Askabe MS Pres

Status Presentation
College Station, TX (USA) 12 August 2012
Integration of Production Analysis

and Rate-Time Analysis
via Parametric Correlations
Montney Shale Case Histories
Yohanes ASKABE
Department of Petroleum Engineering
Texas A&M University
College Station, TX 77843-3116 (USA)
yohanes.askabe@pe.tamu.edu
Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University
Integration of Production Analysis and Rate-Time Analysis via Parametric Correlations
Slide 1/38
(Alt.) Rate-Decline Relations for

Unconventional Reservoirs and
Development of Parametric Correlations for
Estimation of Reservoir Properties
Outline:
Objectives
Introduction
Rate-Time Models:
PLE Model
Logistic Growth Model (LGM)
Duong Model
Models performance analysis

Modified rate decline models
A Parametric correlation study
Methodology:
Analysis of time-rate model parameters

Correlation of time-rate model parameters with reservoir/well
parameters
Development of Parametric Correlations

Slide 2/38
Conclusions and Recommendations
Objectives/ Problem Statement:
Ilk et al., (2011) have demonstrated that rate-time parameters can be

correlated with reservoir/well parameters using limited well data
from unconventional reservoirs.
Theoretical verification and analysis of large number of high quality

field data is necessary to test and verify the parametric correlations
that correlate reservoir/well parameters with time-rate model
parameters.
This study will provide the opportunity to investigate performance of

modern time-rate models in matching and forecasting rate-time data
from unconventional reservoirs. The models considered are:

Slide 3/38
PLE Model
Duong Model
Introduction
Modern time-rate models (PLE) have been shown to provide
accurate EUR estimates and forecast future production when

bottomhole flowing pressure (pwf) is constant.
Time-Rate model Constraints:
Constant Bottomhole Pressure (pwf)

Constant Completion Parameters (Well lateral length, xf....)
Time-Rate model parameters can be correlated with reservoir/well

parameters (k, kxf, EUR)
A diagnostic Approach
Diagnostic Plots
Data Driven matching process
'qdb' type
diagnostic plot
discussed below

Slide 4/38
Governing Relations: Time-Rate Definitions
Time-Rate Analysis: Base Definitions

Based on the "Loss Ratio" concept (Arps, 1945).
Loss Ratio:
qg
1
D
dq g / dt
Loss Ratio Derivative:

d 1
d qg
b
dt D
dt dq g / dt
Approach
Continuous evaluation of D(t) and b(t) relations provide a

Slide 5/38
diagnostic method for matching time-rate data.

Diagnostic relations are used to derive empirical models.
Time-Rate Analysis: Power Law Exponential

History:
SPE 116731 (Ilk et al., 2008)

Derived from data (D(t) and b(t))
Analogous to Stretched-Exponential, but derived independently
Has a terminal term for boundary-dominated flow (D)
Governing Relations:
Rate-Time relation:
q (t ) q gi exp[ D t D i t n ]
g
PLE Loss Ratio relation:

D(t ) nD i t n 1 D
D i (n 1)nt n
b(t )
( D t D i nt n ) 2
Slide 6/38
PLE Loss Ratio Derivative relation:
Time-Rate Analysis: Duong Model

History:
SPE 137748 (Duong, 2011)

Based on extended linear/bilinear flow regime
Derived from transient behavior of unconventional-fractured
reservoirs
Relation extracted from straight line behavior of q/Gp vs. Time
(Log-Log) plot
Duong Rate-Time relation:

q g (t ) q gi t
exp
(t 1 m 1)
1 m
Duong Loss Ratio relation:

D(t ) mt 1 at m
mt m (t m at )
b(t )
(at mt m ) 2

Slide 7/38
Duong Loss Ratio Derivative relation:
Time-Rate Analysis: Logistic Growth Model (LGM)

History
SPE 144790 (Clark et al., 2011)

Adopted from population growth models
Modified form of hyperbolic logistic growth models
LGM Cumulative and Rate-Time relation:

