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HOW TO USE STATISTICS FOR

LIBRARY DECISION-MAKING
Diana Very
June 27, 2011
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MBA for Librarians: Statistics

This program will demystify statistical concepts and skills

and illustrate their library applications. The instructor will
show how data can and should influence all areas of library
operations. Learn about studies, tools and resources to
assist you in comparing your data with that from other
institutions. Create information, knowledge and stories
from numerical and qualitative data to enhance decision
making.
The goal: Manage smarter.
Led by Diana Very.
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Diana Very
Director of LSTA, Statistics, & Research

Funding provided for this presentation

by IMLS through the LSTA program grant
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How many have never

used statistics?
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Has anyone received one of these?

100%
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Statistics tell a story

What
Where
When
How
Why
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What is a Statistic?
A statistic is a quantity that is calculated from a sample
of data. It is used to give information about unknown
values in the corresponding population. For example, the
average of the data in a sample is used to give
information about the overall average in the population
from which that sample was drawn.
It is possible to draw more than one sample from the
same population and the value of a statistic will in general
vary from sample to sample. For example, the average
value in a sample is a statistic. The average values in
more than one sample, drawn from the same population,
will not necessarily be equal.
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Definitions
Mean
Median
Mode
Percentage Change )*100
Range
Sample
Standard Deviation
Target Population
(Children at a Childrens Program)

Trend
Variance
Correlation
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Example of Population, Mean, Variance, Standard

Deviation
Consider a population consisting of the following eight values: 2,4,4,4,5,5,7,9

These eight data points have the mean (average) of 5:

(2+4+4+4+5+5+7+9)/8 = 5

To calculate the population standard deviation, first compute the difference of

each data point from the mean, and square the result of each:
(2-5)2 = (-3)2 = 9 (4-5)2 = (-1)2 = 1 (4-5)2 = (-1)2 = 1 (4-5)2 = (-1)2 = 1

(5-5)2 = (-0)2 = 0 (5-5)2 = (-0)2 = 0 (7-5)2 = (2)2 = 4 (9-5)2 = (4)2 = 16

Next compute the average of these values, and take the square root:
(9+1+1+1+0+0+4+16)/8 = 4 = variance
square root of 4 is 2 = Standard deviation
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Example of Normal Curve

This quantity is the population standard deviation; it is equal to
the square root of the variance.

A slightly more complicated real life example, the

average height for adult men in the United States is about 70", with
a standard deviation of around 3". This means that most men (about
68%, assuming a normal distribution) have a height within 3" of the
mean (67"73") one standard deviation and almost all men
(about 95%) have a height within 6" of the mean (64"76") two
standard deviations. If the standard deviation were zero, then all
men would be exactly 70" tall. If the standard deviation were 20",
then men would have much more variable heights, with a typical
range of about 50"90". Three standard deviations account for
99.7% of the sample population being studied, assuming the
distribution is normal (bell-shaped).
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Normal Curve or Bell Curve

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Multivariate Analysis
Not as scary as it sounds

Involves observation and analysis of more than one

statistical variable at a time. In design and analysis, the
technique is used to perform trade studies across multiple
dimensions while taking into account the effects of all
variables on the responses of interest.

Example:
During a production process, a number of different
measurements such as the tensile strength, brittleness,
diameter, etc. are taken on the same unit. Collectively such
data are viewed as multivariate data.
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Pearson Correlation
The Pearson correlation measures the correlation or strength
of linear dependence between two variables X and Y.

It returns values between +1 and 1 inclusive.

1 implies that Y increases as X increases.
0 implies that there is no linear correlation between the
variables.
1 implies that Y decreases as X increases.
For 1 and 1, a linear equation exists that describes the
relationship between X and Y perfectly.
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Public Library Use Determinants

Total Library Reference Public Total

Population Total Collection
Circulation Visits Transaction Hours Staff
2010 10,069,700 18,379,134 47,155,895 39,392,010 9,513,049 882,799 2,995
2009 9,446,298 17,856,414 47,811,748 40,852,165 8,734,545 907,316 3,105
2008 9,319,532 17,646,302 43,663,621 36,979,778 7,994,164 905,630 3,109
2007 9,098,140 17,056,943 40,816,175 35,703,912 8,275,923 896,848 3,018
2006 8,789,529 16,496,624 40,735,627 31,952,301 8,547,509 887,400 3,038
2005 8,650,046 16,041,499 41,155,342 31,557,896 8,571,452 868,892 2,796
2004 8,510,563 16,040,938 40,269,048 31,285,987 8,076,037 871,401 2,821

