Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DP Overview
DP Overview
March 2003
Training Agenda
Accenture 2003
Objectives
Main Goals of This Section
To understand Demand Planning as an accurate forecasting tool in the APO context.
To know Demand Planning main features, in concrete:
Its architecture, data storage and representation attributes
Its main tools (Planning Toolbox, Planning Environment, Accuracy Analysis)
The different forecasting methods available
To visualize how DP applies to a real case (Sara Lee).
To be aware of main considerations and complexity factors when implementing Demand
Planning.
To get familiar with the look of DP and its basic functions through a demo and practising with
simple exercises.
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Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
DP Exercises
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Information
Collaborative
forecasts
Flexible views
Graphics
Promotional planning
Life cycle management
Cannibalization
Accuracy reporting
Anticipation of
Future Demand
Cost
POS data
Nielsen / IRI data
...
Statistical Methods
Multi-model approach
Average models
Exponential smoothing
Causal factors
Trend dampening
Model combination
Pick best
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BUY
YEARS
QUARTERS
Customer Service
Negotiations
Sourcing
Territory Planning
Production
Planning
DAYS
Planning
Procurement
Material
Inventory
Tracking
B2B Exchanges
C
U
S
Material Requirements
R
HOURS
Demand
Sales
Planning
Forecasting
APO DP
Inventory
Target
Setting
Supply Demand
Matching
Materials
Planning
SELL
HOLD
Supply Contract
WEEKS
MOVE
U
MONTHS
MAKE
DESIGN
Detailed
Production
Scheduling
Manufacturing
Execution
System
Product
Allocation
Transport
Planning
Load
Planning
T
O
M
Distribution
Requirements
Planning
Available to
Promise
E
R
In-transit &
Production
Activity
Control
On-hand Inventory
Tracking
Contract
Manufacturers
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3PLs / 4PLs
Order Management
Channel
Partners
B2B Exchanges
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Planning Views
GUI
Planning &
Analysis
Engine
Data Mart
OLAP
Processor
Business
Planning
Library
Statistical
Forecasting
Toolbox
Planning Area
Time
Series
Catalog
Notes
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Facts
Aug.
Sept.
Hierarchies
Cust
P
ome eri
o
rd
124
Regions
Material
Attributes
Life Cycle
time sequence
203
Product
Groups
Promotion
Forecast
00
01
02
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N
o
t
e
s
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Dimensions
Facts
Aug.
Sept.
Hierarchies
Cust
P
ome eri
o
rd
124
Regions
Material
Attributes
Life Cycle
time sequence
203
Product
Groups
Promotion
Forecast
00
01
02
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N
o
t
e
s
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Forecasting
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65
75
85
60
Unit Sales
50F
Feb.
Mar.
April
May
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June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Accenture 2003
Manufacturing
Retailer
POS
POS
Data
Data
Consumer
Consumer
Consumerdemand
demand
Advertisement
Promotion
Sell Through
Sell In
Competitor Promotion
sales
Sales
Sales
History
History
++Replenishment
Replenishmentlead
leadtime
time
++Forward
Forwardbuying
buying
==Retailer
RetailerDemand
Demand
time
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Profit
Promotion
Promotion patterns
-10%
97
98
99
00
Price
Planner
Quantity
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What is the cannibalization effect of a new product with existing products? Etc.
DP can represent the launch, growth and discontinuation phases by using phase-in, phase-out and like
modeling profiles (or combining them):
A phase-in profile reduces demand history by ever increasing percentages during a specific period or
periods (simulating upward sales curve launch and growth phases)
A phase-out profile reduces demand forecast of a product by ever decreasing percentages (simulating
downward sales curve discontinuation phase)
Like modeling creates a forecast using the historical data on a product with a similar demand behavior
(new products and products with short life cycles)
Product Launch
End of Life
Aggregate
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Forecast
...
