Implementing Demantra as a

replacement to a legacy
forecasting tool:
A TI Success Story

Presented by Sunday Ichie

Agenda

Introduction
Introduction
Business
Business Environment
Environment
Legacy
Legacy System
System Background
Background
Business
Business Case
Case
Implementation
Implementation Experience
Experience
Case
Case Study
Study Conclusions
Conclusions

Agenda

Introduction
Introduction
Business
Business Environment
Environment
Legacy
Legacy System
System Background
Background
Business
Business Case
Case
Implementation
Implementation Experience
Experience
Case
Case Study
Study Conclusions
Conclusions

Introducing Education Technology (Ed Tech division)

Revenue $500+M
Product lines:
Calculators (graphic, scientific and business)
Classroom learning systems,
Data collection devices & computer software
World leader in products focused on bridging the gap between
education and technology
Works with educators throughout the world in designing and
developing technology for classrooms
A well-managed company and great place to work

Product Lines
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Agenda

Introduction
Introduction
Business
Business Environment
Environment
Legacy
Legacy System
System Background
Background
Business
Business Case
Case
Implementation
Implementation Experience
Experience
Case
Case Study
Study Conclusions
Conclusions

Supply Chain Operations

Suppliers
I
N
V
E
N
T
O
R
Y
Three primary
suppliers (Far East)

Manufacturers
I
N
V
E
N
T
O
R
Y

Distribution
I
N
V
E
N
T
O
R
Y

Sourced from
China

4 global distribution
Centers

Channel

End Customers

I
N
V
E
N
T
O
R
Y
Major Retail chains
and Distributors

Students, teachers,
end users

Supply Chain Overview

Seasonal business (back-to-school)

Forecast at calculator level
Data collection fed into ASCP.
Output is pushed back to MRP (PO, WIP)
Supplier schedules generated for suppliers every two weeks.
Schedules are in 13 weekly buckets and 9 monthly buckets.
Suppliers commit to schedules and are manually input into Apps
Primary Supplier Schedule for 300 Item/Supplier Finished
Goods combinations
Forecast at detail level (Item/Customer/Country) for 1300 Items,
1000 Customers and 23K combinations

Planning Systems Summary

Where we were in 2008
Full Oracle E-Business suite -Live since 1999 -Currently on
11.5.10.2
Modules = Financials, OM, MWA, many CRM modules
Oracle Planning (MRP) 1999
Integration with ASCP 2003
Yantra WMS
Data Warehouse
Legacy Demand Planning: Manugistics -1999

ERP Systems
Oracle ERP Applications (Oracle 11.5.10) Environment
Order Management
Oracle iStore
iPayment
Payables
Financials
Purchasing
Warehouse Management System
WMS (Europe)
Manufacturing
Oracle Mobile Web App (MWA)
Shipping and Logistics
Chainware
Loftware
Vendor Connect
Demand Planning: Manugistics
Oracle Planning: Oracle
Discoverer View and Plus (Reporting)
Data Warehouse (Reporting)
Oracle Single Sign-On (SSO)

Agenda

Introduction
Introduction
Business
Business Environment
Environment
Legacy
Legacy System
System Background
Background
Business
Business Case
Case
Implementation
Implementation Experience
Experience
Case
Case Study
Study Conclusions
Conclusions

Legacy System

Manugistics NetWORKS Demand and Collaborate

(Scheduling and Demand loading)

Statistical forecast engine

Graphical and data table interface
One forecast in and one forecast out
Provides the ability to add an override at a higher level
and allocate that override to the lower levels
3 separate modules equated to long batch processing
and forecast load times

Manugistics Functionality
TM

Strategic Decisions (Annually/Quarterly)

Strategic
Planning

Tactical Decisions (Monthly/Weekly)

Sales Planning

Master Planning

Supplier Planning

Operational Decisions (Daily/Hourly or shorter)

Order
Commitment Order
Commitment

Detailed Scheduling

Transportation
Management

Forecasting Process Flow

Sales &
Marketing
Inputs

Manugistics
Data Warehouse
Oracle ASCP

Reporting:
Finance (Revenue,
Margins, Costs)
SCP (Quantity,
Dates)
ASCP: E2E
Planning

Reporting: Reviews &

Consensus

Manugistics Infrastructure Hardware & Software

Sun Solaris 2.6
SCPO Server V6.02
Oracle RDBMS 8.0.6.0
Transarc DCE V2.0

Database
Server

NT Server 4.0
NetWORKS Collaborate v6.0.1
BEA WebLogic Server v4.0.3
Manugistics ODBC driver for Oracle 8

