Famous Expert Systems

Before expert systems ("in the beginning...")

Detailed Operation Procedures (DOP's): used by aeronautics industry and
NASA, they are expert knowledge codified in written form.
- Not implemented on a computer. However, using a DOP is like manually
following an algorithm by hand
(ignizio p.49)

Heuristic programming: use heuristics to solve large, complex

computational problems (early 1960's)
- Controversy whether expert systems are just examples of heuristic
programming

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1. DENDRAL
First expert system
Project began at Stanford in mid 1960's, and is still being used.
Domain: Organic chemistry - mass spectrometry
Task: identify molecular structure of unknown compounds
from mass spectra data
Input: Histogram giving mass number/intensity pairs
Output: Description of structure of the compound
Architecture: plan-generate-test with constrained heuristic search
Tools: production rules implemented in Lisp
Results: "Discovery" of knowledge engineering.
Many published results.

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DENDRAL

Winston

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DENDRAL

Winston

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DENDRAL

Winston p. 200

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DENDRAL
Procedure:
1. Spectra data given as input
2. Preliminary analysis determines
- necessary compounds -- spectra data
- forbidden compounds -- spectra data, expert knowledge
3. Generate and test:

a) structure enumerator: can generate all possible compounds

- Takes necessary and forbidden lists, and creates a new possible
compound
- output is formula
b) spectra synthesizer: generates spectra data for this compound
c) matcher - matches synthesized spectra with actual one
- compound with best fit is the one

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Note: all compounds checked. Complexity reduced because of the

pruning done in step 2
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DENDRAL
Example rule for analyzer:

Winston 201

Matcher is involved: needs expert knowledge in knowing when some

peaks are more important than others

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2. MACSYMA
Developed at MIT since 1968 onwards
Domain: high-performance symbolic math (algebra, calculus,
differential equations,...)
Task: carry out complex mathematical derivations
Input: formulae and commands (interactive)
Output: Solutions to tough problems
Method: Brute force (expert techniques are encoded as algorithm)
Architecture: programmed in Lisp (300,000 lines of code)
Results: Widely used, powerful system.
Newest version: Maxima
- Free! Open source.
- works on Windows, linux, MacOS
- maxima.sourceforge.net
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MACSYMA

p.136-7 Harmon

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3. Hearsay I and II
Developed at Carnegie-Mellon in late 1960's
Domain: speech understanding for simple database query
Task: Using specific vocabulary and grammar criteria, generate
correct speech recognition
Input: Speech wave
Output: Ordered list of hypotheses of what was said, plus database query
based on best guess
Architecture: Opportunistic, agenda-based reasoning, using "blackboard"
to record hypotheses from multiple independent knowledge sources
(Definition: Blackboard: common working memory for independent systems)
Tools: Programmed in SAIL

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HEARSAY
Results:
- proved feasibility of automated speech recognition
- pioneering effort in system architecture techniques
- blackboard for multiple knowledge sources
- power of symbolic computation over purely statistical ones
- Spawned other expert system projects.

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HEARSAY

Harmon 138

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HEARSAY

Harmon 139

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4. INTERNIST/CADUCEUS
Developed at U of Pittsburgh in early 1970's thru mid 80s
Domain: diagnostic aid for all of internal medicine
Task: medical diagnosis given interactive input
Input: Answers to interactive queries
Output: ordered set of diagnoses
Architecture: forward chaining with "scores" for diseases
Tools: programmed in Lisp
Results: ambitious project; inspired other systems

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INTERNIST

p.141-144 Harmon

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INTERNIST

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5. MYCIN
Stanford U in mid 70's
Domain: Medical diagnosis for bacterial and meningitis infections
Task: interview physician, make diagnosis and therapy recommendations
Input: Answers to queries
Output: Ordered set of diagnoses and therapies
Architecture: rule-based exhaustive backward chaining with uncertainty
Tools: programmed in LISP (shell called EMYCIN -- empty MYCIN)
Results: not in general use, but was ground-breaking work in
diagnostic consultation systems
Made acceptable diagnoses at a rate of 69% (better than human experts!)