Mean 9,126,258 17,073,979 43,086,779 35,389,150 8,530,383 888,612 2,983

Median 9,098,140 17,056,943 41,155,342 35,703,912 8,547,509 887,400 3,018
Mode #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Variance 541,635,247,329. 1,581,668,337,779. 19,057,194,894,718. 28,421,398,103,038 485,335,050,482.728 441,888,716 29,827

Standard
Deviation 540,046.06 922,858.37 3,203,367.99 3,912,010.96 511,208.62 15,425.31 126.73
Correlation 0.922 0.715 0.490
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Public Library Use Determinants

by Diana Very, 4/1/2011

This hypothesis was based on an assumption that library users only

used the libraries for new books and best sellers that are provided when
the budget is available to buy them. The library materials budget was
used as the independent variable assuming that the circulation was
dependent on the amount available in the budget. Using the Pearson
correlation coefficient of r for determining the extent to which these
variables are related produced an r coefficient of -0.502 which means
that there is good evidence that these variables are not correlated.
The circulation statistics are generated by the library visits, which would
lend itself to project that marketing to more of the library service
population would increase circulation and use of library materials rather
than spending more money for new materials. When making a decision
about marketing budget or materials budget, this study may prove to be
helpful.
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Where to get statistics?

Statistics are everywhere. The statistics that you want to
use will depend on what decision you want to make from
them.
Some questions that come up for libraries
Who are our customers?
Can we bring in more users?
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Public Library Statistical Survey - IMLS

http://harvester.census.gov/imls/publib.asp

Public Libraries in the United States:

Fiscal Year 2008
Release Date: June 2010
Revised Date: January 2011

http://harvester.census.gov/imls/pubs/pls/index.asp
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Academic Library Statistical Survey

Academic Libraries: 2008 First Look
http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2010348

National Center for Education Statistics

FY2008 edition provides stats on 3,827
academic libraries
Circulations
Public Service Hours
Gate Count
Collection Numbers & Types
Staff
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Public School Library/Media Center

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/getpubcats.asp?sid=041#

Several reports are available at this site, but only to 2000.

Federal Libraries and Media Centers reports are also

available, but not up to date.

Digest of Education Statistics, 2010

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2011015
Contains up-to-date stats for education from kindergarten
through graduate school.
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Public Library Data Service

Statistical Report
The survey for 2010 data is the 23rd edition of the annual
survey.
This report is created from a survey sent to 9,272 valid
U.S. and Canadian libraries through web contacts.
1,105 responded to the questionnaire.
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Census Data
Home page of data sets and instructions
http://www.census.gov/acs/www /

American Community Survey Provides demographics

such as population number, races, housing, education,
etc., for states, counties, and municipalities
http://www.census.gov/acs/www /

Guidance for data users provides instruction on using

the data and finding the correct data set
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/guidance_for_data_user
s/guidance_main
/
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Other Examples of Library Stats

2011 State of Americas Libraries ALA Releases
Annual Report : http://
ala.org/ala/newspresscenter/mediapresscenter/americasli
braries2011/index.cfm
Library Research Service Colorado Library Stats
http://www.lrs.org/pub_stats.php
Current Look at Georgia Public Libraries FY 2010
http://www.georgialibraries.org/lib/publiclibinfo/
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Where to find comparative statistics

This depends on what type of comparisons you want to
make
In Georgia, the library directors want to compare their
system with others in Georgia
In DeKalb County, Georgia, the library branch managers
want to compare their branches to other libraries within
the county system.
The Public Library Survey from IMLS provides data for
states to compare their state data with other states.
Peer-to-peer comparisons;
Im ok just so Im better than youOh, my!
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Compare this year with last year

Use a trend analysis (compares different years of same
statistic) for staff motivation, accountability reports,
marketing and promotional activities.
Stats to Use:
Circulation
Visits
Program attendance
Genre Circulation
Library Cards
Try per capita calculations
Library Cards per capita
Program attendance per capita
Identify the % not participating.
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A table of usable statistics

Population Total Total Library Reference Public Total
Collection Circulation Visits Trans- Hours Staff
action

2010 10,069,700 18,379,134 47,155,895 39,392,010 9,513,049 882,799 2,995

2009 9,446,298 17,856,414 47,811,748 40,852,165 8,734,545 907,316 3,105

2008 9,319,532 17,646,302 43,663,621 36,979,778 7,994,164 905,630 3,109

2007 9,098,140 17,056,943 40,816,175 35,703,912 8,275,923 896,848 3,018

2006 8,789,529 16,496,624 40,735,627 31,952,301 8,547,509 887,400 3,038

2005 8,650,046 16,041,499 41,155,342 31,557,896 8,571,452 868,892 2,796

2004 8,510,563 16,040,938 40,269,048 31,285,987 8,076,037 871,401 2,821

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How to make the decision Step 1

1. Whats the situation?

4% budget cut
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How to make the decision Step 2

2. Decision tree
Reduce staff already skeleton staff
Furlough staff not fair to staff
Reduce hours possibility
Reduce library collection budget cut last
year to nearly nothing
Reduce outreach services agreements
already in place
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How to make the decision Step 3

3. Justify how to reduce hours
Check into patterns of library use
Check into staff efficiencies
Check into circulation and reference
use
Check into website hits and WIFI
traffic
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Group Work
Name a statistic or set of statistics
that will answer:
Patterns of library use
Staff efficiencies
Circulation and Reference use
Website and WIFI traffic
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If you want to know about

patterns of library use,
you would collect what
type of data?

