The answers are invariably very good.
1-50
Consumption
in the U.S.
Coffee
Coffee
Wine
Tea
Beer
Sodas
Milk
Water
1/2
1/3
1/9
1/9
1/9
1/9
1/3
1/4
1/3
1/9
1/2
1/3
1/2
1/3
Wine
Tea
Beer
Sodas
Milk
Water
The derived scale based on the judgments in the matrix is:
Coffee Wine
Tea
Beer
Sodas
Milk
Water
.177
.019
.042
.116
.190
.129
.327
with a consistency ratio of .022.
The actual consumption (from statistical sources) is:
.180
.010
.040
.121051
.180
.140
.330
A: Steak
1/2
1/4
1/3
1/4
1/3
1/3
1/5
1/9
1/2
1/6
1/3
1/5
B: Potatoes
C: Apples
D: Soybean
E: Whole
Wheat
Bread
F: Tasty
Cake
The resulting derived scale and the actual values are shown below:
G: Fish
Steak Potatoes Apples Soybean W. Bread
T. Cake
.031
.030
.065
.124
.078
Derived .345
.370
.040
.000
.070
.110
.090
Actual
(Derived scale has a consistency ratio of .028.)
1-52
Fish
.328
.320
Medium
High
Equal
(low low)
Between
(medium low)
Moderate
(high low)
Between
(low medium)
Strong
(medium medium)
Between
(high medium)
Very strong
(low high)
Between
(medium high)
Extreme
(high high)
1-53
1-54
0.05
0.47
0.10
0.24
0.15
1-55
School Selection
Learning
L
1
F
4
SL
3
VT
1
CP
3
MC Weights
4
.32
Friends
1/4
1/5
.14
School Life
1/3 1/7
1/5
1/5
1/6
.03
1/3
1/3
.13
College Prep.
1/3
.24
Music Classes
1/4
Vocational Trng.
1-56
1/3
.14
1/3
Friends
Priorities
1/3 1/2
Priorities
.16
.33
.45
.59
.33
1/5
1/5
.09
.25
.33
.46
College Prep.
School Life
Priorities
Music Classes
Priorities
Priorities
.77
1/2
.25
.69
1/9
1/5
.05
.50
1/6
1/3
.09
1/7
.17
1/2
.25
1/4
.22
1-57
150
350
.269
300
50
350
.269
500
100
600
.462
200/1000
150/300
300/1000
50/300
500/1000
100/300
.269
sums
.269
.462
.32
L
.14
F
.03
SL
.13
VT
.24
CP
.14
MC
Composite
Impact of
Schools
.16
.33
.45
.77
.25
.69
.37
.59
.33
.09
.05
.50
.09
.38
.25
.33
.46
.17
.25
.22
.25
1-59
Distributive Mode
(Normalization: Dividing each
entry by the total in its column)
.32
.14
.03
.13
.24
.14
.32
Composite
L
SL
VT
.03
L
CP
MC
SL
.24
VT
.14
CP
.16
.33
.45
.77
.25
.69
.59
.33
.09
.05
.50
.09
.25
.33
.46
.17
.25
.22
.37
.38
.25
Composite Normal-
MC Impact of
ized
Schools
A
.27
.34
.98
.50
.65
1
.39
.20
.07
.50
.13
.73
.42
1
.27
.22
.50
.32
.50
Schools
.13
Impact
of
comprehensive
.14
1-60
1-61
Absolute Measurement
In absolute measurement the properties of an element are
compared or rated against a standard.
In this method an element is compared against an ideal
property; i.e. a memory of that property. Generally, only
the final alternatives of choice are measured absolutely.
For example, students applying for admission are rated on
grades, letters of recommendation and standardized test
scores. A students final rating is the weighted sum of the
ratings on the various criteria.
1-62
Education
(0.200)
Experience
(0.048)
Outstanding
(0.59) .59/.59>15
=1 years
(0.48)
.48/.48 = 1 Doctorate
(0.61)
Very Good
(0.28) .28/.48 = .58
Good
(0.16)
.16/.48 = .33
Below Avg.
