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YMS3e Chapter 3
3.3: Correlation and Regression Extras
Mr. Molesky
Regression Basics
Scatter Plot
Scatter Plot
The
TheEndangered
EndangeredManatee
Manatee
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
00
Scatter
ScatterPlot
Plot
Scatter Plot
Scatter Plot
Minitab Output
R-Sq = 60.6%
T
11.54
-4.04
T
11.54
R-4.04
Sq(adj)=57.8
%
RSq(adj)=57.8
%
P
0.000
0.000
P
0.000
0.000
Outliers/Influential
Points
Does
the age of a childs first word
predict his/her mental ability? Consider
Age
AgeatatFirst
FirstWord
Wordand
andGesell
GesellScore
Score
Child
Age
Score
Child
Age
Score
11
22
33
44
55
66
77
88
11
22
15
15months
months
26
26months
months
95
95
71
71
33 10
10months
months
44 99months
months
55 15
15months
months
83
83
91
91
66
77
20
20months
months
18
18months
months
102
102
87
87
93
93
100
100
<new>
<new>
99
10
10
88 11
11months
months
99 88months
months
10
10 20
20months
months
11
11
12
12
11
11
12
12
77months
months
99months
months
113
113
96
96
80
80
70
70
13
13
14
14
13
13
14
14
10
10months
months
11
11months
months
83
83
84
84
60
60
50
50
15
15
16
16
15
15
16
16
11
11months
months
10
10months
months
102
102
100
100
17
17
18
18
17
17
18
18
12
12months
months
42
42months
months
105
105
57
57
19
19
20
20
19
19
20
20
17
17months
months
11
11months
months
121
121
86
86
21
21
21
21 10
10months
months
100
100
104
104
94
94
Scatter
ScatterPlot
Plot
100
100
90
90
Influential?
Explanatory vs.
Response
The Distinction Between Explanatory and Response
variables is essential in regression.
Switching the distinction results in a different
least-squares regression line.
Hubble
Hubble1929
1929data
data
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
00
-200
-200
-400
-400
Scatter
ScatterPlot
Plot
Hubble
Hubble1929
1929data
data
2.2
2.2
Scatter
ScatterPlot
Plot
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
Correlation
Beer
Beerand
andBlood
BloodAlcohol
Alcohol
0.20
0.20
0.18
0.18
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.14
0.12
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
Scatter
ScatterPlot
Plot
Collection
Collection11
55
00
-5-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
Scatter
ScatterPlot
Plot
Coefficient of
Determination
The coefficient
of determination, r , describes the
2
Scatter
ScatterPlot
Plot
Cautions
Correlation and Regression are NOT RESISTANT
to outliers and Influential Points!
Correlations based on averaged data tend to
be higher than correlations based on all raw
data.
Extrapolating beyond the observed data can
result in predictions that are unreliable.
Correlation vs.
Consider the Causation
following historical data:
Collection
Collection11
Year
Year
11
22
33
44
55
66
77
88
99
10
10
Ministers
Ministers
1860
63
1860
63
Rum
<new>
Rum
<new>
8376
8376
1865
1865
1870
1870
48
48
53
53
6406
6406
7005
7005
1875
1875
1880
1880
64
64
72
72
8486
8486
9595
9595
1885
1885
1890
1890
80
80
85
85
10643
10643
11265
11265
1895
1895
1900
1900
76
76
80
80
10071
10071
10547
10547
1905
1905
1910
1910
83
83
105
105
11008
11008
13885
13885
1915
1915
140
140
18559
18559
Collection
Collection11
20000
20000
18000
18000
16000
16000
16000
16000
14000
14000
14000
14000
12000
12000
12000
12000
10000
10000
10000
10000
8000
8000
8000
8000
6000
6000
6000
4000
6000
4000
4000
2000
4000
2000
2000
00
2000
00
Scatter
ScatterPlot
Plot
11
11
12
12
Summary
Scatter Plot
Scatter Plot
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
50
50
10
10
40
40
0
0
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Scatter Plot
Scatter Plot
The
TheEndangered
EndangeredManatee
Manatee
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
00
Scatter
ScatterPlot
Plot