Kt n
Qg (t )
a tn
aKnt ( n 1)
q g (t )
(a t n ) 2
LGM Loss Ratio relation:
a 2 (n 1) 2a (n 2 1)t n (n 1)t 2 n
b(t )
(a an (n 1)t n ) 2
Slide 8/38
a an (1 n)t n
D(t )
t (a t n )
LGM Loss Ratio Derivative relation:
Theoretical Consideration: Time-rate analysis
Well 1: k = 2000 nD
PLE Model
Transient
Transitional and
boundary-dominated
flow regimes.
LGM Model
Transient and
Transitional flow
regimes.
Duong Model
Transient flow
regimes.

Slide 9/38
Well 1: k = 2000 nD
PLE
Excellent time-rate
data match.
Accurate estimate of
EUR is possible.
LGM and Duong Models
Excellent match
during Transient
flow regimes.
Lack boundary
conditions.
EUR is
overestimated.

Slide 10/38
Well 2: k = 50 nD
PLE, LGM and Duong Models.
All models match transient flow-regimes very well.

In the absence of boundary-dominated flow, all models provide reliable
EUR estimate.

Slide 11/38

Well 2: k = 50nD
In the absence of

Slide 12/38
boundary-dominated
flow, PLE, LGM and
Duong Models can:
match transient flow
regimes very well and
provide good estimate
of EUR.

Slide 13/40
Modified Time-Rate Relations
Modified Time-Rate Models: Duong Model (MODEL 1)

Modified Duong Model
With boundary parameter, DDNG
Boundary-dominated flow can be modeled.

Derivation is based on loss-ratio definition. The modified form of
loss-ratio relation is given by:
D(t ) DDNG
m
at m
t
It is derived by assuming constant loss-ratio during boundary-
dominated flow regimes.

New time-rate relation can be derived from the loss-ratio relation.
It is given by:
a
m
q g (t ) q1t exp
t 1 m 1 DDNG t
1 m
Cumulative production relation can not be derived.

Numerical methods are necessary.

Slide 14/38
(Cont.) Modified Time-Rate Models: Duong Model - (MODEL 1)

Modified Duong Model DDNG
The loss-ratio derivative is given by:

mt m ( at t m )
b(t )
(at t m (m DDNG t )) 2

Slide 15/38
Boundary-dominated flows can be modeled.

EUR estimates are constrained.
Exponential decline characterizes boundary-dominated flow.
Modified Duong Model: 'qdb' type diagnostic plot. (MODEL 1)
Derived based on loss-ratio

derivation of Duong Model.
D(t )
m
at m DDNG
t
Added Constant

Boundary-dominated flows
can be modeled.
EUR estimates are
constrained.
Exponential decline
characterizes boundarydominated flow.

Slide 16/38
Modified Time-Rate Models: Duong Model - (MODEL 2)

With boundary parameter DDNG

Based on q/Gp Vs. time diagnostic plot.
q/Gp model-relation:
New
q
New time-rate relation:
q1
m 1
q g (t ) m exp DDNG (1 t ) aDDNG [1 m, DDNG ] [1 m, DDNG t ]
t
New Cumulative production relation:
q
m 1
G p (t ) 1 exp DDNG aDDNG [1 m, DDNG ] [1 m, DDNG t ]
a

Slide 17/38
Gp
at m exp[ DDNG t ]

Cont. (Model parameters)
The loss-ratio relation is given by:
m
D(t ) DDNG at m exp[ DDNG t ]
t
The loss-ratio derivative is given by:
at exp[ DLGM t ]t
(m DLGM t )

Slide 18/38
b(t )
exp[ DLGM t ]t m exp[ DLGM t ]mt m at (m DLGM t )
Modified Time-Rate Models: Duong Model (MODEL 2)

q/Gp vs. Time Diagnostic Plot
On log-log plot of q/Gp vs.
time:
Transient flow can be
characterized by a powerlaw relation, and
Boundary-dominated flow
can be characterized by an
exponential decline
relation.
q/Gp data can be matched
with the following relation:

Slide 19/38
q
at m exp[ DDNG t ]
Gp
Slide 20/40


Slide 21/38
Modified Time-Rate Models: Duong Model (Cont.)

