Portfolio 1

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PORTFOLIO 1

1. The value of Best candy Stock is sensitive to price of sugar- its basic raw
material. When sugar crops are low, price rises, the profit margin
suffers. The Cos fortune is described by following scenarios:
Normal Year of Crop
Abnormal Year
Bullish Bearish
Low Sugar Crop
Probability 0.5 0.3 0.2
Rate of Return 25% 10% -25%

Using conventional Statistics find out 1)Expected Return and 2)Sd.


Deviation. If Instead of investing entire fund in candy stock, if 50% is
held in risk free 5% Govt. bond, what will be the return & risk of the
portfolio ?

Contd. 2
Portfolio 2
A consultant is hired who spots a sugar co. which does extremely
well during crop failure. A scenario analysis of the company
reveals following

Normal Year
Sugar Crisis
Bull Bear
Probability 0.5 0.3
0.2

Return Rate 1% -5%


35%

The consultant advises to construct a portfolio of stock of Best Candy


stock with the sugar co. stock by investing equally. He says It is
a better hedged portfolio than investing in Govt. bond. What do
you advocate?.

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