(0.05) .05/.48 = .10
Masters
(0.25).25/.59 =.43
Bachelor
(0.11)
etc.
High School
(0.05)
Quality
(0.360)
Excellent (0.64) Enthused
Attitude
(0.082)
Leadership
(0.235)
Outstanding
(0.63)
(0.54)
6-15 years
(0.25)
Very Good
(0.21)
Above Avg.
(0.23)
Above Avg.
(0.23)
3-5 years
(0.10)
Good
(0.11)
Average
(0.10)
Average
(0.14)
1-2
years
(0.04)
Poor
(0.04)
Negative
(0.04)
Below Avg.
(0.06)
Unsatisfactory
(0.03) .03/.48 = .06
Unsatisfactory
(0.03)
1-63
Peters, T.
Hayat, F.
Becker, L.
Adams, V.
Kesselman, S.
Kelly, S.
Joseph, M.
Tobias, K.
Washington, S.
OShea, K.
Williams, E.
Golden, B.
Dependability
0.0746
Education
0.2004
Experience
0.0482
Quality
0.3604
Attitude
0.0816
Outstand
Outstand
Outstand
Outstand
Good
Good
Blw Avg.
Outstand
V. Good
Outstand
Outstand
V. Good
Doctorate
Masters
Masters
Bachelor
Bachelor
Bachelor
Hi School
Masters
Masters
Hi School
Masters
Bachelor
>15 years
>15 years
>15 years
6-15 years
1-2 years
3-5 years
3-5 years
3-5 years
3-5 years
>15 years
1-2 years
.15 years
Excellent
Excellent
V. Good
Excellent
Excellent
Excellent
Excellent
V. Good
V. Good
V. Good
V. Good
V. Good
Enthused
Enthused
Enthused
Abv. Avg.
Enthused
Average
Average
Enthused
Enthused
Enthused
Abv. Avg.
Average
Leadership
0.2348
Outstand
Abv. Avg.
Outstand
Average
Average
Average
Average
Abv. Avg.
Abv. Avg.
Average
Average
Abv. Avg.
Total
1.000
0.752
0.641
0.580
0.564
0.517
0.467
0.466
0.435
0.397
0.368
0.354
Normalized
0.153
0.115
0.098
0.089
0.086
0.079
0.071
0.071
0.066
0.061
0.056
0.054
The total score is the sum of the weighted scores of the ratings. The
money for raises is allocated according to the normalized total score. In
practice different jobs need different hierarchies.
1-64
Cost
Climate
Culture
0.392
0.116
0.175
0.317
VeryGood
0.554
*(1.000)
Abv Avg
0.267
(0.482)
Average
0.133
(0.241)
Below Av
0.046
(0.084)
Expensiv
0.059
(0.119)
Good
0.624
(1.000)
Mod Exp
Fair
0.108
(0.218)
Not Exp
0.340
(0.687)
Cheap
0.494
(1.000)
0.303
(0.485)
Poor
0.073
(0.118)
1-65
Excelnt
0.735
(1.000)
Avg
0.207
(0.281)
Lacking
0.058
(0.079)
0.541
0.446
0.388
0.294
0.294
0.478
0.605
0.666
0.695
0.284
Ideal City
San Fran
Philadelphia
New York
Boston
Miami
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Los Angeles
Seattle
VERYGOOD
ABV AVG
AVERAGE
ABV AVG
ABV AVG
ABV AVG
AVERAGE
ABV AVG
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
CHEAP
EXPENSIV
NOT EXP
EXPENSIV
EXPENSIV
MOD EXP
EXPENSIV
MOD EXP
MOD EXP
MOD EXP
NOT EXP
GOOD
GOOD
GOOD
FAIR
POOR
GOOD
POOR
FAIR
FAIR
FAIR
POOR
EXCELNT
EXCELNT
EXCELNT
EXCELNT
EXCELNT
AVG
EXCELNT
AVG
AVG
AVG
AVG
Ideal City
San Fran
Philadelphia
New York
Boston
Miami
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Los Angeles
Seattle
VERYGOOD
ABV AVG
AVERAGE
ABV AVG
ABV AVG
ABV AVG
AVERAGE
ABV AVG