Marketing Forecast
Combine &
Reconcile
n
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Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
DP Exercises
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Initial training
(central to local)
GAP estimation
(central)
GAPs approval
(project management)
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Strategic
Tactical
Operational
AOP generation
Monthly Cycle
Weekly Cycle
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Process
Process
AOP/Outlook generation:
APO
CO-PA
(R/3)
Volumes
Volumes from
fromAPO
APO DP
DP
Convert
Convert volume
volume to
to
value
value
Responsible
Responsible
Demand
Planning
Finance
Adjust
Adjust Volume
Volume
Send
SendAdjusted
AdjustedVolume
Volume
to
toAPO
APO
APO
Run
Run SNP
SNPwith
with
Adjusted
volume
Adjusted volume
Volume
Volume adjusted
adjusted after
after
SNP
SNP
CO-PA
(R/3)
Convert
Convert volume
volume to
to
value
value
Supply
Planning
Finance
Adjust
Adjust Volume
Volume
Interface SAP - APO
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Final
FinalAOP
AOPvolume
volume sent
sent
to
APO
to APO
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S&OP high
high Level flow
Updated
Demand
Forecast
Business
Group
Review
Euro
Euro
S&OP scope
Customer
Customer
Service
Service
Review
Review
Local
LocalS&OP
S&OP
Meeting
Meeting
OpCo
Demand
Plan
Local
S&OP
Review
Euro &
Local
Production
Plan
A PO
Local
Local
Demand
Demand
Meeting
Meeting
Aggregate
OpCo
Demand
Plans
Capacity
Check and
Inventory
DP scope
S&OP scope
S&OP scope
with impact
with impact
on DP
on DP
Euro
Euro
S&OP
S&OP
Meeting
Meeting
Update
UpdateSupply
SupplyPlan
Plan
Euro
Supply
Review
Euro
Demand
Balancing
Aggregate
Supply
Plan
Review
Supply
Chain
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M.1. Generate
KPIs
Demand
meeting
Customer service
review
Demand Meeting
M.2.KPIs analysis
M.5. Create
Demand Forecast
Define Supply
Plan at Euro
Level
M.3. Updated
Promotional
Planning
Local
S&OP
meeting
M.6. Update
Demand
Forecast
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Monthly Cycle
18 months in months
6 months in weeks
Forecast
Baseline +
Promotions
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Non-clean
history (no
promotions)
Horizon
Accenture 2003
Risks
identified?
identified?
Communicate
Communicate
risks
risks to Sales &
Marketing
Update
Update demand
demand
forecast
forecast in
in APO
APO
Update
Update demand
demand
forecast
forecast with
promotional
promotional
activities
activities
Changes
Changes in
in
Promotional
Promotional
Planning?
Planning?
Provide
Provide changes
changes in
in
promotional
promotional
planning
Communicate
Communicate
changes
changes to
to Supply
Supply
Planning
Planning
Yes
No
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Brand
Sub
Brand
Concept
Business
line
Promo
-tional
Type
Kit
Process
Type
Type 1
Variety
Category
Segment
Sub
Segment
Example of
Planning level
Product
Family
Product
Format
SKU
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Level
Business Line
Body Care
Household
Coffee
Tea
Body Care
Household
Coffee&Tea
Category
Bath&Shower
Airfresheners
Coffee
Tea
Segment
Bath
Airfresheners
Roasted Coffee
Hot Tea
Sub-segment
Bath
Home
Product Family
Herbs
Starter
Standard
Regular
Brand
Radox
Ambi-Pur
Douwe Egberts
Pickwick
Original
Perfum dinterieur
Desert
Ambi-Pur Perfum
dinterieur Anti tabacco
-
Douwe Egberts
dessert
Ground
Pickwick English
Variety
Anti-tabacco
caffeinated
English
Concept
bottle
electrical
Brick pack
box
standard
standard
10% free
standard
500 ml
250 gr
80 * 2
Ambi-Pur Perfum
dinterieu Antitabacco starter
electrical
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Sub-brand
Product
Process Type
Packaging Type
Product Type
Format
SKU
Geographic dimension and characteristics are usually based on the supply network
Factories
Lowest Point of
Delivery
DC
Clients
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APO Supply
Network
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Disaggregation
Disaggregation
Monthly cycle
Monthly cycle
Add Events
Add Events
Phase in/out
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
Update Forecast
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Create consensus
Create
consensus
(local S&OP)
(local S&OP)
Accenture 2003
Add Events
Monthly cycle
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
The lowest level of detail of the forecast (due to Supply Planning or S&OP
requirements) is:
Send forecast to
Supply Planning
Format Level
Forecast Level
SKU Level
32.000
12.000
72.000 DE Dessert
250g
23.000
17.000
15.000 5.000
4.000
1.300
SKU/Customer
Customer
Level
6.000 DE Dessert
500g
2.000
2.000
SKU/Customer
13.300
Auchan
17.000
Makro
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5.700
700
80.000
Intermarch
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Add Events
Monthly cycle
Update Forecast
Phase in/out
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Lifecycle
Range of
products
Strategic
Value
Customer
Collaboratio
Customer
n
concentratio
n
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
Identify the characteristics of the group of products that make them homogeneous
and are therefore suitable for aggregating
Characteristic
Description
s
Demand
Capacity to predict future
Volatility
demand
Market
Identify seasonality,
Intelligence
trend,...
