Russian

Syria

interests

in

Current
Highlight
of
Russian-Pakistan relations
Hasnat Sher

Russian-Pakistan Relations
China paved ways for Pakistan membership
and helped in normalizing relations with
Russia.
Russia also helped in getting observer status
at SCO (Shanghai cooperation organization).
Both States started giving importance to
each other as strategic partners.
Russia offered to help in Re-organization of
PSL (Pakistan Steel Mills) by investment.
(worth around $ 2 billion)

Contd
Both Countries signed Gas pipeline
agreement from Gwadar to Lahore (IPGP).
(worth $ 2-3 billion)
Russia offered support in military
technology. (fighter planes, helicopters and
tanks)
Russia view Pakistan as a potential market
for arms, energy and Infrastructure.
Free Trade Agreement is in process of
negotiations.

Contd
Russia has agreed to invest in Oil & Gas
sector of Pakistan.
Pakistan wants access to textile, surgical
equipment markets of Russia.
Pakistan has also offered Russia to invest in
CPEC and TAPI gas line projects.

Russia- Syria Relations

How it Started
In 1893, aconsular officeof the
Russian Empirewas established in
Damascus (Ottoman Syria), way before
dismemberment of Ottoman Empire.
Soon after independence from France in
1946, A non-aggression pact signed on April
10, 1950 further cemented SovietSyrian
relations.
Syria served as an ally to theSoviet Union
in opposition to the western powers, and a
stronger political bond grew

Contd

Russia's only Mediterranean naval basefor its

Black Sea Fleet is located in the Syrian port of
Tartus build during 1970s.
In 1970, a new coup dtatbrought
Hafez Assadto power in Syria.
Thousands of Syrian military officers and
educated professionals studied in Russia
during PresidentHafez al-Assad's presidency
(19712000), and such connections have
resulted in many marriages and mixed
families.

Contd
Hafez al-Assaddied on 10 June 2000, after
30 years in power. The Parliament amended
the constitution, reducing the mandatory
minimum age of the President from 40 to
34, which allowed Hafez son,Bashar
al-Assad, to become legally eligible for
nomination by the ruling Ba'ath party. On 10
July 2000, Bashar al-Assad was elected
President by referendum in which he ran
unopposed, garnering 97.29% of the vote

Russia Interests in Syria

Russia forgave around $ 10 billion loan of

Syria.
Russia exports to Syria is around $1.8
billion yearly and total Russian investment
in Syria is around $ 20 billion (total GDP is
around $ 65 billion).
Russia has substantial amounts of
investment in infrastructure, energy and
tourism.

Russia Interests in Syria

Russia can keep on exporting ARMS to
Syria.
Religious extremists and terrorists, which
are involved in destabilizing the Russian
territories of Chechnya, Daghestan, and
parts of Central Asia are currently busy in
Syria.
Russia wants these terrorists to stay in
Syria, and want to fight them in Syrian land.

Contd
Russia in 2011 and 2012 used its vetopower in theUN Security Councilagainst
resolutions promoted by Western and Arab
countries, to prevent possible sanctions or
military intervention against the Syrian
government (Assads Regime)
Supplied Military support during Civil war.

Local Blocks

Government, Army

Opposition
Free Syrian Army (Not under government control, HQ
in Istanbul)
SNC (Syrian National Council; HQ in Istanbul by
exiled syrians)
NCC (National Co ordination Council; 13 local leftist
parties)

Global Blocks
Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, supporting Syrian
Government. (Provided Military and Foreign
relation support)
West along with KSA and Qatar Supporting
uprising. (Financial support to ISIS, Daesh
and Civil uprising etc)
Russia & China advised government to start
negotiations with opposition.

Syrian war
Russia & US conducting military operation
against extremists and both want each
other to stop.
US blamed Russia for attacking opposition.
Russia Blamed US for attacking
government.
Russia offered peace talks with US & UK,
both declined the Russian offer.
Government is Pro-Iran and KSA wants to
reduce Iranian influence.

Contd
US close ties with Iran compelled KSA to
extend hand towards Russia for Military
support.
Russia also encouraged KSA hoping for a
new arms market.
Russia main interest is to establish itself as
a decisive power in the world to counter US,
and to protect its interest in world after end
of coldwar.

Current Status of Situation in

Syria

The UNs (Annans) six-point peace

plan
1. Syrian-led political process to
address the aspirations and
concerns of the Syrian people
2. UN-supervised cessation of armed
violence in all its forms by all parties
to protect civilians
3. All parties to ensure provision of
humanitarian assistance to all areas
affected by the fighting, and
implement a daily two-hour
humanitarian pause
4. Authorities to intensify the pace and
scale of release of detained persons
5. Authorities to ensure freedom of
movement throughout the country
for journalists
6. Authorities to respect freedom of
association and the right to
demonstrate peacefully

Syria Observer Mission

UN Security Council resolution 2042

approves a team of up to 300
unarmed observers
As of this week there are about 100
unarmed observers in Syria
Violence continues despite the
presence of observers.
Even a convoy including observers
escorted by the Syrian Army was
attacked on May 9th.
Currently, bomb attacks are on the
rise, and pitched battles are much
less frequent than one month ago

16

Likely outcomes ahead for

Syria

Unrealistic expectations on all

sides

Current situation In Syria

The regime wants the opposition to surrender

Many Syrians bank on international intervention
Some think Russia and the West will go through a
rapprochement
Some thing the opposition will be eradicated, and
the former status quo will return
SNC chairman Burhan Ghalioun has had
trouble uniting the opposition, and has
recently changed his posture in support of
armed opposition.

18

The Likely Scenario for Syria and

the International Players

The Assad regime is going to want to drag out

any process of diplomacy or reform. Theyll want
to move the emphasis from regime change to
regime concessions. It will do this with some of
the following:

Annan will rely on Russia to move things forward.

However, the regime will, in turn:

Slow all diplomatic action to a snails pace

Slow all implementation steps
Exploit spikes in violence to stall progress

Respond somewhat positively, because of Russia, to

reward Russia for its support

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have pledged to arm the

opposition, but its unlikely that they will manage
to get arms or support to the opposition (unless
Jordan helps but uncertain)

19

The Likely Scenario for other

Regional Players

Likely role of regional players:

Lebanon wants to remain uninvolved, in order to preserve

the status quo in Lebanon
Turkey wants to avoid participating in a proxy war which
could backfire on its own territory (e.g. Kurdish aspirations
for independence); may tolerate some arms smuggling, but
isnt anxious to give the Gulf states much leverage in Syria;
will likely want to remain at arms length, unless the US
exerts more pressure
Iraq not keen to have a Sunni-led opposition gaining the
upper hand in Syria, so unlikely to allow arms over its
border to Syria
Jordan probably wants to avoid getting pulled into the
conflict, despite possible economic aid from Saudi Arabia
and others

The US seems interested in a division of labour between

the West and the Arab world

US provision of intelligence and communications support to

the opposition
Gulf States provision of weapons to the rebels
Money for defectors
Greater accountability for perpetrators of violence

20

Thank You