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
CHEAP
GOOD
EXPENSIV GOOD
NOT EXP
GOOD
EXPENSIV FAIR
EXPENSIV POOR
MOD EXP
GOOD
EXPENSIV POOR
MOD EXP
FAIR
MOD EXP FAIR
MOD EXP FAIR
NOT EXP
POOR
EXCELNT
EXCELNT
EXCELNT
EXCELNT
EXCELNT
AVG
EXCELNT
AVG
AVG
AVG
AVG
1.000
0.695
0.666
0.605
0.541
0.478
0.446
0.388
0.294
0.294
0.284
Numerical Intensities; Ideal city gets full priority for each criterion
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1.000
0.695
0.666
0.605
0.541
0.478
0.446
0.388
0.294
0.294
0.284
1 Ideal City
1.000
2 San Fran
0.695
3 Philadelphia
0.666
4 New York
5 Boston
0.541
6 Miami
0.478
7 Chicago
0.446
8 Dallas
0.388
9 Denver
0.294
10 Los Angeles
0.294
11 Seattle
0.284
1-66
0.3922
0.1156
0.1749
0.3173
0.1889
0.0137
0.1749
0.3173
0.0945
0.0795
0.1749
0.3173
0.1889
0.1889
0.0137
0.0137
0.0849
0.0206
0.3173
0.3173
0.1889
0.0252
0.1749
0.0892
0.0945
0.0137
0.0206
0.3173
0.1889
0.0252
0.0849
0.0892
0.0945
0.0252
0.0849
0.0892
0.0945
0.0252
0.0849
0.0892
0.0945
0.0795
0.0206
0.0892
0.605
Benchmark Measurement
Instead of using intensities, we can compare all the alternatives
with respect to well known alternatives called benchmarks that
are different and range from the best to the worst for each
criterion. For example, with respect to dependability we can put
three well known individuals who are respectively, extremely
dependable, moderately dependable and undependable. With
respect to leadership we may use five such individuals and so
on. We then pairwise compare each individual with these
benchmarks to obtain a priority. Here again, in the end we can
use the distributive or ideal modes. The benchmarks are
compared only once. However, new judgments are needed for
each alternative when it is compared with them. For more work,
one obtains greater accuracy in the final priorities. This process
is known as Benchmark Measurement.
1-67
Goal
Criteria
Technical
SubCriteria
Ratings
(for each
SubCriterion)
R gulatory Compliance
e velopment Cost
De
Prob. of Tech. Success
R&D and Eng. Resources
R velopment Time
Detent Position
Pa
Outstanding
Above Average
Average
Below Average
P1
Marketing
Financial
Manufacture
C pability to Market
a
Market Growth
M
Market Share
Market Potential
stomer Acceptance
Cu
NPV
Capital Invest
ROI
Unit Cost
C pability to Manufacture
a
Facility/Equp. Req.
fety
Sa
Outstanding
Above Average
Average
Below Average
Outstanding
Above Average
Average
Below Average
Outstanding
Above Average
Average
Below Average
.....
P2
P99
This approach for R&D project selection has been and is currently being used by a hypothetical firm,
Novatech, Inc., which manufacturers and sells a line of fertilizers.
(see Golden, G.L. (eds), Analytic Hierarchy Process - Applications and studies, 1989, Springer-Verlag. p. 82-99.)
