GLL Adelphos

Fund
GLL Adelphos Fund
Seeking Alpha in an uncertain
market

1
Scope GLL Adelphos
Fund

1. Fund Objective
2. NY Storm Crisis
3. Global Market Outlook
4. Fund Holdings
5. Conclusion

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Fund Objective GLL Adelphos
Fund
Achieve long-term capital growth by investing in a
diversified portfolio of quality funds with proven
track record

Review Macro Environment

Select Asset Classes

s
fund
t
Selec

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Key Development - NY Storm Crisis GLL Adelphos
Fund

 Property values plummet

 Sharp decline in consumer spending
 Loss of tourism revenue
 Agriculture damage

4
Potential Impact of NY Crisis on US Equity Market GLL Adelphos
Fund

S&P 500
10800

10700

10600

10500
-2.9%
10400

10300
Hurricane
Katrina
10200
e... e... e... e... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u... u...
-S 8 -S 6 -S 1 -S 0 -A 6 -A 4 -A 2 -A 8 -A 6 -A 2 -A 0 -A 8 -A 4 -A 2 -A 9 -J 7 -J 5 -J 1 -J 9 -J 5 -J 3 -J
12 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1

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Potential Impact of NY Crisis on financial markets GLL Adelphos
Fund

Assets Impact

US Equity Market

Insurance companies

Materials and construction r m

r t Te
Fixed income
Sh o
Gold and other commodities

6
Macroeconomic Outlook GLL Adelphos
Fund
Market rally in 2009 driven by
massive liquidity

Mixed picture in 2010 with

sluggish recovery in G3
economies and bubble risk in
Asia

Expect policy exits to happen

after a sustained recovery of
G3 economies

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Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
Fund

S&P Emerging Asia

Pacific 93%
S&P 500
68%
FTSE 100
59%
Nikkei 225
43%

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Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
Asia – Strongest in recovery Fund
Attractive
Hot money flows into Asia driven by spreads between Asian and G3 interest rates
and anticipated GDP growth
Market prices largely reflect positive news flow

Key Risk
Asia still dependent on G3
recovery
Double-dip market

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Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
China – The World’s growth engine Fund
Neutral
 Sustain GDP growth at ~8% and CPI below 3% for 2010
 Explosive credit boom: PBOC target new loans at RMB 7–8 trn for 2010

Key Risk
Regulatory risk
Withdraw preferential policies
for property and auto sector
Tightened lending to property
sector in Tier 1 cities

Source: Factset

10
Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
USA – Robust recovery Fund
Attractive
 Money market funds totaled $3.32 trillion in Dec 09 vs. $2.40 trillion under
normal market conditions
 Focus on US Quality Blue chips

Key Risk
Consumer spending fails to rebound due to rising unemployment
Dismal Q1 corporate earnings
NY Storm Crisis results in sharp decline in consumer spending

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Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
Europe – Balancing the union Fund
Unattractive
 One-size-fits-all policy resulted in severe deflation in Greece and Spain
 Government balance sheet repair in progress
 EU Unemployment rate remained at a high 9.8%
 UK valuations o at 12x vs. 11.8x average – Too optimistic

Source: Haver Analytics Source: Consensus Economics Inc.

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Market Outlook GLL Adelphos
Japan – Still in the doldrums Fund
Unattractive
 Deterioration in public finances, deflationary environment and weak consumer
demand
 Equity performance hinges on the weakening of the Yen
 Unattractive valuations with PE 1.7x vs. 1.5x average

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Asset Allocation GLL Adelphos
Fund
  Underweight Neutral Overweight
Equities  Europe, UK China, HK  Indonesia
Japan US Blue Chip
Bonds  Corporate bonds Convertible 
Alternative Assets Commodities

PARVEST Asian Convertible Bond

10%
Fund Invested
Amount SCHRODER Alternative Solutions Co
35%
SCHRODER Alternative Solutions $3,500,000
Commodities Fund ABERDEEN Indonesia Equity Fund
25%
DB Platinum IV CROCI US $3,000,000
ABERDEEN Indonesia Equity Fund $2,500,000
PARVEST Asian Convertible Bond $1,000,000
DB Platinum IV CROCI US
30%