Promotional Number, frequency and
activity
types of promotions
Add Events
Monthly cycle
Impact
for
selectin
g level
HomogeDemand is stable and
neous
homogeneous for the products of
this
This group
is a seasonal product. Higher Homogeneous
sales from October to March
HomogeNo customer promotions
neous
HomogeMature group
neous
Easy to
disaggreg
10 SKUs in this group
.
Shoecare is a core line and
Product A
therefore high strategic to the
Customer
No
company
customer collaboration
view
Solus listings - Safeway and
Sainsburys
High concentration (6 customers Customer
view
80% of the market)
Example: Kiwi Large Shoe
Polish 50 ml (H&BC UK)
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Add Events
Monthly cycle
Update Forecast
Phase in/out
APO provides a wide range of different statistical models and strategies to use for
forecasting (up to 35):
- Linear regression with seasonality
- Trend model
- Trend and seasonal model
- Automatic model selection,...
How to select the best model?
First step: Prior to selecting the forecasting statistical model, Demand Planners will have
to gather market intelligence to understand with pattern to find.
Second step: Test which model better fits the expected demand pattern. Take into
consideration some recommendation:
- Linear regression with seasonality model is very easy to understand by users and
require very little maintenance (preferred model by Demand Planning implementation
team)
- Most of the other models require some statistical skills by users and time consuming
maintenance by DP when reusing the same profile for next rolling forecasts
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Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
To enable forecasting to be based on a model created using history that is free of impact of
events (non repetitive history)
Any outliers (promotions) will give errors in estimating seasonal demand
To understand underlying demand e.g. seasonality and ensure that it is reflected in the forecast
Ensure that the planned contribution of events is not duplicated in the forecast
To provide a baseline forecast to account management so that they can focus on promotions
Should you always clean history?
No. Balance the amount of effort required versus the result:
- Focus on major events which significantly effect your baseline.
- Focus on A category products.
- If events are repetitive in type and in time then the user could decide not to clean history.
Baseline
Sales history
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Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
Total history
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Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
Recommendations
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
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Add Events
Monthly cycle
What is disaggregation:
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
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1000
Forecast Level
Proportional factors calculated
from history (only STD SKUs)
First disaggregation (create) is
based on proportional factors
25%
250
35%
350
400
SKU Level
1100
32%
350
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32%
350
36%
400
SKU Level
Accenture 2003
1200
32%
384
32%
36%
384
400
SKU Level
Note: Changes in the disaggregation factors only affect to the periods which Demand Planners
updated in previous rolling forecasts
April01
May01
time
1200
Brand Level
350
350
1400
25%
400
SKU Level
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350
35%
490
40%
560
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Disaggregation
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
Every month Demand Planners will update the forecast for the following 24 months
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
P2
P1
Identify
weekly
profile in
fiscal
periods
W1
W2
W3
P3
20
40
60
80
Promotions
20
20
40
80
100
Final Forecast 20
W4
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What is an event:
Disaggregation
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
An event can be defined as any activity, internal or external, that have a significant
impact on demand.