Duong Model
Modified Duong Model - (ModelGp d q
2) G p d q
t
t
m DDNG t
q dt G p
q dt G p
Duong Model: Diagnostic Plot (Cont.)- Montney Shale Wells

vs. time Diagnostic Plot
m Duong parameter
describes rock-types,
stimulation practices and
fracture properties.

Slide 22/38
Gp d q
t
q dt G p

Slide 23/38

Numerical Simulation Case, k=8D.
Model shows excellent data match for all flow regimes.
Model Comparison
Duong Model
Model 1 and
Model 2
Modified Duong
Models provide a
better match
EUR is
constrained.

Slide 24/38
Modified Time-Rate Models: Models Comparison
Modified Time-Rate Models: Models Comparison

Numerical Simulation Case (k = 8 D)
Model Comparison
Duong Model
Model 1 and
Model 2
Modified Duong Models

provide excellent match
to Transient, Transition
and boundary-dominated
flow regimes.
Duong Model can also
match observed early
time Skin and production
constraints.

Slide 25/38
Modified Time-Rate Models: Logistic Growth Model (MODEL 3)
Modified Logistic Growth Model

With boundary parameter DLGM
Modified LGM time-rate relation: Assuming exponential decline
during boundary dominated flow regimes.
aKnt ( n 1)
q g (t )
exp[ DLGM t ]
n 2
(a t )
Modified LGM Loss Ratio relation:

a (1 n DLGM t ) t n (1 n DLGM t )
D(t )
t (a t n )
a 2 (n 1) 2a (n 2 1)t n (n 1)t 2 n
b(t )
(a (1 n DLGM t ) t n (1 n DLGM t )) 2
Slide 26/38
Modified LGM Loss Ratio derivative relation:
Modified Logistic Growth Model: MODEL 3-qdb' type

diagnostic plot.
Modified Logistic Growth

Model:
Boundary-dominated
flows can be modeled
accurately
EUR estimates are
constrained.
Exponential decline
characterizes
boundary-dominated
flow.
Prior knowledge of gas in
place (K) is required.
Direct formulation of Gp is
not possible. Numerical
methods are necessary.

Slide 27/38
Modified Logistic Growth Model: (MODEL 4)

Using Diagnostic plot of [K/Qg 1] vs. t or tmb
Kt
Qg (t )
a tn
K
a tn
n
Qg (t )
t
K
at n 1
Qg (t )
K
1 at n
Qg (t )
The last relation suggests that a log-log

plot of [K/Qgt 1] versus time shows a
power-law relation for transient flow
regimes.
Now, we can suggest the following
relation with modification for boundary

dominated flow regimes.
K
1 at n exp[ DLGM t ] R
Qg (t )
Where
K = Initial Gas in
Place.
R = Remaining
Gas Reserve at t.

Slide 28/38
From LGM Model we

have
Modified Logistic Growth Model: (MODEL 4)
Now, we can derive the associated modified relations.

K
Qg (t )
Kt n exp[ DLGM t ]
Qg (t )
a (1 R ) exp[ DLGM t ]t n
q g (t )
a exp[ DLGM t ]Kt n 1 (n DLGM t )
R = Remaining Gas Reserve at

t
K
1 t R
Qg (t )
lim
a (1 R) exp[ DLGM t ]t n 2
Cumulative Production [Gp(t)] relation can be derived for

Slide 29/38
Model 4.
Modified Logistic Growth Model: Diagnostic Plot

Corrected K/Q-1 Relation (MODEL 4)
If K is known, we
can estimate
parameters a and n
from the transient
flow regime.
.DLGM can be
modified based on
boundary
behaviors.
= 161
= 0.79
= 20,219,576.75
= 0.00029
= 0.157

Slide 30/38
a
n
K
Dlgm
R
Modified Logistic Growth Model: Comparison

(MODEL and MODEL 4)
Modified LGM models
can match transient and

boundary-dominated
flow regimes better than
LGM model.
EUR is constrained.
MODEL 4 provides a
better match.
Gp relation can be
derived for MODEL 4.
Prior knowledge of gas

Slide 31/38
in place (K) is required.
Theoretical Consideration: Synthetic Case Examples
A horizontal well with multiple transverse fractures is modeled.

