What is Probability

Learning Intention Success Criteria

1. To understand the 1. Understand the term

likelihood line and likelihood line and probability.
calculating simple
2. Decide where certain
probability.
events should lie on the
likelihood line.

3. Calculate simple
probabilities.
 What is Probability
Likelihood Line
Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to happen

0 0.5 1

Impossible Evens Certain

Not very Very
likely likely

Seeing
School Winning the Baby Born Go back
a butterfly
Holidays Lottery A Boy in time
In July
 What is Probability
Likelihood Line

0 0.5 1

Impossible Evens Certain

Not very Very
likely likely

Click the statement which is Impossible

It will The answer to Toss a coin

A year when Going without
Snow in winter 2+7=9 That land
it does not Food and drink
Heads
rain for a year.
Start
 Calculating Probability

Probability can be thought of as a simple fraction or decimal.

It always lies between 0 and 1.

0 meaning impossible ( could not happen)

1 meaning certain ( will definitely happen)

number of favourable outcomes

Probability of an event happening=
number of possible outcomes
 Heads or Tails

The coin was spun twenty times. Result ..

Number of Heads 9

Number of Tails 11

About as many Heads as Tails

The likelihood of getting a Head is evens or half . Or 0.5

Heads or Tails

Restart
 Head or Tail

You tossed a coin and got a HEAD

You still have an even chance of getting a HEAD next time

It is only when you toss the coin a large number of times

that the results shout even themselves out 100
Experiment Number of times to toss coin 100 0

Number of Heads 58 (-) Ans On

Try Again
C
Number of Tails 42
7 8 9 x

You are as likely to get a Heads as you are to get Tails 4 5 6

1 2 3 -
0 . = +
 Rolling a Dice

When you roll a dice you could get ..

To win a game you need a six. How likely is this ?

To win Could get

Win
Possible
( Favourable )

Could win right away but much more likey to lose

 How to calculate Probability of Heads

Possible
Favourable
Probability is a Maths term which allows you to predict
how likely an event ( head on a coin ) is to happen What
Whatcould
you
happen
want
Favourable
Outcomes 1
Probability =
=
Possible 2
Outcomes

Probability expressed as a fraction. Why ?

The line shows that there is an even chance of getting a head
Fractions go from 0 ( unlikely to happen) to 1 ( must happen )

Will
Will not
Happen
Happen
1
0 1
2
 Probability of a six

Probability is a Maths term which allows you to predict

how likely an event ( like rolling a six ) is to happen

Favourable
Outcomes 1
Probability =
=
Possible 6
Outcomes

Probability expressed as a fraction. Why ?

The line shows that getting a six immediately is unlikely but possible
Fractions go from 0 ( unlikely to happen) to 1 ( must happen )

Will
Will not
Happen
Happen
1
0 1
6
 Getting an even number on a dice

Favourable
Outcomes 3 1
Probability = = =
Possible 6 2
Outcomes

Will
Will not
Happen
Happen
3
0 1
6

You have an equal chance of getting an even number

 Colour from a bag
Blue beads

Probability of a Blue

Favourable
=
Possible

= 0
(-) Ans On

C
Blue 4 Orange 1 7 8 9 x

Yellow 4 Red 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 -
New Example Click beads to Click Name to
put in bag select colour
0 . = +
 Spinner 1 to 16 Probability of a Odd

8 7 8 Favourable
9 =
6 16 Possible

10 5
1
=
11 4 2

12 3
0
Favourable
13 2 (-) Ans On
15 3 1 5 C
14 1
15 7 9 11 13 7 8 9 x
16
4 5 6
1 2 3 -
spin Next Example 0 . = +
Win
 Calculating Probability

Example : A boy tossed a coin.

What is the probability that it is heads.
1
P( heads)
2
Example : There are 3 red and 4 green balls in a bag.
What is the probability a green ball is picked.
Favourble
4 4
P( green)
3 4 7 Possible
 Choosing from 4 cards

The Heart and Diamonds are Red

The Club and Spades are Black

Favourable
Outcomes 2 1
Probability = =
of a Red = Possible 4 2
Outcomes

Favourable
Outcomes 1
Probability =
of a Spade = Possible 4
Outcomes
 Pack of Cards

A pack of cards should have 52 cards. 4 suits ( sets ) of 13 cards

13 cards with SPADES

on them. SUIT of cards

Ace of CLUBS Queen of HEARTS 2 of DIAMOND is

can be worth 1 is a FACE card. the lowest value
or 11 Worth 10 diamond
 Pack of Cards : A Heart

Favourable
Outcomes 13 1
Probability
of Heart
= = =
Possible 52 4
Outcomes

One row out of four

 Pack of Cards : Face Card

Favourable
Outcomes 12 3
Probability
of Face Card
= = =
Possible 52 13
Outcomes

Three
A Facecolumns out ofa thirteen
Card shows characters face J, Q or K
 Pack of Cards : Less than four

Favourable
Probability Outcomes 8 2
of a number = = =
less than 4 Possible 52 13
Outcomes

Two columns out of Thirteen Ace High Ace counts as 11

 0

(-) Ans On

C
7 8 9 x
(-) C x 4 5 6
5 6 7 8 9 + - On
1 2 3 -
0 0 1 2 3 4 . = Ans 0 . = +