Math 361

Probability & Statistics

Example Problems

 Whats the chance of hitting a red light at least once during the week (5
days)? (assuming P(R) = 0.35, P(Y) = 0.04, P(G) = 0.61)
First Approach
We could start by calculating the probability of hitting exactly 1 red light during the
week, then exactly 2, then 3, 4, and 5
Then wed just need to add them up!
P(1 Red) = 5 x (R1 x NR4) = 5 x (0.351 x 0.654) = 0.3124
P(2 Red) = 10 x (R2 x NR3) = 10 x (0.352 x 0.653) = 0.3364
P(3 Red) = 10 x (R3 x NR2) = 10 x (0.353 x 0.652) = 0.1811
P(4 Red) = 5 x (R4 x NR1) = 5 x (0.354 x 0.651) = 0.0488
P(5 Red) = 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 = 0.0052
P(At least 1 Red) = 0.3124 + 0.3364 + 0.1811 + 0.0488 + 0.0052 = 0.884

 Second Approach
It can be easier to work using the complement of the event were interested in
Whats the complement of getting at least one red light?
Its getting no red lights, five days in a row.
We know the probability of hitting a red light is 0.35 each day, so by the complement rule,
the probability of not hitting a red light each day is 1 0.35 = 0.65
The probability of making it through five days in a row without hitting a red light is (0.65)5
Now, taking the complement of this compound event, we find the probability that it doesnt
happen( no 0 red lights) is:
P(at least 1 red light) = 1 - (0.65)5 = 1 0.116 = 0.884

 Whats the probability I dont encounter a red light until Wednesday?

(assuming P(R) = 0.35, P(Y) = 0.04, P(G) = 0.61)
For that to happen, youd have to see green or yellow on Monday, green or
yellow on Tuesday, and then red on Wednesday
Combining all those probabilities could get messy. We can simplify this by
thinking of it as not red on Monday and Tuesday and then red on Wednesday
P(~R) = 1 P(R) = 1 0.35 = 0.65, so
P(~R on Mon AND ~R on Tue AND R on Wed) = P(~R) x P(~R) x P(R)
= 0.65 x 0.65 x 0.35 = 0.1478
Theres about a 14.8% chance that this week Ill hit my first red light on
Wednesday morning

 In 2001, Masterfoods, the manufacturers of M&Ms milk chocolate

candies, decided to add another color to the standard color lineup of brown,
yellow, red, orange, blue, and green. To decide which color to add, they
surveyed kids in nearly every country of the world and asked them to vote
among purple, pink, and teal. The global winner was purple! In the United
States, 42% of those who voted said purple, 37% said teal, and only 19%
said pink. But in Japan the percentages were 38% pink, 36% teal, and
only 16% purple. Let s use Japans percentages to ask some questions:
1. What s the probability that a Japanese M&Ms survey respondent selected
at random preferred either pink or teal?
2. If we pick two respondents at random, what s the probability that they
both selected purple?
3. If we pick three respondents at random, whats the probability that at least
one preferred purple?

 The probabilities of an event is its long-term relative frequency.

Here we are told the relative frequencies of the three responses.
Make sure the probabilities are legitimate.
Here, theyre not. Either there was a mistake, or the other voters
must have chosen a color other than the three given
P(pink) = 0.38, P(teal) = 0.36, P(purple) = 0.16
Each is between 0 and 1, but they dont all add up to 1
The remaining 10% of the voters must have not expressed a
preference or written in another color
Well put them under no preference, so P(no pref.) = 0.10
With this addition, we have a legitimate assignment of probabilities

 Question 1: What s the probability that a Japanese M&M s

survey respondent selected at random preferred either pink or
teal?
Plan: Decide which rules to use and check the conditions they
require
The events Pink and Teal are individual outcomes (A respondent can
choose both colors.), so they are disjoint. we can apply the Addition
Rule.
Mechanics: Show your work
P(pink or teal) = P(pink) + P(teal) = 0.38 + 0.36 = 0.74
Conclusion: Interpret your results in the proper context
The probability that the respondent said pink or teal is 0.74

 Question 2. If we pick two respondents at random, whats the probability that

they both said purple?
Plan: The word both suggests we want P(A and B), which calls for the
Multiplication Rule. Think about the assumption.
Independence Assumption: It s unlikely that the choice made by one respondent
affected the choice of the other, so the events seem to be independent. I can use the
Multiplication Rule.
Mechanics: Show your work
P(both purple)
= P(first respondent picks purple and
second respondent picks purple)
= P(first respondent picks purple) x P(second respondent picks purple)
= 0.16 x 0.16 = 0.0256
Conclusion: The probability that both respondents pick purple is 0.0256

 Question 3. If we pick three respondents at random, what s the

probability that at least one preferred purple?
Plan: The phrase at least often flags a question best
answered by looking at the complement, and thats the best
approach here.
The complement of At least one preferred purple is none of them
preferred purple
P(at least on picked purple) = P({none picked purple} c)
= 1 P(none picked purple)
P(none picked purple) = P(not purple and not purple and not purple)
These are independent events because they are choices by three
random respondents so we can use the multiplication rule

 Mechanics:
P(none picked purple) = P(first not purple) x P(second not purple) x
P(third not purple)
= [P(not purple)]3.
P(not purple) = 1 - P(purple) = 1 0.16 = 0.84
So P(none picked purple) = (0.84)3 = 0.5927.
P(at least 1 picked purple)
= 1 - P(none picked purple)
= 1 - 0.5927 = 0.4073.
Conclusion: Theres about a 40.7% chance that at least one of
the respondents picked purple

Q. The Masterfoods company says that before the introduction of purple,

yellow candies made up 20% of their plain M&M s, red another 20%, and
orange, blue, and green each made up 10%. The rest were brown.
a) If you pick an M&M at random, what is the probability that
it is brown?
0.30
it is yellow or orange?
0.30
it is not green?
0.90
it is striped?
0.0

b) If you pick three M&M s in a row, what is the probability that

they are all brown?
0.027
the third one is the first one that s red?
0.128
none are yellow?
0.512
at least one is green?
0.271

Q. You roll a fair die three times. What is the probability that
You roll all 6s?
0.0046
You roll all odd numbers?
0.125
None of your rolls gets a number divisible by 3?
0.296
You roll at least one 5?
0.421
The numbers you roll are not all 5s?
0.995

The End