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  • Forecasts Based On Time Series Data

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    Jule Lazaga
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    The document discusses various forecasting techniques based on time series data including naive forecasting, moving averages, exponential smoothing, and linear trend equations. It provides examples of how to calculate a weighted moving average forecast and exponential smoothing forecast and defines the components of a linear trend equation for forecasting.

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    forcasting

    Original Title

    Forecasts Based on Time Series Data

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    The document discusses various forecasting techniques based on time series data including naive forecasting, moving averages, exponential smoothing, and linear trend equations. It provides examples of how to calculate a weighted moving average forecast and exponential smoothing forecast and defines the components of a linear trend equation for forecasting.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    16 views14 pages

    Forecasts Based On Time Series Data

    Uploaded by

    Jule Lazaga
    The document discusses various forecasting techniques based on time series data including naive forecasting, moving averages, exponential smoothing, and linear trend equations. It provides examples of how to calculate a weighted moving average forecast and exponential smoothing forecast and defines the components of a linear trend equation for forecasting.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
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    of 14

    FORECASTS BASED

    ON TIME SERIES
    DATA
    Time series
    Trend
    Seasonality
    Cycles
    Irregular variation
    Random variation
    Nave forecasting
    Techniques for
    averaging
    Moving average
    Weighted moving average
    Period Demand
    1 42
    2 40
    3 43
    4 40
    5 41

    a. f6=.10(40)+.20(43)+.30(40)+.40(41)
    = 41.0
    Exponential Smoothing
    =.10 =.40

    Period Actual Forecast Error Forecast Error


    demand
    1 42 --- --- --- ---
    2 40 42 -2 42 -2
    3 43 41.8 1.2 41.2 1.8
    4 40 41.92 -1.92 41.92 -1.92
    5 41 41.73 -.73 41.15 -.15
    Techniques for Trend
    Linear trend equation

    Ft = a+bt
    Ft= forecast report for t
    a= value of Ft at t=0
    b= slope of the line
    t= specified number of periods from t=0

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