1-68
Focus:
Decision
Criteria:
Financial
Political
Decision
Makers:
Congress
Dept. of Interior
Factors:
Groups
Affected:
Objectives:
Alternatives:
Clout
Legal Position
Farmers
Irrigation
Envt Protection
Courts
Potential
Financial
Loss
Recreationists
Flood Control
State
1-69
Lobbies
Archeological
Problems
Irreversibility
of the Envt
Power Users
Flat Dam
Half-Full Dam
Social Protection
Environmentalists
White Dam
Full Dam
Current
Financial
Resources
Cheap Power
Protect
Environment
Independence
Psychological
Communication
Growth
Challenge
Physical
Food
Commitment
Socio-Cultural
Sociability
Shelter
Philosophical
World View
Housekeeping
Sense of Beauty
& Intelligence
Theology
Sex
Understanding
Security
Affection
CASE 1:
Marry
Not Marry
Loyalty
CASE 2:
Campbell
Graham
McGuire
1-70
Intelligence
Aesthetic
Finance
Temper
Humor
Faucet
TIME HORIZON:
Technology
FORCES:
POLICIES
OBJECTIVES
ACTORS:
Short-Term
Mid-Term
Economy
Long-Ter m
International
Religion
Internal
Nationalities
Affairs
Communist
Party
Hard Liners
Mikhail
Gorbachev
People of
Russia
People of
Baltic
Republics
People of
C. Asia
Republics
Politics
People of
Caucacus
Republics
Boris
Yeltzin
Western
World
Countries
O
Outsiders
Insiders
A.1
A.2
A.3
Policies
SCENARIOS:
B.1
B.2
B.3
B.4
B.5
B.6
Policies
C.1
C.2
D.1
D.2
D.3
D.4
C.3
Policies
Rest of
World
E.1
E.2
D.5
Policies
Policies
Power Sharing
(.46)
1-71
F.1
F.2
G.1
G.2
F.3
G.3
Policies
Policies
H.1
H.2
H.3
H.4
H.5
H.6
Policies
Violent Break-up
Civil Wars Terrorism
Brutal Repression
(.20)
I.1
I.2
I.3
I.4
Policies
Yes .80
No .20
Yes .60
No .40
Yes 0.729
Yes .50
No .50
No 0.271
COSTS
$ Billion Tariffs make Chinese products
more expensive (0.094)
Yes .70
No .30
Retaliation
(0.280)
Yes .90
No .10
Yes 0.787
Yes .75
No .25
No 0.213
RISKS
Long Term negative competition
(0.683)
Yes .70
No .30
Yes .30
No .70
Yes 0.597
Result:
Benefits
Costs x Risks
YES
.729
.787 x .597
Yes .50
No .50
No 0.403
= 1.55
1-72
NO
.271
.213 x .403
= 3.16
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. . . . .. .
.. . ... . .. ... . . .
.
.
..
Benefits/Costs*Risks
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 6
18 30
42
54
66
78
90
102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186 198 210
Experiments
1-73
No
Yes
PNTR:
0.59
Amend
NTR:0.28
Annual
Extension:0.13
Increased
Employment in US
0.0
7
PNTR:0
.54
Amend
NTR:0.30
Annual 0.12
Annual Extension:
Extension:0.16
Costs to US
Loss of US Access
to China's Market
0.83
PNTR:0.10
Amend NTR:0.30
Annual Extension:0.60
PNTR:0.57
Amend NTR:0.29
Annual Extension:0.14
1-74
Benefits to Lower
Income Consumers
0.0
5
PNTR:0
.58
Amend
NTR:0.31
Annual
Extension:0.11
Opportunities
for US
Impro
Promote
ve
Democracy
US-Sino
0.2
Relations
3
0.5
5
PNTR:0
PNTR:0
.65
.57
Amend
Amend
NTR:0.23
NTR:0.33
Annual
Annual
Opportunities Synthesis:
PNTR: 0.61
Extension:0.12
Extension:0.10
Improve
Environment
0.1
4
PNTR:0
PNTR:0
.57
.54
Amend
Amend
NTR:0.29
NTR:0.30
Annual
Annual
Amend NTR: 0.27
Annual Extension: 0.12
Extension:0.14
Extension:0.16
Risks for US
Loss of Trade as
Leverage over Other Issues
0.43
China-US Conflict
