Lec 3 Decision

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Chapter 3&5 Revision

The organizational culture is a system of


shared meaning held by members that
distinguishes the organization from other
organizations.
True
False

Environmental uncertainty can be divided


into two dimensions: degree of trust and
degree of integration.
True
False
(Degree of change in environment components
and complexity of the environment)

The omnipotent view of management means


________________.
a.the top manager is the only person in charge
b.managers are directly responsible for an
organizations success or failure
c.that there is only one boss in the organization, and
she or he is responsible for delegating orders
d.managers have little or no responsibility for an
organizations success or failure

An organizations culture is ______________.


a.represented in organizational meetings by the top
manager of the organization
b.represented by a common perception held by
interest groups that watch the organization
c.represented by a common perception held by the
organizations members
d.changed when the organization is purchased by
new owners

External environment refers to


_________________.
a.institutions outside the organization that affect the
organizations performance
b.forces and institutions outside the organization that
potentially can affect the organizations performance
c.forces and institutions inside the organization that
affect the organizations performance
d.forces inside the organization that affect the
organizations performance

Employee relations, philanthropy, pricing,


resource conservation, product quality and
safety, and doing business in countries that
violate human rights are some obvious
examples of __________________.
a.social responsibility ethics that managers must
decide on a daily basis
b.social responsibility issues that employees must
confront while at work
c.areas of social responsibility that influence
managers, not employees
d.decisions that managers face that have a social
responsibility dimension

Social obligation is the obligation of a


business to meet its _______________.
a.social and technological responsibilities
b.economic and social responsibilities
c.technological and economic responsibilities
d.economic and legal responsibilities

Which of the following is a basic definition


of ethics?
a.moral guidelines for behavior
b.rules for acknowledging the spirit of the law
c.rules or principles that define right and
wrong conduct
d.principles for legal and moral development

Chapter

Decision Making:
The Essence of the
Managers Job

LECTURE OUTLINE
1. The decision making process
2. Three decision making approaches
3. Decision making conditions
4. Decision making bias and errors

Decision Making
Decision
Making a choice from two or more alternatives.

The Decision-Making Process


Identifying a problem and decision criteria and
allocating weights to the criteria.
Developing, analyzing, and selecting an
alternative that can resolve the problem.
Implementing the selected alternative.
Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.

Decision Making Process

12

Decision Making Process (cont.)


Step 1: Identifying the problem
Problem: A discrepancy between an existing
and desired state of affairs.

Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria


Decision criteria are factors that are important
or relevant to resolving the problem.

Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria


Decision criteria are not of equal importance .

Decision Making Process (cont.)


Step 4: Developing Alternatives
Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can
resolve the problem.

Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives


- An alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to
resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.

Step 6: Selecting an Alternative


- The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.

Step 7: Implementing the Alternative


Putting the chosen alternative into action.

Decision Making Process (cont.)


Step 8: Evaluating the Decisions Effectiveness
The soundness of the decision is judged by its
outcomes.
How effectively was the problem resolved by
outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?
If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?

Decision Making Approaches


Rationality
Managers make consistent, value-maximizing
choices with specified constraints

Decision Making Approaches (cont.)


Bounded Rationality
Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited
(bounded) by their ability to process information.
Assumptions are that decision makers:
Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives
Will satisficechoose the first alternative encountered that
satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the
outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and
choosing the best.

Influence on decision making


Escalation of commitment: an increased commitment to a
previous decision despite evidence that it may have been
wrong.

Decision Making Approaches (cont.)


Intuitive decision making
Making decisions on the basis of experience,
feelings, and accumulated judgment.

Is it true that the longer you live the wiser youll get?

Types of Problems and Decisions


Structured Problems
Involve goals that clear.
Are familiar (have occurred before).
Are easily and completely definedinformation about
the problem is available and complete.

Programmed Decision
A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine
approach.

Types of Problems and Decisions


Procedure
A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use
to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.

Rule
An explicit statement that limits what a manager or
employee can or cannot do.

Policy
A general guideline for making a decision about a
structured problem.

Example
The British Council is committed to:
understanding, valuing and working with diversity to enable fair and full
participation in our work
ensuring that there is no unjustified discrimination in our recruitment,
selection and other processes
ensuring action that promotes equality of opportunity, including
conducting equality screening and impact assessments of policies and
functions and progressing diversity action plans
treating individuals with whom we work fairly and with dignity and
respect
playing our part in removing barriers and redressing imbalances caused
by inequality and discrimination

Types of Problems and Decisions


Unstructured Problems
Problems that are new or unusual and for which
information is ambiguous or incomplete.
Problems that will require custom-made solutions.

Nonprogrammed Decisions
Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.
Decisions that generate unique responses.

BP oil spill on Gulf of Mexico Beach

Decision Making Conditions


Certainty
A situation in which a manager can make an accurate
decision because the outcome of every alternative
choice is known.
Risk
A situation in which the manager is able to estimate
the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result
from the choice of particular alternatives.
Uncertainty
Limited information prevents estimation of outcome
probabilities for alternatives associated with the
problem and may force managers to rely on intuition,
hunches, and gut feelings.

Decision-Making Biases and Errors

Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont.)


Heuristics: Using rules of thumb to simplify decision
making.
Overconfidence Bias
Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and
ones performance.
Immediate Gratification Bias
Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards
and that to avoid immediate costs.

Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont.)


Anchoring Effect
Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent
information.
Selective Perception Bias
Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on
the decision makers biased perceptions.
Confirmation Bias
Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices
and discounting contradictory information.

Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont.)


Framing Bias
Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a
situation while ignoring other aspects.
Availability Bias
Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the
most recent events.
Representation Bias
Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations
when none exist.
Randomness Bias
Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.

Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont.)


Sunk Costs Errors
Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past
events and relate only to future consequences.
Self-Serving Bias
Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside
factors for failures.
Hindsight Bias
Mistakenly believing that an event could have been
predicted accurately once the actual outcome is known
(after-the-fact).

Characteristics of an Effective
Decision-Making Process
It focuses on what is important.
It is logical and consistent.
It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking
and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.
It requires only as much information and analysis as is
necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.
It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant
information and informed opinion.
It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible.

Terms to Know

decision
decision-making process
problem
decision criteria
rational decision making
bounded rationality
satisficing
escalation of commitment
intuitive decision making
structured problems
programmed decision

procedure
rule
policy
unstructured problems
nonprogrammed decisions
certainty
risk
uncertainty
heuristics

Food for thought


Life is about making choices.

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