AS Geography

Unit 1
World at Risk

Chapter 5
The impacts of global
warming
Textbook pages 52 - 63

The Arctic
Climate change will affect different locations across the
world in different ways
Arctic temperatures:
- Rising in the past few decades (3-4 C)
- Expected to continue to rise up to 3-5 C (land)/
7 C (oceans) in the next 100 years
Warming melting of Greenland ice sheet & sea ice
less solar energy reflected from ice & snow further
warming (positive feedback)
Melting ice means:
less saline & warmer Arctic ocean loss of warm Gulf
Stream cooling in Europe
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melted water higher sea levels
pgs. 5253

COMPULSORY CASE STUDY: Impacts of climate change in the

Arctic region
The polar regions will face the largest and fastest climate changes
impacts will be both POSITIVE and NEGATIVE
IMPACTS ON NATURAL SYSTEMS
1) Vegetation shifts
Negative
Vegetation zones will move
northwards unstable food
webs

Positive
- Longer growing season Arctic
agriculture

2) Permafrost* thawing
Positive
Negative
NONE
o 40% of total will thaw
(Siberia) CH4 released
o Lakes & rivers will drain or
rise fish (e.g. Arctic char)
affected
*Permafrost = permanently frozen
ground

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pgs. 5354

3) Fires & Insects

Negative
o Global warming more forest
fires & insect-caused tree
death
o Valuable habitats* (def. pg.
53) affected
o Alien species may invade
4) Ultraviolet impacts
Negative
o Snow & ice cover lost more
UV radiation reaches Earth
sensitive ecosystems (e.g.
phytoplankton) impacted

Positive
NONE

Positive
NONE
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pgs. 5354

Positive
o - More forests in Arctic
more CO2 uptake less CO2
in atmosphere

5) Carbon cycle changes

Negative
o - Methane emissions from
permafrost thawing
counterbalances the positive *Habitat = environment in
which plants and animals live,
impacts to the cycle
feed and reproduce

6) Other impacts
- Sea ice lost Coastal erosion
more waves, storm surges
IMPACTS ON ANIMAL SPECIES
Species changes
Negative
Positive
o Species will shift northwards with forests
NONE
some will decline, e.g. Arctic fox
o Sea ice lost marine species (e.g. polar
bears) will decline/become extinct
o Bird migration patterns will change, e.g.
geese
o Land species adapted to Arctic climate
(e.g. caribou) are at risk

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pgs. 5354

IMPACTS ON SOCIETY
Negative
o Indigenous people (Inuits):
Hunting culture lost
Food insecurity
o Herd animals will need to change
migration routes
o Some freshwater fisheries decline
(e.g. Arctic char)
o Land based transport disrupted
as permafrost thaws
o Arctic more accessible
exploitation for oil, gas & fish

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pgs. 5354

Positive
o Some fisheries enhanced
(e.g. cod arriving due to
higher temperatures)
o Enhanced agriculture &
forestry
o Arctic will become more
accessible (shipping, etc.)

COMPULSORY CASE STUDY: Impacts of climate change on the

continent of Africa
Africa: - least contribution to global warming
- most vulnerable to climate change
Most people depend on climate-sensitive resources (water,
ecosystems), but due to poverty cannot respond to climate
change
Temperatures in Africa predicted to rise by 3-4 C above mean
global rise IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA
Water issues
o International rivers are shared e.g. Nile potential for conflict
o Water stress wars, global migrations, famine
o Poverty = no access to safe & reliable water supply
Food insecurity
o 70% subsistence farmers water deficit & crop failure will mean famine,
e.g. Ethiopia
o Increased locust plagues threat to food supplies
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Natural resources
o Loss of biodiversity poor people dependent on wild plants and
animals will suffer
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Health
o Increased water-borne (diarrhoea) and vector-borne (malaria) diseases
o Loss of wild plants and animals on which most health services rely on
Development of coastal zones
o Refugees migrated to coasts (shanty towns) pressure on coastal
zones in north & west Africa, plus sea level rise threat in these areas
RISK of coastal erosion and flooding continents infrastructure will be
lost to flooding
Desertification
o Increases due to lower rainfall threat to grasslands on which Africans
depend in north & west Africa
Poverty
o Poverty root of vulnerability (2/3 of world LICs are in Africa)
worsened by conflicts (e.g. Darfur)
o Unfair trade forces African countries to sell exports at low price, e.g.
Mali cotton