Application
Server

Client

RPCs
SQL*Net
Databases

MS Windows
DP/EE Client
MDAC Version 2.1

Manugistics System Support Lifecycle

Business
Application

Application
End of Life

Manugistics
Core

De-Supported

Oracle
RDBMS
8.0.6

De-Supported

SCPO
Server
V6.02

De-Supported

NetWORKS
Collaborate
v6.0.1
Manugistics
ODBC driver
for Oracle 8

N/A

Operating
System (OS)

Solaris 2.6

Windows NT 4.0

OS
End of Life

De-Supported

Hardware

Sun Ultra-450

End of Support Life

Windows NT 4.0

De-Supported

De-Supported
HP Server

N/A

Hardware
End of Life

De-Supported

Near End of Support Life

De-Supported

Challenges/ Opportunities
No support for sales and
operations planning

m
Li

ita

ti

s
on

Bu
si
n

Forecast accuracy and

visibility
Collaboration
Lots of manual work
es

Ne

ed

Ope

r at i

ona
lS

ion
grat
Inte

upp
ort

No integration to APS
No integration to ERP

Vendor Support

End-of-Life Manugistics software

End-of-Life Sun Hardware
End-of-Life Solaris OS

No DR poor
business continuity
provision
Legacy system outdated and not
sustainable

Agenda

Introduction
Introduction
Business
Business Environment
Environment
Legacy
Legacy System
System Background
Background
Business
Business Case
Case
Implementation
Implementation Experience
Experience
Case
Case Study
Study Conclusions
Conclusions

Business Case

Forecast Tools in Need of an Overhaul

Integrated Supply Chain Planning environment,
Forecast accuracy and out of stock occurrences
Key applications were in various states of disrepair, and the risk
of affecting business had become very real.
Business faces a risk of the loss of Demand Planning
capabilities due to multiple de-support scenarios.
Did not want to rely on EOL Legacy System to forecast $500
million of revenue?
The executive team could not accept the increasing risk of a
forecast process breakdown, so a decision was made to take
action.

Action Plan

Run maintain
readiness

Manugistics
Infrastructure
Upgrade

Demand
Planning
Discovery

Demantra &
ASCP Projects

Improve current operations

Freeze development
Minimize changes

Infrastructure upgrade
project POC

Vendor Selection

Planning Organization 2008

strategic Projects

Proactive activities to
ensure system availability:
keeping the lights on

Explore feasibility of
upgrading existing
infrastructure: OS and
database versions

Define Selection
Process

Vendor Selection Process

Vendor Research

Engagement

Vendor List

Evaluation

Select Vendor

Conducted vendor research

Internet
Whitepaper
Gartner (Best of Breed, Magic Quadrant)
Past relationships
Solicited peers

Vendor Selection Process

Vendor Research

Engagement

Vendor List

Evaluation

Select Vendor

Met with stakeholders

Engaged selected vendors
Requested RFP

Vendor Selection Process

Vendor Research

Engagement

Product Features

Evaluation

Select Vendor

Vendor Selection Process

Vendor Research

Engagement

Vendor List

Evaluation

Select Vendor

Executed vendor evaluations, based

on the defined approach evaluation
criteria, and scoring. Determined
point totals and published final
scores internally

Vendor Selection Process

Vendor Research

Engagement

Vendor List

Evaluation

Select Vendor

Selected vendor. Notified all other

vendors of status. Made plans for the
execution of the contract, pending
reviews of terms and conditions

Next Steps

Charter a Business Systems Project

Identify Business Sponsor
Set Measurable Objectives
Identify Implementation Partner

CHALLENGES
Years of customizations had resulted in a complex platform, but
one that was familiar and comfortable for its resident users.
Manugistics ,while out of date and in danger of imminent failure,
was getting the job done for the Planners

The biggest challenges associated with this project were userfocused. Convincing the Planners that replacement software
was vital to the success of the company was the first hurdle,
and introducing the selected solutions would require user
preparation

TI Confidential

28

Project Wish List

Provide the ability to load and archive a Salesman, Consensus,

and Statistical forecast
Automated Copy History update actual sales to particular SKUs
Ability to allocate (dis-aggregation) the statistical forecast at a high
level to a lower level using historical data, proportions, and other
appropriate methods
Ability to generate and override multiple forecasts
Provides extensive report writing and graphing capabilities.
Reduction in batch processes and total run times