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MYCIN

p.16-20 Harmon

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6. Prospector
Developed at SRI international in late 1970's
Domain: exploratory geology
Task: evaluate geological sites
Input: geological survey data
Output: maps and site evaluations
Architecture: rule-like semantic net with uncertainty
Tools: programmed in LISP, and is a descendant of MYCIN
Results: In one blind test, the program identified a previously
undiscovered site, thus showing commercial viability of expert systems.

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PROSPECTOR

p. 146 Harmon

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PROSPECTOR

p. 145 Harmon

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7. PUFF
Developed at Stanford in 1979
Domain: Diagnosis of obstructive airway diseases using MYCIN's
inference engine and a new knowledge base
Task: Take data from instruments and dialog, and diagnose type and
severity of disease
Input: instruments, queries
Output: Written report for physician to review and annotate
Architecture:
uncertainty

rule-based, exhaustive backward chaining with

Tools: EMYCIN (Empty MYCIN)

Results: Reports correct 86% of the time. A 55-rule system is in
daily use, running in Basic!

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PUFF

p.150 Harmon

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PUFF

p. 151 Harmon

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8. XCON (R1)
Originally called R1, developed at Carnegie Mellon and DEC in late 70's
Domain: configure computer hardware
Task: configure VAX systems by projecting the need for subassemblies given
a high-level description of the system
Input: Vax system description
Output: list of parts, accessories, and a plan for assembly
Architecture: forward-chained, rule-based, with almost no backtracking
Tools: OPS5, a production system tool
Results: Used by DEC and performed better than previous experts (since fired)
- by 1986, processed total of 80,000 orders with 95-98% accuracy
- saved DEC $25 million a year

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XCON

p. 156 Harmon

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XCON
as of 1991, XCON has 8000 (!) production rules
a serious problem has developed: maintenance
has been said that XCON replaced 75 experts with 150 XCON maintainers
shows the need for developing better maintenance systems for large
expert systems (and other large software systems)

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Some other famous systems

DELTA/CATS:
- diagnose and repair diesel locomotives
- developed in LISP, but ported to FORTRAN (a common phenomenon)
DRILLING ADVISOR:
- diagnose oil drilling problems
- rule-based, exhaustive backward chaining with uncertainty, frames
GENESIS:
- designs molecular genetics experiments and procedures
- was used by over 500 research scientists
GATES:

- airline gate assignment and tracking system

- used by TWA at JFK airport
- implemented in Prolog on microcomputers
- access database for 100 daily flights, and creates gate assignment in 30 seconds
(experts took between 10 and 15 hours, with 1 hour per modification)
( possible extension: lost luggage!)
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Conclusion

p. 170 Harmon

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A typical industrial system

(Byte, Oct 1994) Picker International

Problem domain:
Picker produce sophisticated medical diagnostic machines
needed a system for use by their service technicians
tasks:
intelligent service expert system: full explanation, graphical UI,
hypertext user manual
onsite access to main service DB of user site data
capture site data: feedback for knowledge base improvements
use site data to improve products, service effectiveness in future

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System

Built with Carnegie Groups TestBuilder system

shell system geared towards diagnostic systems
systems are typically: hierarchical, rule-based, object-oriented
(frames)
multi-level explanation important
rule-level: how, why
deeper level: hypertext manuals (interactive, graphical)

TestBuilder is interactive KB editor and tester

Final system is compiled into DOS executable form
TestView is run-time system
Compared with general-purpose shells, this system is specialized
inference focusses on problem right away, via menus or natural
language input
completeness sacrificed for efficient focus on possible problem

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Conclusions from Pickers system

Incremental design of system

get prototype running on initial problems
build onto it
Can help if Knowledge engineer has domain knowledge
caveat: here, KE is already computer-oriented
caveat: problem domain well-adapted to Testbuilder paradigm
On-site capture of new data permits continual update of system
for free
empirical data capture and DB useful for KB, as well as products
themselves
integrated standalone systems (eg. laptops) very handy!
CD ROMs also can prevent need to download data

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