Losing Air Dominance?

Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning

 Operation Desert Storm, 1991

What is Air Dominance?

23,455
Ground Attack
Air Superiority

43,735

• Air superiority over enemy to meet joint force goals

• Freedom to attack…any target, with mission success
• Freedom from attack…defeat of enemy fighters and SAMs
• Freedom to maneuver…for forces on land or sea
Iraq and Afghanistan Sorties Flown 2004 to 2008
2008

2007

2006 OEF CAS

OIF CAS
2005

2004

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

4000
Munitions Dropped 2004 to 2008
3500
OIF
3000
OEF
2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
The Plan After 1991
• Success of F-117 in 1991 Gulf war
set Air Force position on stealth
• Fighter force structure cut by 44%
as Cold War ended
• Replacement strategy:
• 1991: Advanced Tactical Fighter
program down-select to maintain
air dominance technologies
• 1994: Joint Strike Fighter research
initiated as affordable stealth
fighter/attack to replace F-16 and
A-10 force structure
• “Never again buy a non-stealthy
fighter” – Chief of Staff Gen. McPeak
 Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1963-2008
800
F-117
F-22
700 F-15E
F-16 (A/B/C/D)
A/OA-10
600 F-15 (A/B/C/D)

500
Today’s CAF purchased F-111
F-5
F-4
F-105
400

300

200

100

0
63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 2003 2008

*Estimates 59 F-117s
 The Force Mix Active Component 1995
Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft
A-10,
A-10, F-4,
F-4, F-111,
F-111, F-15,
F-15, F-15E,
F-15E, F-16,
F-16, F-117,
F-117, F-22
F-22
• Force healthy in
2500
mid-1990s
Aircraft Under 18 yrs
• Steady fighter buys 2000 Aircraft Over 18 yrs
in 1980s
recapitalized force
1500
• 1995: Legacy
fighters over 18 1000
years less than 1%
of active force
500

0
1990 1995 2000

Only 6 aircraft
over 18 yrs.
TAI Active Only
2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom:
Aircraft Felt Their Age
Mission
Mission Capable
Capable Rates
Rates
Operation
Operation Desert
Desert Storm
Storm vs.
vs. Operation
Operation Iraqi
Iraqi Freedom
Freedom
100
95
90
85
80
75
70 Desert Storm: Data 28 Feb 91
65 Iraqi Freedom: Data Average
60
55
50
F-15C F-15E F-117 F-16

• Decline from Operation Desert

Storm averaged over 10%
• F-15C average age = 18 years
F-22s

• F-22 is first supersonic

stealth aircraft
• 2 engine, supercruise
design with ample
internal missiles
• Designed to assure air
dominance through
fleet life ~2040
– Depends on number
of aircraft procured
 From Three Fighters to One
• F-117: Stealth attack of
heavily defended
targets

F-15C/D 200
• F-15E: Advanced air-
to-ground platform F-15E
F-117
410 55
• F-15: Air superiority
fighter with 100 kills,
no air combat losses 665 Total Active F-15, F-15E and F-117

F-22
183 Currently Funded
381 F-22s Air Force Requirement
 • In contrast, the F-22 has four
How to See Stealth internal weapons bays and
targeting integrated with its
avionics
NOT
STEALTH STEALTH

• This F-15E from

Lakenheath on an OIF
mission carried fuel,
targeting pods, air-to-
• Internal fuel and weapons bays
ground weapons and air-
greatly improve the F-22’s stealth
to-air missiles externally
– The two side-bay doors are open here
F-22 and F-35: Partnership
F-22 technology development Radar
and risk reduction flow to F-35
F119/F120 Engine
Development

Integrated, open
architecture avionics
Unique F-22
Capabilities

Computer-based
maintenance
Advanced LO Materials
and Manufacturing
 True to Plan: Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015
300
F-35
F-22
250
F-15E
F-16 (A/B/C/D)
1991 Gulf War A/OA-10
200 F-15 (A/B/C/D)

150 F-22 and F-35 would have

led to smaller force, more
precision and survivability,
100 no legacy aircraft

50

0
88 93 98 2003 2008 2013

Estimate
Comptroller’s Plan December 2004: PBD 753
(FY06 PB)

• PBD 753 cut $10B from • Pushed long-term funding

F-22 program (100 aircraft) far below stated
requirement
$10.5B Cut
$46.1B Cut

~2,167 req’t.

