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c7 Ly Thuyet Tro Choi 1 5613
c7 Ly Thuyet Tro Choi 1 5613
Vn c tho lun
Tr chi v quyt nh chin lc
Nhng chin lc u th
Xem xt li cn bng Nash
Tr chi lp li
Vn c tho lun
Tr chi chui (trc - sau)
e da, Cam kt, v S tn nhim
Ngn chn nhp ngnh
Chin lc mc c
Tr chi bt hp tc v hp tc
Tr chi hp tc
Nhng ngi chi thng lng nhng hp
ng lin kt m cho php h lp nhng k
hoch chung
VD:
Tr chi bt hp tc v hp tc
Tr chi bt hp tc
Thng lng v thc thi nhng hp ng
lin kt gia hai ngi chi l khng th
VD:
Tr chi bt hp tc v hp tc
Thit k chin lc da trn s hiu
bit quan im ca i th, v (gi s i
th l hp l) suy ra i th c th phn
ng vi hnh ng ca mnh nh th
no.
Cn bng Nash
Mt tp hp cc chin lc (hay hnh ng) sao
cho mi ngi chi lm tt nht m h c th, vi
nhng hnh ng ca i th c cho trc
10
Cn bng Nash
Cn bng Nash
Ti lm tt nht c th cho trc nhng g anh
lm. Anh lm tt nht c th cho trc nhng g
ti lm.
11
Tr chi mt ln khng lp li
Chin lc u th v cn bng Nash
Chin lc u th l chin lc m t ti
u bt chp i th lm g
V d
A v
12
Khng qung co
10, 5
15, 0
Khng
qung co
6, 8
10, 2
Hng A
Qung co
13
Hng B
Qung co
Khng
Qung co
10, 5
15, 0
6, 8
10, 2
Hng A
Khng
Qung co
14
Hng BKhng
Qung co
qung co
10, 5
15, 0
6, 8
10, 2
Hng A
Khng
Qung co
15
Chin lc u th
Cn bng trong chin lc u th
Kt qu ca tr chi trong mi hng lm
tt nht m h c th bt chp i th ca n
lm g
Chin lc ti u c xc nh m khng
lo lng n hnh ng ca ngi chi khc
16
Chin lc u th
Tr chi khng c chin lc u th
Chin lc ti u ca mt ngi chi m
khng c chin lc u th s ph thuc vo
nhng g i th lm
Xem li ma trn kt qu, chng ta c th
thy tnh hung m khng c chin lc u
th
17
Hng A
Qung co
Khng
Qung co
10, 5
15, 0
6, 8
20, 2
18
Nhn xt
A: khng c chin
lc u th; ph
thuc vo hnh ng
ca B
B: Chin lc u th
l qung co
Hng A xc nh B
chin lc u th ca
v theo ra quyt
nh
2005 Pearson Education, Inc.
Qung co
Qung co
10, 5
15, 0
6, 8
20, 2
Hng A
Khng
Qung co
19
Cn bng Nash
Ti lm tt nht c th cho trc nhng g anh lm.
Anh lm tt nht c th cho trc nhng g ti lm.
20
21
La chn sn phm
Hng 2
Gin
-5, -5
10, 10
10, 10
-5, -5
Hng 1
Gin
Ngt
Ngt
22
La chn sn phm
Hng 2
Nu hng 1 bit
hng 2 tung sn
phm mi l ngt,
hnh ng tt nht
ca n l tung sn
phm gin
Gc di bn tri l
cn bng Nash
Cn bng Nash
khc l g?