0.25
PNTR:0.59
Amend NTR:0.36
Annual Extension:0.05
PNTR:0.09
Amend NTR:0.29
Amend NTR:0.62
PNTR:0.09
Amend NTR:0.28
Annual Extension:0.63
PNTR:0.09
Amend NTR:0.24
Annual Extension:0.67
1-75
Hierarchy
Economic: 0.56
-Growth (0.33)
-Equity (0.67)
Security: 0.32
-Regional Security (0.09)
-Non-Proliferation (0.24)
-Threat to US (0.67)
Political:0.1
2
-Domestic
Constituencies
(0.80)
-American Values
(0.20)
Priority Ratings for the Importance of Benefits, Costs, Opportunities, and Risks
Economi
Growth (0.19)
c
Equity (0.37)
(0.56)
Regional (0.03)
Security Non-Proliferation
(0.32)
Threat to US(0.21)
Political (0.08)
Constituencies (0.1)
American Values
(0.12)
Priorities
(0.02)
Benefits
High
Medium
Low
Medium
High
High
Very Low
0.25
Costs
Very Low
High
Medium
Medium
Very High
Very High
Low
0.31
Opportunities
Medium
Low
Medium
High
High
Medium
Low
0.20
Risks
Very Low
Low
High
High
Very High
High
Medium
0.24
Very High (0.42), High (0.26), Medium (0.16), Low (0.1), Very Low (0.06)
1-76
C osts to U
S (0.31)
O pportunities
for U S (0.20 )
Priorities
PNTR
0.59
(0.44)
Im proved R ule of L aw
(0.110)
Im proved R u le of L
aw
C hinas Prom ise to R e spect U
(0.26)
S Provisions (0.18)
Increased E m ploym ent in U
S (0.07)
B enefits to L ow er Incom
e
L oss of U S A ccess to C
C o nsu m er (0.05)
hinas
W orkers in
Som
e S ectors of U
M arket (0.83)
S E conom y M ay Lose Jobs
(0.17)
Im prov e H um an and
R isks for U
S (0.24)
A m end
A nnual
NT R
E xtension
0.58
0.31
0.11
0.65
0.23
0.12
0.54
0.30
0.16
0.58
0.31
0.11
0.67
0.22
0.11
0.14
0.28
0.58
0.65
0.23
0.12
Prom ote D em o
cracy
Im prove E nvironm ent
0.57
0.33
0.10
0.57
0.29
0.14
Im prove H um an and
0.54
0.30
0.16
0.07
0.11
0.82
0.69
0.21
0.10
0.68
0.22
0.10
0.66
0.25
0.09
0.55
0.24
0.21
(0.065)
(0.046)
(0.028)
(0.07)
(0.017)
F inal A nalysis
1-77
0.28
0.13
Sensitivity Analyses
All possible combinations of increasing and decreasing Benefits, Costs,
Opportunities, and Risks by 5% were made. It was found that the ranks of the
alternatives remained the same and their priorities did not change up and
down by more than 4 %.
Then the the criteria weights where perturbed up and down for the fixed derived
priorities of the benefits, costs, opportunities, and risks. It was found that the
ranks of the alternative remained stable except when the two criteria Workers
in Some Sectors of US Economy May Lose Jobs and Loss of Trade as
Leverage over Other Issues were either each increased by more than 4 times its
existing priority or if their priorities were jointly increased by 3 times their
existing values. Both of these perturbations seem extreme and unlikely.
Our conclusion was that it is in the best interest of the United States to grant China
PNTR status.
1-78
Size of
Federal
Deficit
.032
Bank of
Japan
Monetary
Policy
.097
Tighter
Forward Exchange
Rate Biases
.023
Forward
Rate
Premium/
Discount
.007
Tighter
Contract
.191
.002
Steady
No Chng.
.009
Steady
.027
Medium
.002
.082
Easier
.021
Expand
.021
Easier
.063
Low
.002
.007
High
.002
Official Exchange
Market Intervention
.164
Size/Direction of U.S.
