Lots of safety in typical estimates (at both

the project and task levels)

Estimates usually given at 80% conf. levels
Equates to 200% margin of safety

Pessimistic experience , the end of the

distribution curve

Larger number of management levels

involved , the higher the total estimation

The estimators also protect their

estimations from a global cut .

Dependencies
Causes delays to accumulate while wasting away
the advances
Example: 4 dependent tasks, 3 finishes ahead (-5
days), 1 finishes behind (+15 days)
Statistically, gainers average out the laggards
In reality, the advances are lost, early finishes are
rarely reported
Results in a net delay of 15 days

The student syndrome

No rush to start, wait until the last minute
Leave just enough time (the true estimate)
Consequence:
No margin for errors, delays, or the unexpected
Safety already spent during the initial start delay

Multitasking
Results in increased lead times

Student syndrome
Dependencies between steps
Multi Tasking

Solutions
Chain them all together tightly, aka assembly
line / conveyor belt method
Throughput suffers, everyone moves at the pace of
the slowest producer

Chain them together with some slack = J.I.T.

Similar to conveyor belt example
Introduces containers which allows for a limited input
buffer to accumulate
Creates additional inventory however

Pitfalls of Managing a Program:

1. Pad each steps completion dates.
2. Pad each step with a lot of safety time
3. Waste safety time:

Student Syndrome
Multi-Tasking
Delays accumulate and advances do not

Bottleneck: a resource with capacity that is

not sufficient to produce the quantities that
the market demands.

Critical Path: the constraint of the project.

Feeding Buffer: a buffer used by the noncritical path so that it does not affect the
critical path.

Before / Most Common

Project Plan with buffer at each step

After / Best Way

Project Plan with buffer at Critical
Path and Feeder Buffers for NonCritical Path

Monitoring Progress
Before => Monitor critical path by % complete
After => Adding feeding buffer monitoring
Days consumed on feeding buffer
Days consumed compared with original buffer days
Days left on feeding buffer

Conclusion => Focus on continuous monitoring

2 Types of Projects

Projects done solely by the company

Reduce lead time estimates
Eliminate milestones
Frequent reporting

Projects done by vendors and subcontractors

Talk their language
Pay for vendor responsiveness

Penalty for not finishing a project on time

Cash Flow
Sales
Market Share
Stock Value