Indirect

impacts of Climate
Change:
RISING SEA LEVELS

ing in
v
o
m
= land mass
e
g
n
ic cha oss/gain of t
t
a
t
s
*Iso
uplif
se to l

n
o
e
p
c
i
s
re
elting
m
.
g
.
e

*Eustatic change =
change
in sea level due to chan
ge in
amount of water in the
oceans

Predicting eustatic* sea level rise is complex and most

predictions are uncertain because:
- Its difficult to estimate future GHG emissions
- Which scenario should a model adopt?
- Impact of thermal expansion and melting ice is
difficult to predict because modeling their
contribution is complex
Sea-level rise is a worldwide process BUT varies
in different location because of tectonic
movements and isostatic change *from
changing ice-sheet pressure

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pgs. 5658

Important Examples:
Areas vulnerable to sea-level
rise
Which areas are most vulnerable to sea-level rise?
Large river deltas (e.g. Brahmaputra-Ganges, Nile)
Areas close /below sea level (e.g. the Netherlands)
Small, low-lying islands
Examples of areas affected by sea-level rise
BANGLADESH
Multiple hazard zone (river &coastal floods, typhoons, storm surges)
o Rising water destruction of mangrove swamps
o May lose 20% of land area if sea-level rises threat to food supplies,
drinking water and agricultural land in a country were most are
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subsistence farmers
pgs. 5658

EGYPT (Nile Delta)

o Local subsidence exacerbates impact of sea-level rise
o 1m rise in sea level 7 million people affected
o Other example of deltas at risk: Mekong delta, China & Mississippi
delta, USA
THE NETHERLANDS
One of the richest countries in the world
Below sea level/reclaimed land
Densely populated, highly developed area
Defended by complex system of dykes & sand dunes
o 1m rise in sea level $12,000 million to defend (2005 prices)
PACIFIC ISLANDS (e.g. Tuvalu, Maldives)
Common vulnerabilities:
- Small size nowhere to go
- Low elevation vulnerable to rise
- Prone to natural disasters
- Growing populations, rapid urbanisation (e.g. Fiji)
- Increasing environmental degradation
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- Limited resources some are LICs
pgs. 56Thereforeprotection is not an option
59

Look at
figure 5.7,
pg. 59 for
managing
sea-level
rise

Predicting emissions and their

impacts
Climate Models
Climate change models are created through simulations

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pgs. 5960

Predictions rely on low, medium and high GHG emissions produce

different global warming outcomes

See Key
concept on
page 60 for
Predictions are uncertain because it is hard to predict:
emission
The level and nature of economic development, especially in India
predictions
and China
Estimates: 1.8 C 4 C

Whether international action will be undertaken to reduce emissions

The systems inertia climate change persists even if GHG emissions stabilise

The impacts of positive feedbacks, e.g. release of methane as permafrost

thaws

more
hazardous
world?

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pgs. 6163

Scientists agree that

climate change will
continue it is the size of
the change is unknown
Negative impacts are
exponentially higher with
increased warming (Table
5.2, pg. 62)
Irreversible changes will
occur if a tipping point*
is reached, leading to:
- mass migration to
stable
areas (Africa Europe)
- conflicts over water &
food
Global warming sudden
shifts in weather patterns

*Tipping point
= reached when
climate changes
irreversibly at an
increasing rate
(450 ppm CO2, 2
C rise) see
Key concept
pg. 63

In this chapter we
Examined the range of environmental, social and economic impacts
of global warming by focusing on two case studies (Arctic, Africa)
Evaluated indirect impacts of climate change, e.g. rising sea levels
Assessed the complexities and limitations of modeling climate change
impacts
Evaluated the evidence suggesting that global warming may lead to
catastrophic, irreversible changes