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TA1 Option and Stock Market
TA1 Option and Stock Market
Information
If you have private information about a stock,
which market you would like to trade, options
or stocks?
Information
Jun and Poteshman (2006) The Information in Optio
n Volume for Future Stock Prices Review of Financi
al Studies , volume 19, pages 871--908, 2006
Stocks with high put call ratios earn lower returns tha
n stocks with low put call ratios.
OTM puts
ATM puts
ITM puts
-14.65%
-9.5
-6.16
t-Statistic
(-4.22)
(-2.81)
(-2.54)
Minimum
-84.03
-87.72
-85.98
Maximum
475.88
228.57
174.7
Mean BS beta
-36.85
-31.11
-26.53
202,519
59,530
22,457
Is market predictable ?
Dependent: future 3 months S&P500 returns
Constant
2.59
Constant
6.43
t-statistics
(3.98)
(1.95)
Demand
OTMput
-70.88
t-statistcs
(-4.55)
R2
0.19
PE ratio -180.74
Constant -2.83
(-1.07)
Div
Yield
224.47
(-1.51)
0.02
Constant
1.11
(1.17)
VIX
36.1
premium
(1.78)
0.02
(0.64)
0.01
10
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Summary
Options trading
1. Tells us cross sectional differences in fut
ure stock returns (information)
2. Influences the stock prices on expiration
days
3. Give us a guide of future market movem
ents
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