Agenda

Introduction
Introduction
Business
Business Environment
Environment
Legacy
Legacy System
System Background
Background
Business
Business Case
Case
Implementation
Implementation Experience
Experience
Case
Case Study
Study Conclusions
Conclusions

Project Steps

Upgrade Steps

Evaluate

Identify and
Prioritize
Project Drivers
and Objectives

Project Scope (ASCP)

Upgrade ASCP hardware environment to enable stable support for a
combined ASCP and Demantra environment. The upgrade activity
will bring the environment to the current (Solaris) Operating System
and (Oracle ASCP) patch level
The Project end-state will be a combined Oracle ASCP/Oracle
Demantra server configuration, enabling more native integration
across modules and sharing Data Collection processes between the
ASCP/Demantra and Oracle EBS environments

Project Scope (Demantra): Phase I and II

Phase I: Replace Manugistics with Demantra as the global forecasting
tool for ET Sales forecasting
Enable a more integrated Supply Chain Planning environment, reduce
manual processes, increase forecast accuracy
Enable a Phase 2 project to implement Demantra Real Time Sales &
Operations Planning (RTS&OP)
Phase II: Development processes, reports and the enabling of the
Demantra RTS&OP module to create a robust real time Sales &
Operations Planning process (RTS&OP):
Units and Dollars in one place real time and interactive
Support multiple Forecasts, Forecast Revisions & historical
Forecast Deltas
In short, the ability to see how we have done in the past (accuracy
by units and dollars) and to factor current forecasts by historical
patterns in real time

Evaluate
Demantra is a completely independent product from Oracle ERP
Oracle Demantra Platform of 6 Solutions

Demand Management
Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling
Real Time Sales and Operational Planning
Predictive Trade Planning
Trade Promotion Optimization
Deductions and Settlement Management

Elements of a Demantra Solution

Clients
A Demantra solution includes multiple client machines, each running a
browser to access Demantra

Application Server
Web server and a J2EE application server, which can be on the same
or different machines; for supported software, see the Oracle
Demantra Installation Guide

Database Server
Every Demantra solution includes a database server

Analytical Engine
Oracle provides two different modes for the Analytical Engine:
In PE mode, the engine is suitable for use with Promotion
Effectiveness.
In DP mode, the engine is suitable for use in demand planning
applications.

Upgrade Steps

Plan
ASCP

Upgrade OS for existing hardware

Deploy new ASCP hardware. (Change to multi-node configuration)
ASCP Upgrade vs. Re-Implementation
Source Side Requirements
Replace customizations

Demantra
Retool processes
Take advantage of simplification opportunities in advance of
Implementation
Phasing

Evaluate
Software Requirements
Application Servers
Client Requirements
Licensed Modules

Total Locations

Total SKU

Average SKUs per Location

[50]

[200]

[40]

Hardware configuration

Hardware Architecture
Effective Avg. theoretical
SKU/Location Combination
DB and AS Server
Demantra Analytical engine (windows server)
History Periods
Integration Options
Connectivity Requirements (Performance
Requirement)

Hardware Sizing

Use Oracle Demantra and ASCP Sizer

[20000]

[36]

Future Periods

[18]

Total Periods

[54]

Number of Users

[30]

EBS-Demantra
Configurations Options
1.
2.

EBS 11i10 sources instances + combined 11i10 APS/Demantra

destination instance
EBS 11i10 sources instances + separate 11i10 APS + separate
Demantra destination instance

Data collectors can be used to export the data from Oracle ERP to
Demantra but it still needs to be transformed to fit the needs of
Demantra.

Data Model

Process & Functional Flow

Sales &
Marketing
Inputs

Demantra
Data Warehouse
Oracle ASCP

Reporting:
Finance (Revenue,
Margins, Costs)
SCP (Quantity,
Dates)
ASCP: E2E
Planning

Reporting: Reviews &

Consensus
Current Project Phase is focused on replacing Manugistics with Demantra while
maintaining as much consistency with current processes as feasible.