The model inputs are as follows:
Net pay thickness, h
Formation permeability, k
Wellbore Radius, rw
Formation
compressibility, cf
Porosity,
Initial reservoir pressure, pi
Gas saturation, sg
Skin factor, s
Reservoir Temperature, Tr
Fluid Properties:
Gas specific gravity, g

= 39.624 m
= 0.25 D - 5D
= 0.10668 m
= 4.35E-7 kPa-1
=
=
=
=
=
0.09 (fraction)
34,473.8 kPa
1.0 (fraction)
0.01 (dimensionless)
100 C

= 0.6 (air=1)
Hydraulically Fractured Well Model Parameters:

Fracture half-length, xf
Number of Fractures
Horizontal well length, l
Production parameters:
Flowing pressure, pwf
Producing time, t
= 50 m
= 20
= 1,500 m
Transverse Fractures
Synthetic Examples
14 Models with permeability (k)
ranging from 0.25 D - 5D.

All other reservoir/well and
fluid parameters are identical.

= 3447.4 kPa
= 10,598 days (30 Years)

Slide 32/38
Reservoir Properties:
Horizontal well with multiple transverse

fractures
Parameter Analysis: PLE Time-Rate Model

Slide 33/38
PLE model parameters are related to EUR estimates from PDA
Parameter Analysis: PLE Time-Rate Model

Slide 34/38
PLE model parameters are related to permeability
Parameter Correlation: Permeability
A parametric correlation
that relates reservoir
permeability with ratetime model parameters
can be produced.

Slide 35/38
Parameter Correlation: EUR
A parametric correlation
that relates EUR
estimates with rate-time
model parameters can be
produced.
The parametric
correlation may not be
unique.

Slide 36/38
Field Data Example: Permeability
Field data example: Montney Shale, (Brassey) Wells

Careful analysis of
pressure/production data
is necessary to accurately
estimate reservoir/well
parameters (k, EUR, xf).
Decline curve analysis is

Slide 37/38
then carried out to

estimate EUR.
Field Data Example: EUR
Field data example: Montney Shale, (Brassey) Wells

EUR is normalized by
initial BHP (Pi), and
number of effective
fractures.

Slide 38/38
Conclusion:
It is possible to integrate time-rate model parameters with

reservoir/well parameters using parametric correlations.
Parametric correlations solve the uncertainty regarding the number

of unknown parameters in model based production data analysis.
Modern rate decline models are successful at modeling different
flow regimes observed from unconventional reservoirs. In summary:

PLE Model
Transient, transition, and, boundary-dominated flow regimes are

Slide 39/38
successfully modeled.
Transient, and transition flow regimes are successfully modeled.
Duong Model
Only transient flow regimes are matched.
EUR is overestimated.
Doesnt conform to qdb type diagnostic plot.

Slide 40/38
Extra Slides
Slide 41/38

Slide 42/38

Slide 43/38

Summary: Model Comparison

Rate Decline
Models
Model Relations
Power-law
exponential
q (t ) q gi exp[ Dt D i t n ]
g
Diagnostic Plots
Recommendation
D (t ) nD i t n 1 D
Use diagnostic
relation
Duong Model
qg
Gp
(t 1 m 1)
1 m
at m
q g (t ) q git m exp
Modified Duong
Model
q
at m exp[ DDNG t ]
Gp
q g (t )
DDNG (1 t ) aDDNG
q1
exp
tm
[1 m, DDNG ] [1 m, DDNG t ]
m 1
Modified LGM
Slide 44/38
Logistic Growth
Model (LGM)
Use diagnostic
relation
Do not match
boundary flow
regimes.
Modified Logistic Growth Model: Corrected K/Q-1 Relation
LGM K (Carrying
capacity) is equivalent
to Gas in Place
volumetric estimate.
Gas in place estimate
should be available to
use this model
K/Q(t)-1 vs. tmb

