Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Population Growth and Economic Development
Population Growth and Economic Development
Development: Causes,
Consequences, and
Controversies
Population
As the 21st century begun, the worlds population
was estimated to be almost 6.1 billion. Projection by
UN places the figure at more than 9.1 billion by
2050 before reaching a maximum of 11 lb by 2200
Population
Does economic growth/ development
precede PG or PG is a necessary condition for
economic development to take place?
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
40
30
Birthrate
20
Death rate
10
Stage I
0
1800
Stage II
1840 1850
Stage III
1890 1910
2000
Future
Year
The Demographic Transition in Western Europe
17
Before their
economic
modernization
these countries
for centuries
had stable or
very slow
growing
population as
combination of
high birth rate
and high death
rate. This is
stage 1
18
In the figure
before early
19th century,
birth rates
hovered
around 35 per
1000 while
death rate
fluctuated
around 30 per
1000. This
resulted in PG
rate of around
5 per 1000 or
less than 0.5%
19
Stage 2,
The beginning of
WE s DT, was
initiated around the
first quarter of 19th
century. When
modernization,
associated with
better public health,
healthier diets,
higher incomes and
other improvements
in life led to marked
reduction in the
death rate or in
mortality that
gradually raised the
life expectancy from
40 to over 60 years
20
However the
decline in
death rate was
not
immediately
accompanied
by a decline in
fertility. As a
result the
growing
divergence
between high
birth rates and
falling death
rates leads to
a sharp
increase in PG
compared to
21
So this stage 2
thus marks the
beginning of the
DT
Finally stage 3
was entered when
the forces and
influences of
modernization and
development
caused the
beginning of a
decline in fertility,
falling birth rates
converged with
lower death rates,
leaving little or no
population growth
22
23
50
Case B
40
Birthrate
30
Case A
20
Case B
10
Case A
Stage I
1900
Stage II
1950
Death rate
Stage III
1965-70
Future
Year
The Demographic Transition in Developing Countries
26
50
Case B
40
Birthrat
e
30
Case A
20
Case B
10
0
Case A
Stage I
1900
Stage II
1950
Death rate
Stage III
1965-70
Year
The Demographic Transition in Developing
Countries
Futur
e
27
Given their
historically
high BR (over
40 per 1000 in
many
countries) this
has meant
that stage 2 of
the LDC DT
has been
characterized
by PG rates
well in excess
of 2% per
50
Case B
40
Birthrat
e
30
Case A
20
Case B
10
0
Case A
Stage I
1900
Stage II
1950
Death rate
Stage III
1965-70
Year
The Demographic Transition in Developing
Countries
Futur
e
28
50
Case B
40
Birthrat
e
30
Case A
20
Case B
10
0
Case A
Stage I
1900
Stage II
1950
Death rate
Stage III
1965-70
Year
The Demographic Transition in Developing
Countries
Futur
e
29
This countries
most notably
South Korea,
Taiwan, China,
Cuba, Srilanka
have thus
entered stage
3 of their DT
and have
experience
rapidly falling
rates of
overall PG
50
Case B
40
Birthrat
e
30
Case A
20
Case B
10
0
Case A
Stage I
1900
Stage II
1950
Death rate
Stage III
1965-70
Year
The Demographic Transition in Developing
Countries
Futur
e
30
Case B:
But some
developing
countries fall into
case B
After an initial
period of decline,
DR have failed to
drop further,
largely because of
the persistence of
widespread
absolute poverty
and low levels of
living and more
recently because of
AIDS epidemic
50
Case B
40
Birthrat
e
30
Case A
20
Case B
10
0
Case A
Stage I
1900
Stage II
1950
Death rate
Stage III
1965-70
Year
The Demographic Transition in Developing
Countries
Futur
e
31
Moreover
continuance of high
BR due to as a result
of these low levels of
living causes overall
PG to remain
relatively high
These countries,
including many of
those in SSA and
Middle East are still
at stage 2 of their
DT. Though fertility is
declining it remains
very high in these
part of the world
50
Case B
40
Birthrat
e
30
Case A
20
Case B
10
0
Case A
Stage I
1900
Stage II
1950
Death rate
Stage III
1965-70
Year
The Demographic Transition in Developing
Countries
Futur
e
32
The Malthusian
Population Trap
35
Because the growth in food supplies could not keep pace with
the burgeoning population, per capita incomes (defined in an
agrarian society simply as per capita food production) would
have a tendency to fall so low as to lead to a stable population
existing barely at or slightly above the subsistence level
37
38
39
Assumptions
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
51
52
55
56
Reference
57