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Bonds: The End of A Bull Market GLL Adelphos
Fund

1982-2009 is the longest bond bull

market ever seen. This will not persist
as interest rate will rise from current
low levels in our investment horizon of
5 years

Graph Source: Traders Narrative

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PARVEST Asian Convertible Bond GLL Adelphos
Fund
Bond Portion: Convertible Portion:
Accounting for the Provide exposure to
defensive aspect possible upside

Convertible Bonds
Best of Both Worlds

Sources: Fund Factsheet

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Commodity Demand Outpace Supply GLL Adelphos
Fund
Rising Affluence + Massive Population
 Growing consumption
Growth of
Emerging Markets Rapid Urbanization & Industrialization
 Infrastructure Needs

Sustainable Economic Recovery

Recovering
Rebuilding of economy will
Economy
spur commodity demand

Loose Monetary Policy + Stimulus

Inflation Inflation
Commodity provides an excellent
hedge Worsening Climate

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Schroder Commodities SGD Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund
Fund Name Emphasis YTD (%) Management Annual
Fee Expense Ratio
Schroder AS Commodities Energy, Agriculture, Metals -3.13% 1.5 2.01%
BNP Paribas Agriculture Agricultural Commodities -6.89% 1.5 3.47%
Indexes -100%
Schroder AS Gold & Metals Precious Metals & -0.27% 1.5 N/A
Industrials Metals-90%
United Commodities Plus Bonds-91.43% -1.51% 1.5 2.98%

Portfolio Exposure Since Launch

Prefer Diversified VS
Theme-Orientated
Commodity Fund

Sources: Fund Factsheet

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Platinum IV CROCI US GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Platinum IV CROCI US GLL Adelphos
Fund

A bet on America

I. World’s largest economy

II. Recovery on the horizon
III. Return to normalization

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Platinum IV CROCI US GLL Adelphos
Fund
US contributes
lion’s share to
World GDP

Source: IMF 2008 – World GDP

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Platinum IV CROCI US GLL Adelphos
Fund
Uptick in manufacturing
activity
Recovering US Economy

 GDP growth of 2.2% and 5.9%

in Q3, Q4 of 2009
 Housing markets showing
signs of stabilization
 Corporate earnings continue
to beat expectations
Source: Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis
Unemployment rate
expected to plateau
Similar movements in
consumer spending

Source: Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis Source: Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis

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Platinum IV CROCI US GLL Adelphos
Fund

 FED expressed reluctance to hike rates

 Obama administration has extended
TARP programme until Oct 2010

 Discussions for gradual

withdrawal of stimulus
 Growing confidence in US
financial system

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund

Why Indonesia?
 Government is keen on receiving foreign
investments
 Rich and diversified natural resources
 Competitive labor force
 Strong domestic demand

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund

 Indonesia’s exports were not

spared during downturn
 However, other components
of GDP held up during crisis

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund

 Exports constitute a smaller portion of GDP

 Consumer spending picked up strongly

Source: Asian Development Bank

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
FDI inflows picking up
Fund
Portfolio inflows resume

Equity prices rebounded with regional bourses Rising foreign demand for government debt

Source: Asian Development Bank

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Aberdeen Indonesia Equity Fund GLL Adelphos
Fund

Domestic Consumption
•Less dependent on exports

Infrastructure Development
•US$140bn government spending

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Conclusion GLL Adelphos
Fund
  Underweight Neutral Overweight
Equities  Europe, UK China, HK  Indonesia
Japan US Large Cap,
Bonds  Corporate bonds Convertible 
Alternative Assets Commodities

Fund Invested Portfolio

Amount Weight
SCHRODER Alternative Solutions $3,500,000 35%
Commodities Fund
DB Platinum IV CROCI US $3,000,000 30%
ABERDEEN Indonesia Equity Fund $2,500,000 25%
PARVEST Asian Convertible Bond $1,000,000 10%

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Links GLL Adelphos
Fund
Global Deficit
US Sector focus
US Capacity Utilization
Strong Commodity Demand
Correlation of asset classes with inflation
CPI
Supply Shortage
Inflation
BOE
OECD Inventories
Indonesia’s Political Situation
Indonesia’s Economic Growth
China’s Economic Woes
Indian Powerhouse?