Slide 45/38
diagnostic plot can be

used.
g
q g (t ) q git
exp
(t 1 m 1)
1 m
aKnt ( n 1)
q g (t )
(a t n ) 2
Duong
LGM
a 1 m
t 1 DDNG t Modified Duong MODEL 1

1 m
q g (t ) q1t m exp
q g (t )
PLE
q1
m 1
[1 m, DDNG ] [1 m, DDNG t ]
exp
D
(
1
t
)
aD
DNG
DNG
m
t
Modified Duong MODEL 2
Modified LGM MODEL 1
Modified LGM MODEL 2

Slide 46/40
aKnt ( n 1)
q g (t )
exp[ DLGM t ]
n 2
(a t )
q g (t )
a (1 R) exp[ DLGM t ]t n 2
D(t ) nD i t n 1 D b(t )
D (t ) mt 1 at m
D i (n 1)nt n
( D t D i nt n ) 2
mt m (t m at )
b(t )
(at mt m ) 2
PLE
Duong
a an (1 n)t n
a 2 (n 1) 2a (n 2 1)t n (n 1)t 2 n LGM
D (t )
b(t )
n
t (a t )
(a an (n 1)t n ) 2
m
m
Modified Duong
m
mt
(
at
t
)
m
D (t ) DDNG at b(t )
MODEL 1
t
m
D(t ) DDNG at m exp[ DDNG t ]
t
Modified Duong
b (t )
MODEL 2
at exp[ DLGM t ]t m (m DLGM t ) 2
a 2 (n 1) 2a (n 2 1)t n (n 1)t 2 n
b(t )
Modified LGM
MODEL 1

Slide 47/40
a (1 n DLGM t ) t n (1 n DLGM t )
D(t )
t (a t n )
q1
m 1
q g (t ) m exp DDNG (1 t ) aDDNG [1 m, DDNG ] [1 m, DDNG t ]
t
q1
m 1
G p (t ) exp DDNG aDDNG [1 m, DDNG ] [1 m, DDNG t ]
a
q
at m exp[ DDNG t ]
Gp
D(t ) DDNG
m
at m exp[ DDNG t ]
t

Slide 48/38

b (t )
Power Law Exponential (PLE) Model

Loss Ratio Relation
D (t ) nD i t n 1 D
Basis for PLE Model
Rate-Time Relation
g
Loss-Ratio Derivative

Slide 49/40
D i ( n 1)nt n
b(t )
( D t D i nt n ) 2
Duong Time-Rate Relation

q/Gp vs. Production Time Log-Log Plot
q
at m
Gp
Basis for Duong Model
Rate-Time Relation
a
q g (t ) q1t m exp
(t 1 m 1)
1 m
Cumulative-Time Relation
q
a
G p 1 exp
(t 1 m 1)
a
1 m
Loss-Ratio
D (t ) mt 1 at m

Slide 50/40
mt m (t m at )
b(t )
(at mt m ) 2

K/Q(t) -1 vs. Production Time Log-Log Plot
K
1 at n
Basis for LGM
Q(t )
Rate-Time Relation
aKnt ( n 1)
q g (t )
(a t n ) 2
Loss-Ratio
a an (1 n)t n
D (t )
t (a t n )
a 2 (n 1) 2a (n 2 1)t n (n 1)t 2 n
b(t )
(a an (n 1)t n ) 2
Slide 51/40
Kt n
Gp
a t n
Modified Duong Model (Model 1)