C 2 im cn bng
2005 Pearson Education, Inc.
Gin
Gin
Ngt
-5, -5
10, 10
10, 10
-5, -5
Hng 1
Ngt
23
24
Chin lc
Ko
Giy
0, 0
1, -1
-1, 1
Ko
-1, 1
0, 0
1, -1
Giy
1, -1
-1, 1
0, 0
25
26
nh gi Bertrand
Chin lc cn bng
Hng B
H
n
g
Chin
lc
Thp
Cao
Thp
0, 0
50, -10
Cao
-10, 50
10, 10
27
28
Ma trn kt qu
Nhn vin
Qun l
Lm vic
Trn vic
Kim tra
-1, 1
1, -1
Khng
kim tra
1, -1
-1, 1
29
Kim tra
Qun l
Khng c cn
bng Nash
Kim tra ngu
nhin s c tc
dng
Khng
kim tra
Trn vic
-1, 1
1, -1
1, -1
-1, 1
30
Tr chi lp li v s ln
Tr chi trong nhng hnh ng
c thc hin v kt qu c nhn
lp i lp li
Cc hng c quyn nhm chi tr lp
li
Vi mi ln lp li, hng xy dng danh
ting v hnh vi ca mnh v nghin cu
hnh vi ca i th
2005 Pearson Education, Inc.
Chapter 13
31
32
Ma trn kt qu
Nghi can B
Nghi can A
Th nhn
Khng th nhn
Th nhn
-5, -5
-1, -10
Khng
Th nhn
-10, -1
-2, -2
Chapter 13
33
Nghch l ngi t
u l:
Chin lc u th
Cn bng Nash
Nghi can B
Th nhn Khng th nhn
Chin lc u th
ca c hai l th
Th nhn
nhn
Chng cng l cn
Nghi can A
bng Nash
Khng
iu g xy ra nu c
th nhn
hai cu kt v khng
th nhn?
Chapter 13
-5, -5
-1, -10
-10, -1
-2, -2
34
Nghch l ngi t
Nhng ngi t i khi ch c c hi
th nhn mt ln trong i
Cc hng c quyn nhm phi nh
gi, sn lng, qung co, lp i lp
li
Cc chin lc s phc tp hn
Cc hng xy dng danh ting ca
mnh v nghin cu hng vi ca i th
35
Kh khn trong nh gi
Hng 2
Gi thp
Gi thp
Gi cao
10, 10
100, -50
-50, 100
50, 50
Hng 1
Gi cao
36
Kh khn trong nh gi
Lm th no hng tm ra mt chin lc,
nhn chung, l tt nht i ph vi tt c
hay hu ht cc chin lc lc khc?
Chin lc n ming tr ming (tit-for-tat
strategy)
Chin lc trong tr chi lp li trong mt
ngi chi phn ng tng t nhng g i th
lm trong cc tr chi trc, hp tc vi i th
hp tc v tr a vi nhng ngi bt hp tc
37
Chin lc n ming tr
ming
iu g xy ra nu tr chi lp li v hn?
Cc i th lp li vic nh gi hng thng,
mi mi
Hnh vi hp tc l phn ng hp l cho chin
lc n ming tr ming
Nu
38
Chin lc n ming tr
ming
iu g xy ra nu tr chi lp li hu hn?
Nu cc hng u hp l, h s nh gi cao
cho n thng cui cng
Sau thng cui, khng c tr a g na
Nhng trong nhng thng trc thng cui, bit
rng hng kia s nh gi thp trong thng cui,
s nh gi thp trong thng k cui
C nh th v thy rng ch c mt kt cc hp
l l c hai nh gi thp mi thng
39
40
Tr chi lp li
Kt lun
Hp tc kh c th l tt nht do nhiu yu
t c th thay i trong di hn
Cn c s lng t cc hng
Cn c cc iu kin v cu v chi ph n
nh
iu
ny c th dn n chin tranh gi nu
nhng iu trn khng xy ra
41
42
43
44
Hng 1
Gin
Gin
Ngt
Ngt
-5, -5
10, 20
20, 10
-5, -5
45
Do hng 2 c th da vo quyt nh
ca hng 1, lun c 2 im cn bng
Nash v chng n nh
46
Gin
-5, -5
Ngt
10, 20
Gin
20, 10
Ngt
-5, -5
Hng 2
Hng 1
Ngt
Gin
Hng 2
47
48
Li th ca ngi i trc
Gi s: c quyn i
P 30 Q
Q Q1 Q2
MC 0
Cournot :