Demantra Integration with Oracle E-business Suite

and ASCP 11.5.10 (Decentralized Architecture)

Upgrade Steps

Prepare
Took Advantage of Available ASCP and Demantra Content (
https://metalink.oracle.com/)
ASCP
Oracle Advanced Planning and Scheduling Suite (118086.1)
11.5.10 - Oracle Advanced Planning Implementation and Users Guide
(B-10144-08)
List of High Priority Patches for the APS Suite (223026.1)

DEMANTRA
Oracle Demantra Documentation Library" Metalink. (Doc Id:
443969.1)
EBS-Demantra Integration Installation Overview and Diagram
(434991.1)
Demantra SIG group website:
(http://demantrasig.oaug.org/knowledgebase.php?
page=knowledgebase)

Upgrade Steps

Architecture

ASCP Forms/Web
OAS 10g R3 (SOA)
OC4J_Demantra
Sun v880
Oracle 11.5.10
Sun Solaris
DB/CCM 8x32 SFe4900
Forms/Web 3-4x16
SFv440
Login via SSO

Oracle
NET 8

HTTP /
HTTPS

Oracle
NET 8
dblink
dblink

Brower (Client)

Key
Existing Hardware
New Hardware

ASCP DB/CCM &

Demantra DB / Services
Sun V890
Analytical
Engine
HP Server (380G5)

dblink

WMS Yantra
YCS/DCS
Sun Solaris
2x8 SFv880

dblink

Data Warehouse
Sun Solaris
Sun v890

Execute ASCP
1. Install APS - 11.5.10 CU2
2. Apply APS patches
ATP Patch for J -Rollup
Data Collections patches (RUP#24 Patch 6625126)
ASCP Engine/UI Rollup patch #27 - 6444221
3. Create DB link between transaction source (ERP) server and
APS(Advanced Planning & Scheduling) server
4. Setup/configure/verify EBS/APS Profiles
5. Setup Collection Instance
6. Setup collection program
7. Run collection to copy supply chain model from source instance to APS
server
8. Define an ASCP plan and setup plan options (with no constraints)
9. Launch the plan

Execute Demantra
EBS-Demantra Installation
Install OracleAS 10.1.3 Application Server Middle Tier
On the Windows Server
1.
2.
3.

Install Oracle 10g Client

Install Oracle Demantra 7.2
Create and Deploy demantra.war file to Oracle AS 10.1.3 Middle -Run
Create_war.bat (%DEMANTRA_HOME%\Collaborator\demantra)

4.

Run Tamcat WebServer

%DEMANTRA_HOME%\Collaborator\Tomcat\bin\startup.bat

Upgrade EBS/APS 11i (11.5.10.2) applications to J2SE 1.5.0.12

Upgrade EBS/APS 11i (11.5.10.2) applications Dev6i to Patch 18 or
newer
Install Latest ASCP Collections and Engine Patches on EBS/APS
Install EBS Demantra Integration Patch

EBS Demantra Integration Patch

Install on both EBS and APS Applications Instances.
Source ----- 6625126 Data Collections Patch (Rup#24)
5997112 EBS-Demantra Integration Patch
Destination ---------- 5985614 Oracle Demantra Release 7.1.1
6444221 Engine/UI Rollup Patch (Rup#27)
6625126 Data Collections Patch (Rup#24)
5997112 EBS-Demantra Integration Patch
The Integration Patch installs Demantra (MSD_DEM_XXXXXX)
objects into the APS Database / Demand Planning MSD
Schema.

Setup Demantra Profiles

Source Side Profiles
Profile Name
-------------------------------------------------MSD: Enabled Organization for Item Collections
MSD: Two-Level Planning

Destination Side Profiles

Profile Name
-------------------------------------------------MSD_DEM: Currency Code
MSD_DEM: Data Profile for Price Lists
MSD_DEM: Debug Mode
MSD_DEM: Host URL
http://dlek40.itg.ti.com:8888/demantra
MSD_DEM: Schema

Value
--------------MSD_ALL_ORG
2

Value
--------------USD
EBS Price List
N
DEMANTRA

Execute Demantra
Run Download Calendars concurrent program)
The Download Calendars concurrent program downloads
collected manufacturing and fiscal calendars, in Advanced
Supply Chain Planning collections, to Oracle Demantra.
Register APS with OID/single sign-on server to enable single
sign-on (Follow note Register Demantra applications with
OID/single sign-on)
-Run ssoreg
Enable mod_osso (in httpd.conf file)
Protect the required Demantra URLs in mod_osso.conf file
Update mod_osso.conf in
[ORACLE_HOME]\Apache\Apache\conf
Restart Demantra Web Server

Execute
Notes on Testing
Test key business processes, flows and scenarios
Execute multiple testing rounds and budget enough time for
issue resolution

Performed 3 successful test cycles before production cutover

Perform load and volume testing

Time the upgrade process to gauge duration required for
cutover

Upgrade Steps

Maintain
Ensure that the Schema stats are up to date
Gather Schema stats after every forecast run and essentially
before the forecast is run
Forecast versioning : Keep it to the number that is absolutely
necessary
Ensure that Sales_data, mdp_matrix are in their own
tablespaces. Monitor for growth as they are prone to
performance issues
The Web Server must be restarted for most changes to be
available in Oracle Demantra.