Current Account
Balance .252
Past Behavior of
Exchange Rate
.035
Size of
Forward
Rate
Differential
.016
Consistent
Erratic
Relative
Inflation
Rates
Relative
Real
Growth
Relative
Political
Stability
.137
.027
.019
.008
.032
Size of
Deficit
or
Surplus
.032
Premium
Strong
More
More
Large
Decr.
High
High
.013
.048
.048
.016
.090
.001
.010
Small
.016
Med.
.001
Med.
.010
Low
.001
Low
.010
.008
Discount
.008
Strong
Higher
.026
.009
Mod.
.100
Mod.
.009
Equal
.006
Equal
.003
Equal
.022
Weak
.011
Weak
.009
Lower
.001
Lower
.003
Less
.006
Anticipated
Changes
Relevant
Irrelevant
.221
.004
.031
No Chng.
.106
Incr.
.025
119.99134.11
134.11148.23
Moderate
Decline
No
Change
Moderate
Increase
0.1330
0.2940
0.2640
0.2280
148.23162.35
162.35
and
above
Sharp
Increase
0.0820
Focus
Criteria
Features
Time Saving
Training
Required
Filing
Screen Capability
Lanier
(.42)
Alternatives
Alternatives
Service
Quality
Syntrex
(.37)
Space
Required
Accuracy
Printer
Speed
Qyx
(.21)
Costs
Focus
Criteria
Quality of Document
Capital
Supplies
Lanier
.54
Service
Syntrex
.28
1-80
Oyx
.18
Training
Lanier
.42 = 0.78
.54
Syntrex
.37 = 1.32
.28
Best Alternative
1-81
Qyx
.21 = 1.17
.18
Dad (0.258)
Parents (0.044)
Mom (0.258)
Adoption (0.112)
Others (0.044)
Male (0.070)
Female (0.070)
Both (0.258)
I.V.F. (0.234)
A.I.H. (0.220)
A.I.D. (0.145)
COSTS
Monetary Cost (0.550)
Evaluation
Treatment
Legal
Mothers Age
Mothers Health
Parents
Child
(0.054)
(0.313)
(0.183)
(0.105)
(0.105)
(0.120)
(0.120)
Adoption (0.154)
I.V.F. (0.212)
A.I.H. (0.087)
A.I.D. (0.104)
RISKS
Father (0.068)
Adoption (0.044)
I.V.F. (0.323)
Mother (0.268)
A.I.H. (0.108)
Baby (0.529)
A.I.D. (0.117)
1-82
Others (0.134)
Adoption
IVF
AIH
AID
Sur. Mom
Sur. B.F.
Benefits
0.112
0.234
0.220
0.145
0.201
0.088
Costs
0.154
0.212
0.087
0.104
0.220
0.223
Risks
0.044
0.323
0.108
0.117
0.277
0.131
1-83
C*R
0.007
0.069
0.009
0.012
0.061
0.029
B/C*R
16.471
3.095
23.404
11.885
3.301
3.014
%
26.920
5.060
38.260
19.460
5.400
4.920
1-85
1-87
.28
Small Green Tomato
.08
Large Lime
.08
.08
.65
Large Lime
.22
.70
Unripe Grapefruit
.22
=1
.65x1=.65
Honeydew
.70
=2.75
.08
.65x2.75=1.79
65x8.75=5.69
.10
.30
Honeydew
.10
.10
5.69x1=5.69
5.69x3=17.07
=1
=8.75 .08
=3
.60
Oblong Watermelon
.10
.60
=6
5.69x6=34.14
Honeydew
Unripe Grapefruit
Oblong Watermelon
1-89
Large Lime
Arithmetic
4 + 3 = mean
7
1/7 1/4 + 1/3
= 7/12
4 x 3 = 3.46
Geometric
mean
1/ 4 x 3 = 1/4 x 1/3 = 1/ 4 x 3 = 1/3.46
That the Geometric Mean is the unique way to combine group judgments is a
theorem in mathematics.
1-90