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
Types of event:
There can be many different types of events:
- Sales events (Logistics, Financial, Change in customer listings)
- Marketing events (TV campaign, Change in price policy, )
- External events (competitors actions, market tendencies,)
Why events are needed in DP:
Demand planners work with APO to get a representative Forecast Baseline (free of
impact of events)
Events can represent a very significant volume. It is therefore essential to have a
good estimation of the expected impact of sales and to apply them in APO
The information has to be provided to Demand Planners by the people that are
closer to the market and customers (Sales and Marketing)
New
Product
Introductions
Forecast
Baseline
Promotions
Sales
Obsolete
Cannibalisation Stock
effects
Updated
Forecast
Sales
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Disaggregation
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
Demand Planner will include the impact of promotions, with a significant impact on
sales, to the APO forecast
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
Every month Sales should provide to the Demand Planner the updated promotional
plan for the following 6 months, which ideally will contain:
- Description and customer target of the promotion
- Volume estimation for the SKU (or group of SKUs) on promotion
- Weekly detail of the impact (when possible)
- Estimation of the expected cannibalization (when possible)
Promotion
Promotion A
A
SKUs promoted
Sanex
Shampoo 500
ml
SKU of Douwe
Egberts
dessert
Week n
SKUs
cannibalised
Sanex
Shampoo 750
ml
700
500
500
-600
+ 15%
+20%
+5%
-20%
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SKUs of JM
dessert
100
25
-5%
- 5%
0%
Accenture 2003
Disaggregation
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
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Disaggregation
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
In some occasions an OpCo can be aware of external factors that may have
significant impact on future sales
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
An example of this can be the Coffee demand that can have a strong relationship
with:
- Price
- Price distance
- Market Share
- Market Growth
To include these events in APO forecast it is necessary to:
- Make an interpretation of external data (e.g., Nielsen)
- Estimate the impact on future demand that this situation may have
- Communicate the impacts to Demand Planners, who will include it as an
event in the promotional calendar
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What is it?
Disaggregation
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
The Product Lifecycle usually has different phases: launch, growth, maturity and
decline
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
Demand Planners need to take product lifecycle into account when forecasting,
especially in the launch and decline phases
Alternatives in APO
APO DP provides different alternatives to deal with lifecycle management:
- Like modelling - Choose a product similar in behaviour to the new product
introduction and use its launch profile to base your forecast on (or % of this
profile)
- Phase-in profile - Select a product which has a similar mature sales history
and apply a profile for launch. This profile can be based on market
intelligence
- Phase-out profile - Apply a time series phase-out profile to simulate the
discontinuation of a product.
- Manual profile A profile for the product is manually entered into the system
Demand Planners will choose the best option considering the specific
characteristics of each case
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Add Events
Monthly cycle
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
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What is a job?
Disaggregation
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
APO gives the opportunity to run any process in batch jobs (i.e, run a
forecast, include impact of promotions,) and forecast by exception, making
use of alerts to identify potential forecast errors
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
Advantages of jobs:
Reduction in Demand Planner work effort
Alerts identify potential errors
Disadvantages of jobs:
Demand Planners do not see on-line the work they are doing (e.g., adding a
new promotion or disaggregate the forecast)
Maintenance of the jobs is required
Recommendation:
ABC analysis
Make an ABC analysis taking into consideration volume, value and strategic
value of each set of products.
20%
80%
80%
20%
N of SKUs Value
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Accenture 2003
What is an alert?
Disaggregation
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Add Events
Monthly cycle
Alerts in APO are customizing Warnings that a Demand Planner can use to
track results from any activity he/she performs in the system
Periods
P1
P2
P3
120
150
170
110
90
150
Phase in/out
Update Forecast
P4
220
Alert
Watch Out!!!
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Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
DP Exercises
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Lessons Learned
R/3 Integration:
Data structure between R/3 and APO should be aligned. Otherwise, interface may become very
complex. The involvement of Demand Planner in the definition of product/client hierarchy in R/3 is key
When a transactional system is already in place, using of existing data hierarchy is recommended
in order to avoid double maintenance. You should evaluate whether to keep current data structure or
design a new one
forecast
forecast
supply
forecast
supply
supply
supply
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Accenture 2003
Modelling:
Understand the process during the Detailed Design phase is key. Later modifications in APO
(characteristics, key figures, ) imply to activate and inactivate planning area, so all data is lost
(including forecast). Redoing all the data and managing several environments becomes inconvenient
and time consuming. It is recommendable to be specially aware of:
The use of attributes, characteristics and characteristics combinations
Ratios definition (the impact is less, given that extra ratios can be created)
Desaggregation strategy
Define the security model as soon as possible (in the Detailed Design phase). By doing so, we will
be able to estimate customization and planning areas creation effort properly, taking into
consideration that:
Authorization managing does not allow to restrict access by data, managing access is only
possible at the planning area level
The later may imply to multiply effort as many times as user groups are to be defined
Define desaggregation strategy as soon as possible (in Detailed Design phase):
A low level desaggregation may imply that forecast demand by client may not be much
accurate. Keep the criteria that customer suggests us to define the optimal desaggregation
level
When possible, use temporal desaggregation criteria that APO provides
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Accenture 2003
Modelling (cont.):
Providing that customer is not always capable to use complex methods, use more simple forecast
methods such as linear regression and seasonability if possible. Other methods can result in a blackbox for the customer so that they become more difficult to understand and use effectively
Knowledge transfer:
Emphasize knowledge transfer during the project life. Planners need to spend a significant amount of
time to learn and make full use of the tool (e.g. different options for desaggregation). By not
considering it, they may feel that Excel can do more than DP. Two approaches are suggested to
overcome this risk:
Provide the user a prototype so he/she may experience the tool
Create a super-user role: a competent and fully-dedicated user that will support us in training
and support tasks
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About DP functionality:
The following is a list of functional issues that complicate a DP implementation. Take special care
when explaining functionality to the customer as they may differ from SAP official version:
New product cycles: not integrated with R/3, so that product characteristics creation is manual
and tedious
New product versions: realignment and phase in phase out functionalities to manage product
versions do not work always properly
Promotions: not agile for the user, many options that are not used
Cannibalization: poor functionality, it does not fill customer requirements
Kits and Displays: does not cover dependent demand functionality properly (e.g. parent product
characteristics are transferred to dependent products while this is not always true)
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Description
It indicates the complexity of the
data structure (product/ client/
location) and the alignment with
the transactional system.
