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Food and Chemical Safety Global Warming
Food and Chemical Safety Global Warming
AJ McMichael
National Centre for
Epidemiology and Population Health
The Australian National University
Canberra
Should the Health Sector Engage?
1. Health risks are real … and are increasing.
2. Extreme weather events likely to increase: Could
overwhelm health sector’s capacity.
3. CC jeopardises other ongoing health gains – esp.
in low-income/vulnerable populations
(e.g. Millennium Devt Goals; HIV/AIDS pandemic; etc.)
4. Health sector has, generally, been slow to
recognise and respond to risk. Consequently:
Inadequate capacity-building (research, prevention, policy)
Deficient contact/engagement with other sectors
Feedback
Mitigation: Reduce
pressure on environment
Overview of Recent CC Science
Together, the reported GCM model runs for the 6 IPCC
emissions scenarios forecast, for 2100, increases in
temperature (central estimate per scenario) of 1.4-5.8 oC.
Most of the uncertainty reflects unknowable human futures
(the scenarios); the rest is due to model uncertainties.
A further ~0.7 oC is ‘committed’ (on top of the 0.6oC already
realised)
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) already looks
conservative. Recent studies indicate accelerating change.
Political discourse in high-income countries is now starting
to acknowledge need for 80+% reduction in emissions
relative 2000.
Projected warming, to 2100: for six future
global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007: Wkg Gp I
3 of the 6 emissions
scenarios Uncertainty
range: 1
standard
Warming already in ‘pipeline’ from deviation
1.8 - 4.0 oC
A1B
Warming + 2oC
(oC) B1
23 models 1980-99 A1T B2 A1F1
(tested against baseline
temperatu
recent record) re
16-21 models
No. of
used for each
models
scenario used
Rahmstorf, Church, et
al., Science 2007
35,000-50,000
extra deaths over
a 2-week period
Seasonal variation in daily
mortality pattern, Delhi, 1991-94
60
40
Daily
deaths
20
0
1jan,1991 1jan,1993 1jan,1995
Heat-related mortality, Delhi, 1991-94:
Generalised additive model, with cubic-spline smoothing
Relative mortality
(% of daily
average)
140
120
100
Uncertainty
range: 95% CI
80
0 10 20 30 40
Daily mean temperature (oC)
McMichael et al, ISOTHURM Study
Diagram of Typical Influence of Seasonal
Rainfall, Surface Water, and Crowding on
Cholera Occurrence, Madras region
Ro = ‘reproductive number’ Based on Ruiz-Moreno, Pascual, Bouma,
et al, EcoHealth 2007; 4: 52-62.
Study of 26 districts, Madras Presidency,
south-east India, 1901-1940.
1.0 1.0
Shallow Flood
Water Depth
Domestic bamboo pole holders
Found in public housing estates
1960s
Thousand-fold
increase in reported
incidence
1990s
Dengue fever only
DHF/DSS
Dengue007/CMH/260302
1990 Estimated
regional
probability of
dengue
occurrence
under medium
climate change
scenario: 2085
vs 1990
2085 Using statistical
equation derived
from observations of
recent distribution of
disease in relation to
meterological
variables
Source: Hales
et al. Lancet,
2002.
http://image.thelancet
Probabili
ty
Schistosomiasis: Northwards extension of potential transmission
(limited by ‘freezing zone’), in Jiangsu province, due to rise in average
January temperature since 1960
planned
Sth-to-Nth
water
canal
100%
Photo-
synthetic 2oC
activity 2oC
0%
20o C 30o C 40o C
Feedback
Mitigation: Reduce
pressure on environment
CC and Health: Main Types of
Adaptive Strategies
Public education and awareness
Early-alert systems: heatwaves, other impending weather extremes,
infectious disease outbreaks
Community-based neighbourhood support/watch schemes
Climate-proofed housing design, and ‘cooler’ urban layout
Disaster preparedness, incl. health-system ‘surge’ capacity
Enhanced infectious disease control programs
vaccines, vector control, case detection and treatment
Improved surveillance:
Risk indicators (e.g. mosquito numbers, aeroallergen concentration)
Health outcomes (e.g. inf dis outbreaks, rural suicide rates, seasonal asthma peaks)
Appropriate workforce training and mid-career development
Use of climate-health time-series data to develop a
Malaria Early Warning System (Botswana)
Observed summer Forecast (advance-
(Dec-Feb) rain modelled) summer rain
Highest
(versus)
Relationship between
summer rainfall and
Lowest subsequent annual
malaria malaria incidence …
incidence
years
2. Detect 4.Predictive
1. Learn: impacts
CC-health
estimation
3. Estimate (eg, modelling)
relations current burden
M a lar ia
Now (2000)
D ia rr h oea Future (2030)
Ma ln u tritio n
120 10 0 80 60 40 20 0 2 4 6 8 10
Adaptations
Vulnerability
of group Learning
Actions in
Exposure Health response to
Impact impact
Mitigation:
Reduced
exposure
Projected warming, to 2100: for six future
global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007
3 of the 6 emissions
scenarios Uncertainty
range: 1
standard
Warming already in ‘pipeline’ from deviation
1.8 - 4.0 oC
A1B
Warming + 2oC
(oC) B1
23 models 1980-99 A1T B2 A1FI
(tested against baseline
temperature
recent record)
16-21 models
No. of Range of estimates
used for each
models for all GCM model
scenario used runs of B1
scenarios emissions
1900 2000 2100 6 different GHG
Year emissions scenarios
Malaria in Tawau, Sabah
25000 7
6
20000
No. of cases, ABER & ANB
15000
4
Rainfall
3
10000
2
5000
1
0 0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
600,000 479,848
400,000 295,554
200,000 122,174
908 15,497
0