Agenda

Introduction
Introduction
Business
Business Environment
Environment
Legacy
Legacy System
System Background
Background
Business
Business Case
Case
Implementation
Implementation Experience
Experience
Case
Case Study
Study Conclusions
Conclusions

Summary a great success, a proven project model

A major hardware platform upgrade and software

rollout in a live operational environment

So what are these other benefits?

Improved
forecasting
and
planning accuracy

So what are these other benefits?

Improved
forecasting
and
planning accuracy

Reduced
out-of-stock
occurrences

So what are these other benefits?

Improved
forecasting
and
planning accuracy

Forecast new items

and/or customers
that have no
sales history

Reduced
out-of-stock
occurrences

So what are these other benefits?

Improved
forecasting
and
planning accuracy

Forecast new items

and/or customers
that have no
sales history

Reduced
out-of-stock
occurrences

Integrated Supply
Chain Planning
environment

So what are these other benefits?

Improved
forecasting
and
planning accuracy

Reduced
out-of-stock
occurrences

Reduced
cycle times
Forecast new items
and/or customers
that have no
sales history

Integrated Supply
Chain Planning
environment

CHALLENGES
Primarily relied on self education and limited functional training
Little documentation on Windows components (no sizing, tuning
or best practice for the engine)
One of the first PMO managed projects meant new processes
Functional
Manugistics expertise was no longer present in Demand Planning
Demand Planning staff home grown
Business Analyst new to Demand Planning
Consulting budget very limited
Used for business requirements development
Process modification deeply extended
Training budget non-existent after economic downturn

TI Confidential

68

CHALLENGES (Technical)
1 Developer attended functional training and was out of country
for significant portion of development cycle
Data Warehouse deemed as key role
Client introduced java incompatibility challenges (Softgrid had
to be deployed)
No eTRM
Outcomes
Native integration not used (Mods & DW emphasis)
Interface seen as intuitive
No training issues with Sales
No lost/reduced cycle
Transition was perceived as a great success

TI Confidential

69

What worked well

The new system!

User group
In general all users accepted the system
1 big team approach
Steering board very supportive
Expertise involved
Weekly project meetings
Roll-out weekends
Project management
Post-implementation support
Restricting project scope

Pending Phase 1 issues

DW Load
Windows Launch of forecast engine
Concurrent Request launch of Workflow
Large list of unexplored features

Bullets Dodged
Tuning
Forecast at customer, not customer site therefore tuning not
as challenging
Limited Phase 1
Limited use of manugistics allowed scaled back phase 1
feature set

Texas Instruments - Education Technology Division (Ed. Tech.)

COMPANY PROFILE

BEFORE DEMANTRA

Revenue $500+M
Product lines: calculators (graphing, financial & scientific),
classroom learning system, data collection devices &
computer software
Three primary suppliers (Far East)
Distribution Centers in Singapore, Australia, Netherlands,
Fort Worth, TX

WITH
AFTERORACLE
DEMANTRA

PLANNING BENCHMARK

Demand Planning
Primary Supplier Schedule for 300 Item/Supplier Finished
Goods combinations
12+ month forecasting horizon
Forecast at detail level (Item/Customer/Country) for 23K
combinations
Supply Chain Planning
8 orgs
1300 items

Benefits

Legacy forecast tool -Manugistics version 2.6

3 separate modules equated to long batch processing and forecast load
times
end-of-life system and de-support (HW & SW)
Forecast accuracy < 70%
Forecast engine run time is 8hrs
No system supported sales and operations planning process

Runs worldwide manufacturing and sales operations using ASCP and

Demantra
Single, global plan for 8 orgs, including worldwide distribution centers and
manufacturing plants
Reduce manual forecasting processes
Using real-time material constrained, multi-org, multi-level ATO order
promising process

Integrated Supply Chain Planning environment

Strongly reduced planning cycle time
Strongly increased forecast accuracy
Enabled sales and operations planning process

In Summary

Demantra is the right direction.

Richer functionality in Sales & Demand management
Excellent performance reduces cycle times
Increased accuracy with advanced forecast tuning
Integrated Supply Chain Planning environment
Make Sure Youre Prepared and Test, Test, Test!

Thank You

Questions?