Criteria
Number of dimensions.
(product/client/location).
Sales History
N. of sources of data.
Planning Cycle
Planning frequency.
Planning Horizon
Number of months.
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Accenture 2003
Description
It indicates the complexity that
exists in the data
desaggregation .
Criteria
Number of dimensions.
(product/client/location).
Lifecycle
Management
New Customers
Introduction
Market
Frequency of development
Promotional
Promotional
Planning
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segmentation.
activity.
Accenture 2003
Description
Criteria
Statistical
Forecasting-Time
Series
Statistical
ForecastingCausal
Upload and
Evaluation of an
External Forecast
be considered.
obtaining.
Number of forecasts.
Accenture 2003
Description
Criteria
Forecast
Accuracy
Tracking
Demand Forecast
Valuation
Number of dimensions.
Review and
Adjust Forecasts
at Various
Aggregation
Levels
Number of dimensions.
(product/client/location).
valuation is calculated.
Calculation complexity.
(product/client/location).
Desaggregation criteria
complexity.
Number of SKUs.
Number of inputs used to
perform the forecast.
Desaggregation criteria
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complexity.
Accenture 2003
Description
It indicates the complexity that
exists in the transfer of the
forecast to SNP (or other system).
Criteria
Type of system to which the forecast
is to be transferred.
Alert Monitor
Work by
Exception
Returns Scenario
Frequency of returns.
Volume of products that are
returned.
Reporting
Scenario
Number of reports.
Complexity of KPIs calculation.
Number of filters (conditions for
report data selection).
Accenture 2003
Criteria
Number of characteristics.
Number of dimensions (product / client /
location).
Number of characteristics.
Number of dimensions (product / client /
location).
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Criteria
Roles and
Authorizations
Number of roles.
Master Data
Interface
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Criteria
Locations
Products
Number of products.
Sales History
PPM DP
Number of PPMs.
Average number of components per
PPM.
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Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
DP Exercises
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Accenture 2003
To demonstrate that the Supply Chain process has to be customer oriented in order to
ensure the required service level at minimum cost.
INDEX
Business Description
Previous Steps
SAP APO Demand Planning
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Accenture 2003
Business Description
Category A
Nationwide
All customer
Product A
Nationwide
All customers
Product B
Nationwide
customer A
Product B
Nationwide
All customers
Product B
Nationwide
customer B
Product B
Nationwide
customer C
The actual sales information at the customer level is critical to quickly react to
deviations in the promotional behavior.
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Business Description
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Business Description
The market is changing every day with continuous mergers, demergers, acquisitions, etc.
that must be reflected in the forecast to better match future demand.
Generally speaking, it is not advisable to change historical data to match changes in the
customer composition. It is preferable to introduce events in order to increase or decrease
the base sales forecast.
In this case, the forecast is adjusted by
introducing an event in the future with
the impact in sales of the increased or
decreased number of points of sales.
OR
customer A
customer A
customer A
customer B
New customer
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Accenture 2003
Previous Steps
Before performing this scenario in SAP APO, it is necessary to delete all the
previous transactional data from former users that could affect the scenario
results. For that matter, the next steps must be executed:
1.
Go to transaction SE38.
2.