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Global Deficit GLL Adelphos
Fund

Source: BOA-ML Global

Research, IMF

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US Sector focus GLL Adelphos
Fund

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US Capacity Utilization GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Strong Commodity Demand GLL Adelphos
Fund
Rising Population
China Total Population (Millions) India Total Population (Millions)
1,380
1,290
1,370 1,270
1,250
1,360
1,230
1,350 1,210
1,190
1,340
1,170
1,330 1,150
1,130
1,320 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rapid Urbanization
China Urban Population ('000)
India Urban Population ('000)
680,000
400,000
660,000
390,000
640,000 2 .22% 2. 13%
R : 380,000 R:
620,000
CAG 370,000 CAG
360,000
600,000
350,000
580,000
340,000
560,000 330,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Correlation of asset classes with inflation GLL Adelphos
Fund

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CPI GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Supply Shortage GLL Adelphos
Fund
EL Nino

Booming Population
-Present farming yields have to be doubled
over the next forty years just to keep the
average per capita daily intake of calories at
the same levels as today.
Water Shortage
-Farming require vast amount of water and
demand for fresh water is climbing twice as
fast as the population is expanding

Desertification
-Arable land is shrinking at an alarming rate

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Inflation GLL Adelphos
Fund
Inflation beating expectation
(marked with a star below when inflation was higher than forecast):

CPI inflation history for 2009 (and expectations)

• January: 3.0% (2.7%)*
• February: 3.2% (2.6%)*
• March: 2.9% (2.9%)
• April: 2.3% (2.4%)
• May: 2.2% (2.0%)*
• June: 1.8% (1.8%)
• July: 1.8% (1.5%)*
• August: 1.6% (1.4%)*
• September: 1.1% (1.3%)
• October: 1.5% (1.5%)
• November: 1.9% (1.8%)*
• December: 2.9% (2.4%)*
• January: 3.5% (3.5%)

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BOE GLL Adelphos
Fund
• Bank of England
Current Rate: 0.5%
Current inflation:3.5%
Inflation Target: 2.0%

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OECD Inventories GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Indonesia’s Political Situation GLL Adelphos
Fund

Year Elected President

1966 Suharto

1999 Abdurrahman Wahid

2001 Megawati
2004 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
2009 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

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Indonesia’s Economic Growth GLL Adelphos
Fund

Sustained
economic growth
even amidst global
headwinds

Used prudent
measures to
maintain growth

Source: Bank of Indonesia

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Indonesia’s Economic Growth GLL Adelphos
Fund

Inflation to be kept in check

Source: Bank of Indonesia

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China’s Economic Woes GLL Adelphos
Fund
Surge in bank Property sales
lending volume surge

Property prices
skyrocketing

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Indian Powerhouse? GLL Adelphos
Fund

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Katrina and US Budget Deficit GLL Adelphos
Fund

• Hurricane Katrina cost $81.2bn

• US budget deficit currently at $10.6tn
• Makes up 0.8% of total US budget deficit
• Makes up 5% of FY09 budget deficit of $1.5tn

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 GLL Adelphos
Fund

*PBOC 1 year Yuan Lending Rate

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management

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Emerging Market Consumption GLL Adelphos
Fund

Market share of emerging markets in commodity consumption

1993 2008
Crude Oil 43.1% 51.8%
Aluminum 32.4% 59.2%
Copper 35.2% 61.7%

Source: International Energy Agency, World Bureau of Metals and US Department of Agriculture

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