Loss Ratio Relation
D(t ) DDNG mt 1 at m Basis for Modified Duong Model

Rate-Time Relation
a 1 m
t 1 DDNG t
1 m
q g (t ) q1t m exp

Slide 52/40
mt m ( at t m )
b(t )

q/Gp vs. Production Time Log-Log Plot
Basis for Modified Duong Model (Model 2)
Rate-Time Relation
q
m 1
q g (t ) m1 exp DDNG (1 t ) aDDNG [1 m, DDNG ] [1 m, DDNG t ]
t
q
m 1
G p (t ) 1 exp DDNG aDDNG [1 m, DDNG ] [1 m, DDNG t ]
a
Loss-Ratio
m
D (t ) DDNG at m exp[ DDNG t ]
t
b(t )

Slide 53/40
q
at m exp[ DDNG t ]
Gp
Modified Logistic Growth Model (Model 1)

Loss Ratio Relation
a an (1 n)t n
D (t )
DLGM
n
t (a t )
Basis for Modified Logistic Growth Model

(Model 1)
Rate-Time Relation
aKnt ( n 1)
q g (t )
exp[ DLGM t ]
n 2
(a t )

Slide 54/40
a 2 (n 1) 2a (n 2 1)t n (n 1)t 2 n
b(t )

K/Q(t) -1 vs. Production Time Log-Log Plot
K
Qg (t )
Basis for Modified LGM (Model 2)
Rate-Time Relation
q g (t )
a (1 R) exp[ D
n
LGM t ]t
Kt n exp[ DLGM t ]
Qg (t )
a (1 R ) exp[ DLGM t ]t n
Loss-Ratio
qg
1
D
dq g / dt
d 1
d qg
dt D
dt dq g / dt
Slide 55/40

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Status Presentation

College Station, TX (USA) 12 August 2012

Integration of Production Analysis

(Alt.) Rate-Decline Relations for

Models performance analysis

Analysis of time-rate model parameters

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

Conclusions and Recommendations

Objectives/ Problem Statement:

Ilk et al., (2011) have demonstrated that rate-time parameters can be

Theoretical verification and analysis of large number of high quality

This study will provide the opportunity to investigate performance of

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

Modern time-rate models (PLE) have been shown to provide

accurate EUR estimates and forecast future production when

Time-Rate model Constraints:

Constant Bottomhole Pressure (pwf)

Time-Rate model parameters can be correlated with reservoir/well

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

Governing Relations: Time-Rate Definitions

Time-Rate Analysis: Base Definitions

Loss Ratio Derivative:

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

diagnostic method for matching time-rate data.

Time-Rate Analysis: Power Law Exponential

SPE 116731 (Ilk et al., 2008)

PLE Loss Ratio relation:

PLE Loss Ratio Derivative relation:

Time-Rate Analysis: Duong Model

SPE 137748 (Duong, 2011)

Duong Rate-Time relation:

Duong Loss Ratio relation:

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

Duong Loss Ratio Derivative relation:

Time-Rate Analysis: Logistic Growth Model (LGM)

SPE 144790 (Clark et al., 2011)

LGM Cumulative and Rate-Time relation:

LGM Loss Ratio relation:

Theoretical Consideration: Time-rate analysis

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

Theoretical Consideration: Time-rate analysis

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

Theoretical Consideration: Time-rate analysis

PLE, LGM and Duong Models.

All models match transient flow-regimes very well.

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

Theoretical Consideration: Time-rate analysis

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

Modified Time-Rate Relations

Modified Time-Rate Models: Duong Model (MODEL 1)

Boundary-dominated flow can be modeled.

It is derived by assuming constant loss-ratio during boundary-

dominated flow regimes.

Cumulative production relation can not be derived.

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

(Cont.) Modified Time-Rate Models: Duong Model - (MODEL 1)

The loss-ratio derivative is given by:

Modified Duong Model

Status Presentation Yohanes ASKABE Texas A&M University

Boundary-dominated flows can be modeled.

Modified Duong Model: 'qdb' type diagnostic plot. (MODEL 1)