Q1 Q2 10 v P 10 100 / hng
2005 Pearson Education, Inc.
49
Li th ca ngi i trc
c quyn i
Cu kt
Q1 Q2 7 ,5 v P 15 112 ,50 / hng
Q1 15
Q2 7 ,5 v P 7 ,50
1 112 ,50
2005 Pearson Education, Inc.
2 56,25
50
La chn sn lng
Hng 2
Hng 1
7,5
10
15
93,75, 125
56,25, 112,50
10
100, 100
50, 75
75, 50
0, 0
125, 93,75
15 112,50, 56,25
51
La chn sn lng
Ma trn kt qu ny
biu din nhng kt
cc khc nhau
Hng 2
7,5
7,5 112,50, 112,50
Hng 1 10
125, 93,75
15 112,50, 56,25
10
15
93,75, 125
56,25, 112,50
100, 100
50, 75
75, 50
0, 0
52
cn nhp ngnh
p i th gim sn lng, xut ngnh, tng gi
Tha thun ngm lm li mt hng
53
54
55
nh gi cho my tnh x l vn
bn
Hng 2
Cao
Thp
Cao
100, 80
80, 100
Thp
20, 0
Hng 1
10, 20
56
57
La chn sn xut
Race Car Motors
Xe nh
Xe ln
ng c
nh
3, 6
3, 0
1, 1
8, 3
58
59
60
La chn sn xut c iu
chnh
Race Car Motors
ng c
nh
Xe nh
Xe ln
0, 6
0, 0
1, 1
8, 3
61
La chn sn xut c iu
chnh
Nhng cam kt chin lc ny c th c
hiu qu nhng khng phi khng c ri
ro
Ph thuc nhiu vo nhng hiu bit chnh
xc v ma trn kt qu v ngnh sn xut
C th c nhng i th khc m h khng
bit n v do vy c th thua l
62
Vai tr ca ting tm
Nu Far Out c ting l ngi phi l
H e da s sn xut ng c ln bt chp Race Car
sn xut g
63
Chin lc mc c
V tr mc c c th ph thuc vo kh
nng tc ng n v th mc c tng
i
Xt 2 hng gii thiu mt trong hai sn
phm b sung cho nhau:
Hng 1 c li th chi ph v sn phm A
Hng 2 c li th chi ph v sn phm B
64
Chin lc mc c
Hng 2
Sn xut A
Sn xut A
Sn xut B
40, 5
50, 50
60, 40
5, 45
Hng 1
Sn xut B
65
Chin lc mc c
Cu kt:
Hng 1 sn xut A v
Hng 2 sn xut B
(50,50)
Khng cu kt:
Hng 2
Sn xut A
Hng 1 sn xut A v
Hng 2 sn xut B do Hng 1
y l chin lc u
Sn xut
th ca B (50,50)
Cn bng Nash
Sn xut A
Sn xut B
40, 5
50, 50
60, 40
5, 45
66
Chin lc mc c
Gi s mi hng cng mc c v quyt
nh cng nhau hp nht thnh hng th
ba
Chin lc u th cho c hai hng l
tham gia hp nht
67
Chin lc mc c
Hng 2
Ring l
Ring l
Hp nht
10, 10
10, 20
20, 10
40, 40
Hng 1
Hp nht
68
Chin lc mc c
Lin kt cc vn mc c
Hng 1 tuyn b n s hp nht ch khi
Hng 2 ng sn xut A v Hng 1 s sn
xut B
Hng 2 s chuyn tm sn xut A trong khi
hng 1 sn xut B
Li
69
Chin lc mc c
Nhng bc i chin lc c th c
s dng trong mc c
Lin kt cc vn trong mc c c th
lm li cho mt bn v lm thit bn kia
70
71
Gi cao
(Tha hip)
Nhp
ngoi
100, 20
200, 0
70, -10
130, 0
72
73
74
To ra ma trn kt qu mi do li nhun
b ct gim khi u t
Li e da hon ton ng tin
Hp l i vi Hng X l ngoi th
trng
2005 Pearson Education, Inc.
75
Gi cao
(Tha hip)
Nhp
ngoi
50, 20
150, 0
70, -10
130, 0
76
77
78
Khng sn xut
Sn xut
-10, -10
100, 0
Khng sn xut
0, 120
0, 0
Boeing
79
Airbus
Sn xut
Khng sn xut
-10, -10
100, 0
0, 120
0, 0
Boeing
Khng sn xut
80
81
Khng sn xut
Sn xut
-10, 10
100, 0
Khng sn xut
0, 120
0, 0
Boeing
82
Airbus
Sn xut
Khng sn xut
-10, 10
100, 0
0, 120
0, 0
Boeing
Khng sn xut
83