Peace and Security in

the Horn of Africa:

Current Trends
Mulugeta Gebrehiwot

Nairobi, 12-13 December 2016

Structure of presentation
1. The African Peace Missions project.

2. Conflict trends.

3. Increased militarization of interventions.

4. Relationship between economic integration and peace

and security.
The African Peace Missions Project

Most extensive review of AUs peace missions, ever

conducted.

The Report covers African peace and security norms and

mechanisms, including conflict prevention, conflict
mediation, political missions and the spectrum of
military peace operations.

Based on detailed case studies, cross-cutting research,

and consultations with leading experts, peacekeepers,
and mediators.
Conflict trends: Are HoA wars intra-state or inter-
state?
Conflict trends: Are HoA wars intra-state or inter-
state? (contd.)
Conflict Trends: Implications of Increasing Inter-state
Conflict
A new model for
mediation
International
The need for primacy of the political. parties
Regional
stakehold
ers

Important implications for conflict Domes

tic
mediation. groups

Need to expand the mandate and increase

capacity of mediators
Increased militarization of
interventions
Economic Integration, peace, and
security
Poor regional integration

African Development Bank Index Trade

on Integration
regional integration:
Financial
integration Regional
IGAD ranked highly in Infrastructure

regional infrastructure,
trade of intermediate products
(productive integration). Productive
Free movement of
integration
people
Dotted line represents avg. score for African RECs. Green line is the IGAD score.
Economic Integration, peace, and security
(contd.)
Ethiopia, Sudan and Kenya are principal
contributors to wealth creation (together
about 90% of IGADs GDP);
Ethiopia in search of new markets.

Ongoing power-grid integration projects

aiming to tap into Ethiopias hydro power
potential.

Eastern Nile Basin (dark grey)

Need to move towards a supra-state
multilateral structure.
Question
s?