Chinas Exports in 2015

Dr. Sriparna Pathak

Consultant,
Policy Planning and Research Division,
Ministry of External Affairs,
New Delhi, India

The views expressed are personal and do not reflect

those of the MEA or of the Government of India
 Introduction
2015: tumultuous year for the Chinese economy.
Why?
2008 financial crisis, import capacities reduced
in prime destinations, export reliant growth
model
Structure of this work:
Outline: export led growth, Deng Xiaopings
reforms and opening up, current situation,
outline of announced plans for future.
 21st century: China- important
manufacturing platform of the world
Manufacturing sector consistently
accounting for about half of GDP in China
2007: China topped the lists of production
volumes in more than 170 products
2013: Chinas industrial output rose to 120
per cent of the U.S.
The result: Emerged as an important link
in the global industrial chain
 Graph 1: China's Exports of goods and
services

Unit: 100 million Yuan

Source(s): National Bureau of Statistics, PRC

 Strategies
Coastal Development Strategy
Export Processing Zones
Participation of foreign owned enterprises
FDI encouragement policies
Preferential tax and administrative treatment
VAT credit reimbursements to encourage exports
Result: Surge in inflows of both financial capital
and physical capital
1979: deficit USD 906 million; 1982: surplus
USD 6.868 billions
 Debating Reforms in 1978
Practice is the Sole Criterion for Testing the
Truth: poverty is not socialism- socialism
should develop the productive forces in an
order to be advantageous than capitalism, and
that money and money and commodity should
not be abolished in the primary stage of
socialism; commodity economy should be
developed
1990: socialist market economy
Chen Yun: bird in a cage
 Emancipating the Mind and Seeking Truth
from Facts
Dengs originality
What is the China model?
The current context and similarities with
the take off years
 Current Scenario
Period of stuttering growth
Latest quarter: six year low of 6.9 per cent
despite repeated interest cuts and other
stimulus measures
December 2015: manufacturing fell to its
weakest in three years.
Exports to the US dropped 5.3 percent from a
year earlier, while shipments to the European
Union decreased 9 percent
Slumping imports along with declining exports
Monthly Value of Exports from January
to November 2015 in USD billions
 Total Value of Exports, Growth Rate
(The same period last year = 100) (%)
 Conclusion: Policies, Plans and the
Near Future
Development process: three phases
Cases of US, UK, the Netherlands, Japan and China
May 19, 2015: China State Councils Made in China
2025
Focus Areas: innovation led development, application
of smart technology, strengthening foundations and
pursuing green development, redoubling efforts to
upgrade from a manufacturer of quantity to a
manufacturer of quality
Enhancement of services
 Most likely scenario: is a moderate but steady
decline in growth while structural reforms are
carried out. While the export engine shall
continue to be an important one, it will not
remain as the only important one. The Chinese
economy will attempt structural shifts so as to
ensure that from an exporter of low end goods,
it graduates to a manufacturer and exporter of
high end goods, and the growth strategy is
based more on domestic consumption rather
than on merely exports.
Thank You