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Binomial Distributions
Binomial Distributions
Binomial Experiments
Probability experiments for which the
results of each trial can be reduced to
two outcomes: success and failure.
When a basketball player attempts a
free throw, he or she either makes the
basket or does not.
Probability experiments such as these
are called binomial experiments.
A Binary Outcome
Description
p = P(S)
q = P(F)
Example
We pick a card from a standard deck of
cards, and note whether it is a club or not,
and replace the card. We repeat the
experiment 5 times.
n=5
p = P(S) =
q = P(F) =
Possible values of the random variable
are 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.
Binomial Experiments
Decide whether the experiment is a
binomial experiment:
A binomial experiment specify the values
of n (number of times a trial is repeated), p
(Probability of Success), q (Probability of
Failure) and list the possible values of the
random variable, x.
Example
A certain surgical procedure has an
85% chance of success.
performs
patients.
the
procedure
The
random
A doctor
on
eight
variable
Binomial Experiment
Each surgery represents one trial. There
are eight surgeries, and each surgery is
independent of the others.
Only two possible outcomes for each
surgery - either the surgery is a success or
it is a failure.
n=8
p = 0.85
q = 1 0.85 = 0.15
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Example
A jar contains five red marbles, nine blue
marbles and six green marbles.
Select
The
random
variable
P( x) Cx p q
x
n x
n!
x n x
pq
(n x)! x!
Roll 1
Roll 2
Roll 3
Frequency
# of 6s
Probability
(1)(1)(1) = 1
1/216
(1)(1)(5) = 5
5/216
(1)(5)(1) = 5
5/216
(1)(5)(5) = 25
25/216
(5)(1)(1) = 5
5/216
(5)(1)(5) = 25
25/216
(5)(5)(1) = 25
25/216
(5)(5)(5) = 125
125/216
P( x) n C x p q
x
n x
n!
p x q n x
( n x )! x!
0.347
72
can
construct
Probability Distribution.
Binomial
P(x)
0.044
0.173
0.292
0.274
0.154
0.052
0.010
0.001
P(x) = 1
Notice all the probabilities are between 0
and 1 and that the sum of the probabilities is
1.
Population Parameters of a
Binomial Distribution
Mean: = np
Variance: 2 = npq
Standard Deviation: = npq
Example
In Murree, 57% of the days in a year are cloudy.
Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation
for the number of cloudy days during the month
of June.
Mean:
= np = 30(0.57) = 17.1
Problem 1
Four fair coins are tossed simultaneously.
Find the probability function of the random
variable X = Number of Heads and compute
the probabilities of obtaining no heads,
precisely 1 head, at least 1 head, not more
than 3 heads.
Problem 2
If the Probability of hitting a target in
a single shot is 10% and 10 shots are
fired
independently.
What
is
the
Problem 3
If the Probability of hitting a target in
a single shot is 5% and 20 shots are
fired
independently.
What
is
the
Problem 5
Let X be the number of cars per minute
passing a certain point of some road
between 8 A.M and 10 A.M on a Sunday.
Assume that X has a Poisson distribution
with mean 5. Find the probability of observing
3 or fewer cars during any given minute.
Problem 7
In 1910, E. Rutherford and H. Geiger
showed experimentally that number of alpha
particles emitted per second in a radioactive
process is random variable X having a
Poisson distribution. If X has mean 0.5. What
is the probability of observing 2 or more
particles during any given second?
Problem 9
Suppose that in the production of 50
resistors, non-defective items are those that
have a resistance between 45 and 55
and
Problem 11
Let P = 1% be the probability that a
certain type of light bulb will fail in 24
hours test. Find the probability that a sign
consisting of 100 such bulbs will burn 24
hours with no bulb failures.
Problem 13
Suppose that a test for extrasensory
perception consists of naming (in any
order) 3 card randomly drawn from a
deck of 13 cards. Find the probability that
by chance alone, the person will correctly
name (a) no cards, (b) 1 Card, (c) 2
Cards, and (d) 3 cards.
P ( 2) 4 C 2 (0.41) 2 (0.59) 4 2
4!
(0.41) 2 (0.59) 4 2
( 4 2)!2!
24
(.1681)(.3481)
4
6(.1681)(.3481) .35109366
Calculator or look it up on pg. A10
#2--To find the probability that at least two women will respond yes, you can
find the sum of P(2), P(3), and P(4). Using n = 4, p = 0.41, q = 0.59 and x
=2, the probability that at least two women will respond yes is:
4 3
0.162653
#3--To find the probability that fewer than two women will respond yes, you
can find the sum of P(0) and P(1). Using n = 4, p = 0.41, q = 0.59 and x =2,
the probability that at least two women will respond yes is:
x
P(x)
0.002
0.020
0.095
0.235
0.328
0.244
0.075
Because each probability is a relative frequency, you can graph the probability
using a relative frequency histogram as shown on the next slide.
0.002
0.020
0.095
0.235
0.328
0.244
0.075
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Households
Quiz # 3
32 CE(B) 12 NOV 2012
Let P = 1% be the probability that a certain
type of light bulb will fail in 24 hours test.
Find the probability that a sign consisting
of 10 such bulbs will burn 24 hours with no
bulb failures.
(3 Marks)
Write Probability Distribution Function for
Multinomial
and
Hypergeometric
distributions.
(2 Marks)