Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Week 6 - Result Analysis 2b
Week 6 - Result Analysis 2b
RESULT AND
ANALYSIS
(part 2)
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
A hypothesis
is a conjecture about a population
parameter. This conjecture may or may not
be true.
An educated guess based on theory and
background information
A proposed explanation for a phenomenon.
Hypothesis Testing is a process of using
sample data and statistical procedures to
decide whether to reject or not reject a
hypothesis (statement) about a population
parameter value.
Examples
Whether seat belts will reduce the
severity of injuries caused by accident
Whether the public prefer certain
colour in the fabric lining
Whether adding a chemical will
improve water quality
The average life expectancy in the
next decade for man will be more than
100 years
Education increases income
education increases
income
significant difference
A significant difference occurs if the
difference between the hypothesized (null)
value and the sample statistic value is too
large to be attributed to chance. A
significant difference strongly suggests that
the null hypothesis is not true.
Significant difference at p<0.05 means,
95% of the time the sample mean is larger
than the hypothesised value.
Solution:
State the hypotheses. The first step is to state
Solution:
Example problem
Suppose that in a particular geographic region, the
mean and standard deviation of scores on a
reading test are 100 points, and 12 points,
respectively. Our interest is in the scores of 55
students in a particular school who received a
mean score of 96. We can ask whether this mean
score is significantly lower than the regional
mean that is, are the students in this school
comparable to a simple random sample of 55
students from the region as a whole, or are their
scores surprisingly low. Calculate z score?
solution
We begin by calculating the standard error
problem
solution
1. Calculate (SE) of the mean:
18 18
SE
2
n
81 9
Next we calculate the z-score
M 92 120 28
Z
3.11
SE
2
9
solution
2. The answer is A. This problem can be solved by converting
Fred and Wilma's raw scores into z-scores. To do this, we use
the z-score equation: To do this, we use the z-score equation:
z = (M-) / sd
where z is the z-score, x is the runner's raw score, M is the
mean finishing time, and sd is the standard deviation of
finishing times.
Solving first for Fred's z-score, we get
z = (M-) / sd = ( 61-55) / 10 = 0.60
Using the same approach to compute Wilma's z-score, we get
z = (M-) / sd = ( 51-55) / 10 = - 0.4
Based on z-scores, we can order the runners from fastest to
slowest as follows: Wilma (z = -0.4), Barney (z = -0.3), Fred (z
= 0.6), and Betty (z = 0.7).
problem
Each year, a national achievement test is
solution
The correct answer is (E). From the z-score
equation, we know
z = (M-) / sd
where z is the z-score, x is the value of Jane's
test score, M is the mean test score, and sd
is the standard deviation of test scores.
Solving for Jane's test score (M), we get
M = ( z * sd) + 100 = ( 1.20 * 15) + 100 =
18 + 100 = 118
2. F test
For the comparison of two variances or
standard deviations. E.g variation in
cholesterol level in man and women
Assumptions
The population from which the
samples were obtained must be
normally distributed
Samples must be independent of
each other
Example problem
Consider an experiment to
a1 a2
a3
6
8
4
5
3
4
13
9
11
8
7
12
8
12
9
11
6
8
solution
Step 1: Calculate the mean within each group:
squares:
fb = 3 1 = 2
so the between-group mean square value is
MSB = 84 / 2 = 42
910=
-1
-1
-1
=2
value is
2. t-test
To test the difference between two
means for small independent sample
(n<30)
Assumptions
Sample must be independent
The populations are normally
distributed
CORRELATION AND
REGRESSION
Perfect Correlation
If there is any change in the value of one variable, the
value of the others variable is changed in a fixed
proportion, the correlation between them is said to be
perfect correlation. It is indicated numerically as +1 and
-1.
Perfect Positive Correlation:
If the values of both the variables are move in
same direction with fixed proportion is called perfect
positive correlation. It is indicated numerically as +1.
Perfect Negative Correlation:
If the values of both the variables are move in
opposite direction with fixed proportion is called perfect
negative correlation. It is indicated numerically as -1.
Coefficient of Correlation
Examples of Correlation
Calculate and analyze the correlation
Solution:
The necessary calculation is given below:
Problem
From the following data, compute the
Solution:
LINEAR REGRESSION
If the plot of n pairs of data (x , y) for an
experiment appear to indicate a "linear
relationship" between y and x, then the
method of least squares may be used to write
a linear relationship between x and y.
The least square regression line for the set of n
data points is given by
y = ax + b
where a and b are given by
Example
Consider the following set of points: {(-2 , -1) ,
(1 , 1) , (3 , 2)}
a) Find the least square regression line for the
given data points.
b) Plot the given points and the regression line
in the same rectangular system of axes.
Solutions
a) Let us organize the data in a table.
Problems
SOLUTION
Solution
Solution
Multiple Regression
Several independent variables and one dependent
NON-PARAMETRIC TEST
Z, f and t-tests are parametric when data are
normally distributed
When data is not normally distributed NonParametric test is more appropriate.
Also called Distribution Free Statistics
Advantages &
Disadvantages
USING MODELS
Be sure with data requirement and the
need of the study
Consists of 4 main steps
Model formulation
Model optimization
Model calibration/verification
Model Application
Model Formulation
Involved empirical and theoretical evidences
Make assumptions to reduce the problem to a
manageable form (simplification of process)
Model optimization
Regression analysis analytical way
Subjective optimization based on experience of the
modelers
Model Calibration
Changing the coefficient
Reduce error between observed and predicted values
Model Application
After the model has been calibrated and validated