~ 1772
QDR

~1285 funded
F-15E
More O&S
F-15C 197
costs for old
F-22 190
Fighters
 Crisis: Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015
300
F-35
F-22
250
F-15E
F-16 (A/B/C/D)
1991 Gulf War A/OA-10
200 F-15 (A/B/C/D)

150

Budget cuts shrink force

100 below QDR requirement

50

0
88 93 98 2003 2008 2013

Estimate
 The Legacy Force Mix Active Component
Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft
A-10,
A-10, F-4,
F-4, F-111,
F-111, F-15,
F-15, F-15E,
F-15E, F-16,
F-16, F-117,
F-117, F-22
F-22
• Steady fighter buys in 2500
1980s recapitalized Aircraft Under 18 yrs
force 2000 Aircraft Over 18 yrs
• From 1990 to 2008,
active fighter and 1500
attack force shed
~1000 aircraft 1000
• 1995: Legacy fighters
over 18 years less than 500
1% of active force
• 2008: Legacy fighters 0
over 18 years 55% of 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008
active force
Only 6 aircraft 784 aircraft
over 18 yrs. over 18 yrs.
TAI Active Only
F-22 Force Sizing Elmendorf AFB

2
Langley AFB

NATO: No F-22s
2

2
CENTCOM AOR 1
Holloman AFB PACOM AOR
Hickam AFB

Current: Considerations:
Considerations:
• Program of Record is 183 total aircraft •• New
New administration
administration budget
budget guidance
guidance
buy
•• F-22
F-22 availability
availability for
for NATO
NATO
• Will yield ~126 Combat-Coded Aircraft
• 7 Squadrons 18 PAA •• PACOM
PACOM force
force structure
structure
–– Option
Option for
for Japan*
Japan*
 Threat Environment
2884
2884 Iraqi
Iraqi Surface to Air Missile
• Iraq 2003: 2884 launches in Launches in 2003
25 days 200 190

– Peak: 190 launches on Day 15 180

160 149
143
• Persistent mobile SAMs 140
113
120 105 105
moved daily 100
96 92 93 90 93

80 67
– SA-2, SA-3, SA-6s, Rolands 60
61
47
54
65

– 66% were unlocated despite 40

20
23
14 19 9 17
2 4 5 3
12 years of operations and one 0

year of accelerated SAM 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 24 25

destruction Threats can persist for

SA-20
• Kosovo 1999: 894 SAM weeks even against older
defenses
launches in 78 days
– Peak: 43 launches on Day 39 US forces have not yet
faced SA-20
Red Air
Lethal SAMS and Red air
• ~1200 F-10 advanced 4th
Gen fighters in
production
– DIA estimates similar to
Typhoon, Rafale
• Su-30 and Su-33
purchases
• Work on AWACS-like “You
“You will
will be
be
system based on IL-76 outnumbered…”
outnumbered…”
ADM
ADMWillard,
Willard,Commander,
Commander, PRC F-10
• Acquisition of 8 Russian US
USPacific
PacificFleet,
Fleet,Sep
Sep2008
2008
air refueling aircraft
• Complete radar coverage
of all borders
Source: DoD Report, 2006
 Getting Back on Track?
• Ratio gets worse, before it
gets better
• Fighter force reaches 80% Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft
legacy circa 2014 A-10,
A-10, F-4,
F-4, F-111,
F-111, F-15,
F-15, F-15E,
F-15E, F-16,
F-16, F-117,
F-117, F-22
F-22
• Recovers to 62% legacy circa 2500
2020 Aircraft Under 18 yrs
– Assumes 243 total F-22s 2000 Aircraft Over 18 yrs
– Assumes ramp rate to 80
USAF F-35s per year 1500
• Active total inventory
declines to 1320 1000
– Guard and Reserve forces
steadily age out
500
• Fighter and attack force
highly capable but limited in
number of joint tasks it can 0
serve 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2014 2020

Estimate
TAI Active Only
 F-22 Termination Options
Current Lot 10 then defer Maintain service
Program to QDR Analysis CJCS: “60” life to 2038
Yields ~203 F-22s

Fleet
Size

183 200 220 240 260 280 300 339 381

OSD USAF

Lot 10 Lot 11 Lot 12 • Sustain force with 3 more lots

– 20-24 acft per lot
• Synchronize with F-35 way forward
– Hedge F-35 concurrency risk
• 10 squadrons total
– Take from back-up inventory, training and attrition
reserve to create 10 squadrons
 • Biggest risk:
restricting
Way Ahead… program build-
up from 2010 to
• No service depends more on F-35 2015
than the USAF
• Only program of maturity and scale
to maintain USAF fighter and attack
missions

• Essential for
Navy, Marine
Corps and
allies
 “I can throw a blanket over the

F-22 Workforce Impact production line to keep it warm,

but what about the people?” -- F-22
Program Manager

18000
30000 If Production Continues
16000

14000
25000
12000
Jobs Lost at F-22
20000
10000
Production Termination
8000
17,000 6000
15000 4000
To F-35
2000
F-22
10000 0
Option
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

5000 WA

CT Direct F-22 Jobs

0
GA by State
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NH

• F-22 has 26,657 direct jobs in 2008 TX

CA
– At full rate, F-35 will transfer 5300 jobs* some to other
programs Other

– 4,400 jobs remain on F-22 after 2011 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

• Permanent loss of 17,000 highly skilled jobs