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Mean-Reverting Models in Financial and Energy Markets: Anatoliy Swishchuk
Mean-Reverting Models in Financial and Energy Markets: Anatoliy Swishchuk
Mean-Reverting Models in Financial and Energy Markets: Anatoliy Swishchuk
in
Financial and Energy Markets
Anatoliy Swishchuk
Mathematical and
Computational Finance
Laboratory,
Department of Mathematics and
Statistics, U of C
5th North-South Dialog,
Edmonton, AB, April 30, 2005
Outline
Mean-Reverting Models (MRM): Deterministic
vs. Stochastic
MRM in Finance: Variances (Not Asset Prices)
MRM in Energy Markets: Asset Prices
Some Results: Swaps, Swaps with Delay, Option
Pricing Formula (one-factor models)
Drawback of One-Factor Models
Future Work
Mean-Reversion Effect
Violin (or Guitar) String Analogy: if we pluck the
violin (or guitar) string, the string will revert to its
place of equilibrium
To measure how quickly this reversion back to
the equilibrium location would happen we had to
pluck the string
Similarly, the only way to measure mean
reversion is when the variances of asset prices
in financial markets and asset prices in energy
markets get plucked away from their non-event
levels and we observe them go back to more or
less the levels they started from
Mean-Reverting Models in
Financial Markets
Stock (asset) Prices follow
geometric Brownian motion
The Variance of Stock Price
follows Mean-Reverting Models
Mean-Reverting Models in
Energy Markets
or
or
Swaps
Security-a piece of paper representing a promise
Basic Securities
Stock (a security
representing partial
ownership of a
company)
Bonds (bank
accounts)
Derivative Securities
Option (right but not obligation to
do something in the future)
Forward contract (an agreement
to buy or sell something in a
future date for a set price:
obligation)
Swaps-agreements between
two counterparts to exchange
cash flows in the future to a
prearrange formula: obligation
where
is a stock volatility ,
Variance Swaps
A Variance Swap is a forward contract on realized
variance.
Its payoff at expiration is equal to (Kvar is the
delivery price for variance and N is the notional
amount in $ per annualized variance point)
Volatility Swaps
A Volatility Swap is a forward contract on
realized volatility.
Its payoff at expiration is equal to:
and
Calculation E[V]
Calculation of Var[V]
(continuation)
After calculations:
Finally we obtain:
Numerical Example 1:
S&P60 Canada Index
Logarithmic Returns
Logarithmic returns are used in practice to define discrete
sampled variance and volatility
Logarithmic Returns:
where
Statistics on Log-Returns of
S&P60 Canada Index for 5 years
(1997-2002)
Stock Price
Initial Data
deterministic function
where
and
Parameters:
Transformations:
0.9
0.8
0.7
C(T)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
T
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Comparison
(approximation vs. explicit formula)
Conclusions
Variances of Asset Prices in Financial Markets follow
Mean-Reverting Models
Asset Prices in Energy Markets follow Mean-Reverting
Models
We can price variance and volatility swaps for an asset in
financial markets (for Heston model + models with delay)
We can price options for an asset in energy markets
Drawbacks: 1) one-factor models (L is a constant)
2) W(phi_t^-1)-Gaussian process
Future work: 1) consider two-factor models: S (t) and L
(t) (L->L (t)) (possibly with jumps) (analytical approach)
2) 1) with probabilistic approach
3) to study the process W(\phi_t^-1)
Future work I.
(Joint Working Paper with T. Ware:
Analytical Approach (Integro - PDE),
Whittaker functions)
Future Work II
(Probabilistic Approach: Change of
Time Method).
Acknowledgement
Id like to thank very much to Robert Elliott,
Tony Ware, Len Bos, Gordon Sick, and
Graham Weir for valuable suggestions and
comments, and to all the participants of the
Lunch at the Lab (weekly seminar, usually
Each Thursday, at the Mathematical and
Computational Finance Laboratory) for
discussion and remarks during all my talks in
the Lab.
Id also like to thank very much to PIMS for
partial support of this talk