/SAPAPO/RLCDELETE
3.
to execute it.
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Previous Steps
4. Get a variant:
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Previous Steps
6. Execute
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Generate Forecast
Event Introduction
Forecast Review
Review historical sales of one product and disaggregate the information in the client dimension.
Review the forecast at the client level and the impact of cannibalization between standard and
promotional products.
Analyze the alerts generated by the system due to significant sales deviation in one client during
the promotional period.
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SAP APO DP
Review of Historical Sales
1.
2.
3.
Open the Planning Book PB_003_02 and select (double click) in the data view
DV_003_01 Press the button
and select Info Objects
4.
5.
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SAP APO DP
6.
7.
To obtain the percentages by client over total sales, press the button
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and, in
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SAP APO DP
Generate Forecast
button
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SAP APO DP
Generate Forecast
statistic model.
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SAP APO DP
Event Introduction
Period: enter W
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SAP APO DP
Event Introduction
CAN_5246
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SAP APO DP
Event Introduction
8.
9.
for the second periods (e.g. 1.500) and for the third period(e.g. 2000)
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SAP APO DP
Event Introduction
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SAP APO DP
Event Introduction
RPROMEV.
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SAP APO DP
Forecast Review
1. At Interactive Planning screen, select the data selection product P_003_5246 and the
between the two products at the client level. When a product is in promotion, others
products may be affected
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SAP APO DP
Alerts
The alert monitor always provides a picture of current structure and supports the management
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SAP APO DP
Alerts
3. The interactive planning screen appears and the user only has to load the data selection
4. To do a drill down in the client dimension, go to the header and, in the Total Account
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Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
DP Exercises
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE
SAP APO installation guide and getting started: Before you do the exercises we are going to install
the SAP GUI and the access to the Barcelona APO Solution Center.
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE
Objective:
To consolidate the DP concepts learnt along the course.
At the conclusion of this unit, you will be able to:
Evaluate historical data and create sales forecast.
Analyze the differences among the forecasts you get when the statistical models have been
changed.
Analyze the variables that APO provides you to asses forecast accuracy based on past data.
Create promotional events in APO.
Check the promotion impact on the forecast and cannibalization produced between products.
Exercise:
The first step is to delete all the previous transactional data from former users that could affect our
results.
Select the product P_003_3004 and review sales at client level,both in absolute values and in
percentages.
Create a forecast, check the variables and change the statistical model for the forecast. Check the
differences between the models and check the MAD and MAPE statistical parameters.
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE
Introduce an event:
Short Text (Promotion ID):
Description: Promotion 3004 (user x)
Cannibalization group: CAN_3004
Period: enter W
Number of periods: enter 3
Begin date: (user)
End date: (user)
Promotional key figure: RPROMEV
Planning key figure: RHIST
Introduce some values for your promotion.
Check the promotion impact on the forecast.
Check the cannibalisation between products both at product level and at client level.
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE SOLUTION
Before performing this scenario in SAP APO, it is necessary to delete all the
previous transactional data from former users that could affect the scenario
results. For that matter, the next steps must be executed:
1.
Go to transaction SE38.
2.
/SAPAPO/RLCDELETE
3.
to execute it.
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE SOLUTION
4.
Get a variant:
5.
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE SOLUTION
6. Execute
All the categories from orders
(forecast, purchase requisitions,
production orders..) that could
affect the scenario results are
included in the variant.
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE SOLUTION
Review of Historical Sales:
1.
2.
3.
Open the Planning Book PB_003_02 and select (double click) in the data view
DV_003_01 Press the button
and select Info Objects
4.
5.
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE SOLUTION
6.
7.
To obtain the percentages by client over total sales, press the button
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and, in
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE SOLUTION
Generate Forecast:
1. To generate forecast select in the menu: Settings Forecast profile.
2. Select your Master Forecast Profile: MP_P_003_3004 press the button
press button
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and then
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE SOLUTION
statistic model:
Mean absolute deviation (MAD): mean absolute deviation gives the mean average
difference between the forecasted value and the historical value in the ex-post
forecast.
MAD
MAPE
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE SOLUTION
6. You can choose other models and review the new results. Exit without saving
pressing
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DP Exercises
DP EXERCISE SOLUTION
Next steps:
For next steps follow the instructions from the Demo Scenario. Be careful with
planning versions and products, so each assistant should use their products.
Use the information given at the exercise to introduce the promotional event as well.
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