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Fundamental Analysis Sun Pharma
Fundamental Analysis Sun Pharma
Fundamental Analysis Sun Pharma
FISCAL DEFICIT
* 2016-17 expected to be challenging from fiscal point of view; time is right for a
review of medium-term fiscal framework
* 2015-16 fiscal deficit, seen at 3.9 per cent of GDP, seems achievable
* Credibility and optimality argue for adhering to 3.5 per cent of GDP fiscal deficit
target
INFLATION
* CPI inflation seen around 4.5 to 5 per cent in 2016-17
* Low inflation has taken hold, confidence in price stability has improved
* Expect RBI to meet 5 per cent inflation target by March 2017
* Prospect of lower oil prices over medium term likely to dampen inflationary
expectations
CURRENCY
* Rupee's value must be fair, avoid strengthening; fair value can be achieved
through monetary relaxation
* India needs to prepare itself for a major currency readjustment in Asia in wake
of a similar adjustment in China
* Rupee's gradual depreciation can be allowed if capital inflows are weak
TAXES
* Tax revenue expected to be higher than budgeted levels in 2015-16
* Proposes widening tax net from 5.5 per cent of earning individuals to more than
20 per cent
* Favours review and phasing out of tax exemptions; easiest way to widen the
tax base not to raise exemption thresholds
Industry
The Indian Pharmaceutical market (IPM) accounts for approx. 1.4% of the
global pharmaceutical industry in value terms and 10% in the volume
terms. The IPM is valued at Rs 860 bn for the year ending March 2015. The
growth in 2015 stood at 12.9%
According to Mr Arun Singh, Indian Ambassador to the US, the Indian
pharmaceutical market is expected to grow to US$ 55 billion by 2020,
thereby emerging as the sixth largest pharmaceutical market globally by
absolute size.
The IPM size is expected to grow at 9-12% CAGR between 2013-18. The
growth in Indian domestic market will be boosted by increasing consumer
spending, rapid urbanization, increasing healthcare insurance, drugs and
so on. On the global front, the IPM is ranked 13th in terms of value. Owing
to robust growth, its ranking is expected to improve to 11th position by
2018.
The life style segments such as cardiovascular, anti-diabetes, antidepressants and anti-cancers will continue to be lucrative and fast
growing owing to increased urbanisation and change in lifestyle patterns.