Reference contacts by hour

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If you want to know about

staff efficiencies, you
would collect what type of
data?

Circulations per FTE

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If you want to know about

circulation and
reference use, you would
collect what
type of data?
Collection turnover rate (circulation/collection)
Hint hint
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If you want to know about

website hits and WIFI
traffic, you would collect
what type
of data?

Create a Logic Model
Project Title
Project Description
Resources
In order to accomplish
set of activities, we will
need the following:
Name of resources
State, Federal
Or Other Funding Source
Other Results
Anecdotal Information
Exemplary Reason
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Logic Model Template
Grant Period Total Cost
Activities/Methods Outputs Outcomes Impacts
In order to address We expect that We expect changes Organizational, community
our problem we will these activities will in attitudes, behaviors, or procedural level changes
conduct the following produce the following knowledge, skills resulted from this project.
activities: evidence of service resulted from this
delivery project
Name of activities Number of items Increased number Increased Number
Percentage Increase Percentage increase
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Example Using the Logic Model

Logic Model
Project Title Grant Period Total Cost
Ourtown Summer Library Program 4/1/11 - 9/15/11 $1,000 per library system
Project Description
Ourtown public library and school library will work together to bring library activity day
every Wednesday afternoon to the local mall's center staging area. Teenagers will be
hired as mentors and activities will involve reading and writing stories about animals.

Resources Activities/Methods Outputs Outcomes Impacts

In order to accomplish In order to address We expect that We expect changes Organizational, community

set of activities, we will our problem we will or underway these in attitudes, behaviors, or procedural level changes
need the following: conduct the following activities will produce knowledge, skills resulted from this project.
activities: the following evidence resulted from this
of service delivery project

Grant - LSTA Funding Publicity number of patrons new patrons Increased attendance
served
Staff Craft Activities Increased family services
number of computer Patrons comfortable
Volunteers Reading Stories classes with computer use Improved library services

Computer Training number of activities Library skills increased

number of days of library behavioral

activities problems decreased
because of project
attendance

Other Results

Anecdotal Information

Exemplary Reason
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Pictures often say more than words

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Tell the 2011 Clifford Presentation Story

1,518 participants
15 programs
@ a Cost of

62
Per Participant
http://animoto.com/play/jSIexmvTn8wimFaCnajcbw
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Use Statistics to Make Informed Decisions

When is the busiest time at the library?
Do I need more staff to keep up?
Do we really need a new building or can we rearrange the
current facility?
Should we arrange the fiction by genre or alphabetically
by author?
Why is our teen collection not being used? Old collection?
Hidden in the middle of the picture books? Teens dont
know about our books?
Would the community support the program if they knew
the benefits?
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Thank you!!
Contact information:
Diana Very
Georgia Public Library Service
1800 Century Place, Ste. 150
Atlanta, GA 30345

404-235-7156
dvery@georgialibraries.org
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References
Standard Deviation from Wikipedia retrieved on 5/12/2011
from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
PLA - Public Library Data Service Statistical
Report. 2010. Presented by the PLA/ALA, ordering
information found at http://
pla.org/ala/mgrps/divs/pla/plapublications/pldsstat
report/index.cfm

IMLS - Public Libraries in the United States: Fiscal

Year 2008. Only available on-line at http://
harvester.census.gov/imls/pubs/pls/pub_detail.as
p?id=130
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References, cont.
Smith, Mark. 1996. Collecting and using public library
statistics: A how-to-do-it manual for librarians, Number
56. Neal-Schuman Publishers, Inc.
2011 State of Americas Libraries ALA Releases Annual
Report :
http://ala.org/ala/newspresscenter/mediapresscenter/amer
icaslibraries2011/index.cfm
Library Research Service - Colorado Statistics http
://www.lrs.org/pub_stats.php
Multivariate Analysis Concepts, retrieved from http://
support.sas.com/publishing/pubcat/chaps/56903.pdf
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References, cont. 2
Multivariate analysis, retrieved from Wikipedia, http://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivariate_analysis
Very, Diana. 2011. Public Library Use Determinants, p 13,
e-mail for copy dianajvery@gmail.com.